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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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Figured it out be a good time for a new thread as we enter springtime. It looks like the next 2 weeks will feature warmer than normal temps.

https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/predictions/610day/610temp.new.gif8 to 14 Day Outlook - Temperature Probability

Temps for the winter- (Dec-Feb)

BUF: +1.77

Dec: +6.8

Jan: -3.6

Feb: +2.1

ROC: -1.1

Dec: +4.7

Jan: -6.7

Feb: -1.3

WAT: -1.2

Dec: +5.3

Jan: -9.1

Feb: +0.2

SYR: +1.77

Dec: +7.6

Jan: -4.6

Feb: +2.3

BING: +0.2

Dec: +6.1

Jan: -4.9

Feb: -0.7

Watertown and Rochester had colder than normal winters, while BUF and SYR had warmer than normal winters. Rochesters winter temp was 3 degrees colder than both Buf and Syr, that's difficult to believe. Binghamton right around average for winter temps. Nice warmup later this week, a chance at some 60s.

Weather Story from NWS Buffalo, NY

Looking further ahead

Week 3-4 Outlooks - Temperature Probability

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The back to back storms this week dumped nearly 20" at kbgm. Up to 65.2 on the season and only 1.2 behind Ksyr. My grade for the winter has risen from D- to a C+ as of now. Another warning level snowfall would probably jump it to either a B- or B, but that looks unlikely at this point.

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7 hours ago, brentrich said:

It's not spring yet, models are showing winter is making epic comeback on last week of March into early April for Midwest and NE. We will see at least 1 more snowstorm. 

Soon, many snows come.

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2 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Lake Erie also keeps us cool this time of year. =/

sfct.us_ne.png

You can micro it down even more.  This was last Sunday when we had our first “nice” day.  15-20 degrees cooler on the lake vs a few miles inland.  Need to get a nice jump on the sunny days and above normal temps in April so we can swing right into summer weather by Memorial Day.  Just booked a cottage the 2nd week of July in Sherkston so I want Erie nice and toasty early this summer!  As much as I enjoy the snowy weather I’ve had my fill.  Solid B+ winter.  The lake effect season was rather tame for my area, but had some nice synoptic thumps to make up for it.  The staying power of the snow pack was incredible this season.  Think we still see another small overnight snowfall or two but feel like were done with the real artic cold after this weekend.   

 

D262E99A-1020-4CA4-AA08-1114ED68101E.jpeg

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4 hours ago, BuffaloWeather said:

April is my least favorite month around here as the cool weather hangs around too long. Hoping we go right to 60s and sunshine instead of 40s and rain.

Cold, rainy stretches in April are the worst. We're hitting the time of year where I'm always hoping for above average temps.

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Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be.

We went skiing at Plattekill.  The clouds lifted out by 11.  It was a beautiful bluebird day.  

The skiing was great too.

We got home to central Otsego county.  My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure.

Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before.

It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday.

If I can't have snow I want sun!

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3 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be.

We went skiing at Plattekill.  The clouds lifted out by 11.  It was a beautiful bluebird day.  

The skiing was great too.

We got home to central Otsego county.  My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure.

Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before.

It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday.

If I can't have snow I want sun!

Kind of agree on the snow or sun, at least by late winter or spring. But have to say, in the dead of winter, cold cloudy days with some lake effect has its appeal. Living near the coast there is usually clearing right after a storm. Kind of nice to have "wintry" weather expanded after a storm, or get dessert snow.  Though by mid March...the clouds are not appreciated.

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22 minutes ago, cny rider said:

Yesterday made me realize how grey and gloomy central NY can be.

We went skiing at Plattekill.  The clouds lifted out by 11.  It was a beautiful bluebird day.  

The skiing was great too.

We got home to central Otsego county.  My dark blue Subaru parked in a completely open area was still snow covered, as was our back walkway with direct southern sun exposure.

Both had the inch or so that had fallen the night before.

It's pretty obvious there was little or no sun here yesterday.

If I can't have snow I want sun!

I have been noticing this too.  It’s hard to blame essentially all of my friends who no longer live in the area.  Less job opportunities and more miserable weather here.  There are so many overcast days where it’s not really raining or snowing, but just gloomy.  That does take a toll on most people over time.  

