SouthBuffaloSteve

That’s a big fire...

Gonna have to keep an eye on the lake band late tonight into early tomorrow. Maybe see some graupel? Now, northeast of Lake Erie including Buffalo Metro will be tricky as temps will fall quickly and some patchy frost may try to start to form in outlying areas away from the city. However, just as that occurs, arrival of upstream shortwave and swath of deeper moisture in large scale trough swing across which along with sw low-level flow with H85 temps -2c will set up a lake response off Lake Erie aimed toward Buffalo Metro. Forecast soundings show lake equilibrium levels climbing toward 20kft, so lake response could be robust, at least briefly. Pops were already high, but increased QPF some. Heavest lake effect could produce rain amounts over 0.50 inch later tonight if they stay stationary long enough. As this lake effect ramps up, expect temps later tonight downstream of Lake Erie to rise back into the 40s.

I would agree at this point it’s like the old chicken pox days... Get it and get it over with. Yes there is a portion of the population that is high risk and will develop severe complications but the vast majority of the population will experience nothing more than a common cold. Those at highest risk should take extra precautions and avoid exposure situations. The rest should get back to a new normal way of life. Still mask up and social distance... but we need to keep opening more up. The purpose was to flatten the curve, not make it zero. Sure the infection rates are slowly climbing across the us and worldwide but I’m not hearing about overwhelmed hospitals. I feel they are much more prepared now to diagnose and more effectively treat higher risk patients that have a chance to pull through. We’re not seeing massive spread through business, workplaces, shopping centers, grade schools, restaurants, etc... we are seeing rapid spread through assisted living facilities, college campuses, and sports teams. Again looking at the persons physical well-being I would be interested to compare the numbers. Take the two nursing homes that are having an outbreak and see what percent needed hospital care or worse who died. Then compare it to the percent of college kids or athletes... I mean look at the NFL players getting it and 10 days later they are back on the field playing at peak performance. How? Look at Trump. Would be classified a higher risk individual. He gets it, actually falls pretty ill then gets a drug cocktail and jacked up on steroids and 48 hours later he’s out of the hospital and on a bender. Maybe the focus needs to be less on the vaccine that doesn’t exist yet and more on current treatments that are yielding positive outcomes.

Put this together like 12 years ago...

I lived in West Seneca at the time. Only had 13” at my location and our power was back on much sooner than most, only 3 1/2 days, but the destruction was unmatched. Wish I took more video during the night but honestly once the power went out you couldn’t see anything and for the first time ever weather watching I felt my safety was in danger wandering around outside. One thing I’ll never forgot was that sound the breaking branches would make. That creak... creak... creak... SNAP... Pre smart phone days and we had to listen to the battery radio for any news updates. Such a close 2nd on my all time list,

Exciting news for sure but we’ve seen these pickups before and they never pay off with our current team culture. This team has had enough pieces to put together a good run but it’s been a decade since they have had any kind of team chemistry to keep stringing together winning streaks. They have no back bone and let teams come in and push them around and wonder why they can’t win. The dumpster might now be on fire just yet, but it’s filled with gas and the matches aren’t far away. Don’t get me wrong I want to see the Sabres excel this year but they need a full blown culture change through the organization to get it done. And give me crap if you want... Eichel is great player but I don’t see him being the leader the team actually needs.

Gonna be a fun week model watching.

GFS says LAKE EFFECT next weekend...

If the KC game gets flexed you Sunday maybe an October Snow Game?

I think it all depends how the storm impacted you with how it would rate. Would be hard for me to rank a storm I didn’t live through or don’t really remember. I’d say... 1. Nov 2014. Just epic. 2. Oct 2006. The destruction was just insane. 3. Dec 2001. Crazy snow total but really didn’t have a huge impact like Nov 2014 did. 4. Dec 2010. Was right in the small sweet spot for this one. Was also stranded in my vehicle for 4 hours. 5. Nov 2000. The impact to the downtown commute has never been repeated. Sleep Pick. Jan 2017. The intensity and timing of that band 28” in 6 hours not well forecasted hitting the height of the PM commute.

He just tweeted a “proof of life” video as he was leaving the White House.

This would be that cell. Would have been right down my line of sight along the lakeshore.

Was hoping for some sunset spout watching but storms came in too late and was too dark. Got a few nice lightning shot. Quality sucks uploading to here. Thoughts on the red circle? Waterspout?

Ain’t no quit with the action off Erie tonight. Another round firing up right over top of us...