PerintonMan

I'd appreciate a Discord invite so I can see the discussion. Thanks!

Dave Wasserman (election Twitter) fan?

That Monroe County gradient lol

Hope you get smoked again. Looks like another event of major headlines in the area but likely getting skunked (or flash frozen) here in SE Monroe County.

Where did everyone go?

I have a 2008 Accord, which I am desperately trying to upgrade to a Rav4 Prime. The Honda runs fine at 105K miles, but I'm ready for something new (and not entirely gas-powered).

Wouldn't mind going full blast into Spring at this point, but only if a warm March/April doesn't portend a cold May. What I can stand is it being 50 degrees for 2 straight months.

Yeah, my fear was that the "gap" the models latched onto was actually under-done, and I was right. Haven't been outside yet but I would estimate 2-3". About what I called for ROC a few days ago based on the trends. Pretty disappointing that, while the overall season numbers are decent, we have an exceptionally hard time getting a noteworthy event around here. Maybe that's just how it goes in WNY? (When I lived in CT or Boston, we got half the annual snowfall as we do here, but were good for at least 1-2 big events a year.)

That persistent hole in western Monroe County and environs might not even get advisory-level totals.

Models persistently showing a hole over interior WNY. Someone is going to get skunked. Others will do pretty well.

I know this is a SYR-focused forecast, but 1-3" for the Thruway corridor from basically Del Lago on west is much lower than anyone else.

I would smash the "Deal" button on 4-12" here, because it's honestly looking more like a 2-3" type event and at this point would be stunned to even get 6".

Gradient should be much sharper. Syracuse area could very well get 8-12", but in that case BUF-ROC is not going to be 4-8". My guess: SYR - 10" ROC - 3" BUF - 2"

The low going over water at any point pretty much takes BUF-ROC out of the game for anything approaching a warning level event.

Low from Harrisburg to Albany to VT = bonanza Low from PHL to Hartford to NH = so-so Low from Atlantic City to Cape Cod = goodnight We'll see.

NWS: "low far to the SE, big snows only for ENY and VT" NAM/RGEM: low over Scranton, rain for ENY and VT Well, somebody is going to look awfully silly here.

Silver lining: they're not all blasting out to Nova Scotia and we're still in the game. Average this and the Euro and we're in business.

Yeah, the Euro scenario is what I'm afraid of. Low hugs the coast, we're on the fringe, congratulations northern New England.

Really need to keep that low on shore, preferably Albany-ish and not Worcester-Boston-ish. I don't trust hoping for an expansive precip shield or backside lake enhancement.

Smashing that "Deal" button. Lock it in plz.

We need to keep this thing in the Harrisburg-Albany corridor. My concern here isn't that it cuts, but that it makes a beeline for Boston and we end up relying on wrap-around and lake enhancement, which is iffy.

Can we get a 960 low tracking from Scranton to Albany? As we say at the poker table -- "one time!"

Congrats, Minneapolis, I guess.

Woke up to 3-4" on the ground and a thin layer of ice. Wow, did not expect mix to get this far. Light freezing drizzle at 23 degrees on my way in. Honestly never saw mixed precipitation with surface temps that low until I moved here. Changed back to sleet and now snow. We'll see if the back side/lake enhancement can get us close to the expected 6".

I was gonna say maybe the Sierras or Colorado for you. Somewhere the elevation produces a lot of snow in winter and mild temps in summer.