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9 minutes ago, winter_rules said:

I have been noticing this too.  It’s hard to blame essentially all of my friends who no longer live in the area.  Less job opportunities and more miserable weather here.  There are so many overcast days where it’s not really raining or snowing, but just gloomy.  That does take a toll on most people over time.  

Even though I love the snow/winter I suffer a little from SAD. To combat this I go tanning once a week during the mid winter season. Yes I know its bad for me but I feel amazing when I walk out of there in mid winter. Also important to supplement vitamin D.

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15 minutes ago, BuffaloWeather said:

Even though I love the snow/winter I suffer a little from SAD. To combat this I go tanning once a week during the mid winter season. Yes I know its bad for me but I feel amazing when I walk out of there in mid winter. Also important to supplement vitamin D.

Imagine if we hated snow like many (most?) people.  I can’t understand why so many people live in upstate NY but hate snow.  Thankfully I get excited about snowstorms.  For me, it is exciting to track, exciting to watch it snow, and then it leads to long-term outdoor enjoyment following the actual snow event.  Now imagine dreading each snowfall and then being confined indoors until it melts.  I suppose that is a significant contributing factor to why so much of our upstate NY population is overweight. 

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There is high confidence that the weather will be very unsettled for
the weekend. While there is still a fair amount of spread between
the various guidance package solutions...there is strong consensus
that a robust southern stream shortwave will impact our region with
widespread pcpn Saturday...followed by a colder day Sunday with some
snow showers. Its in the details that confidence drops off the
table.

The main variables keeping uncertainty in the forecast is whether
two systems will phase over the Ohio valley/Great Lakes by the
weekend...and as is typically the case from this forecast range...
how reliable is the sampling of the driving mid level energy that is
currently still more than a 1000 miles off the west coast of the
Pacific Northwest.

The main feature will be a sfc low that will be consolidating and
deepening over the Ohio Valley Friday night. As this system
approaches...widespread steady pcpn will spread across all of our
forecast area. While the scenario favors just rain at this point...
its not out of the question that a slightly more southern track
could allow for some wet snow.

The system will then pass by during the day Saturday. The GFS is the
outlier of the major packages...taking the low by to our west and at
a faster clip than its Canadian and European counterparts. This
solution is not part of our forecast. Will lean heavily on the 4D
VAR assimilated guidance from the ECMWF and NH Canadian...which
track the low near or just south of us. That should keep widespread
steady pcpn over our area on Saturday...likely as rain. It would not
take much of a jog to the south though to give us wet snow...but
like the GFS solution...this would be an outlier.

The pcpn is forecast to taper off Saturday night and Sunday with
colder air changing the leftover pcpn to snow showers. It is
possible that it could be rather windy on Sunday as well.
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8 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Ya never know. It’s March. GFS says no way Jose.
Stratospheric warming event could send a piece of the PV to us in 10-14 days. I still feel like I’m owed a big one. Today is the Storm of the Century anniversary, so don’t tell me it’s too late. 

With NAO going negative after March 23rd to April 10th, I would say there's a high chance we will be seeing PV in that tim frame. 

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33 minutes ago, rochesterdave said:

Ya never know. It’s March. GFS says no way Jose.
Stratospheric warming event could send a piece of the PV to us in 10-14 days. I still feel like I’m owed a big one. Today is the Storm of the Century anniversary, so don’t tell me it’s too late. 

My first year in NY, the best Lake effect snow event of the season that I experienced happened when I was NOT living on the Tug, but had moved in with friends in Sylvan Beach (Oneida County) temporarily. It happened on APRIL 1st. 1 foot of snow there. (Bville picked up around 6 inches from that one.)

Then my first winter in Bville, our best synoptic snowfall (and OVERachiever) came on MARCH 23rd. We were supposed to get a trace to 2 inches, and the North Syracuse Burbs was plastered in about 7 inches of wet snow. Here's a pic I took in the middle of the event;

 

90650454_1071548849889519_7164159149427654656_n.jpg

That was the year we picked up several more accumulating snowfalls, and had 2 inches here in mid May...with some surviving until the next day. Spring has seemed to provide more wintry surprises here in recent years than the winters have. I doubt we're done with snowfall for the season. Could still have snowfall for another 2 more months! :P 

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