PerintonMan

This would be a dream setup if I still lived in Boston. Nemo in 2013 was pretty epic.

Oof, band looks like it's disintegrating over WNY. Hope the pure lake effect salvages this (and this is why it's dangerous to rely on backside -- it's always hit or miss).

Here in SE Monroe County, I heard occasional sleet overnight, but probably mixed with snow at worst. Have about 9-10" right now, mostly powder, only a thin layer of sleet towards the bottom. Mostly light between 5-9 am, but now moderate and looking like that will persist. NWS has most of the south shore getting an additional 6" through tomorrow and that would be a pretty good showing overall. Only disappointment is being on the fringe of mix/slot for the early morning. Congrats, Buffalo/Niagara/Toronto. Regrets, Syracuse.

Looks on radar like Monroe County should stay in at least moderate snow as it pivots. Big, big win to not get "uncovered" and stay there for hours.

Yeah this scenario is what I was worried about. Not quite the disaster of SYR, but far from the jackpot of BUF. Solid front end though, and if we can get slow and steady snow and lake enhancement, maybe grind out another 6" to get into 12-15" I would take that.

Hoping the dry slot fills in quickly, or at least that we start getting some wind direction favorable for lake enhancement. BUF through Niagara frontier definitely the jackpot zone.

Yes, really hope that fills in or pivots.

I'm not seeing it yet

Would love to see that plume of snow from Richmond through Corning keep flowing straight north.

We saw the wavy clouds too, with a more solid cloud bank to the south. Reminded me of hurricane outflow and outer bands.

Would definitely take ROC having a 70% chance of >12".

I told my wife earlier today that this was like a poor man's Blizzard of 93. She wasn't sure if it was a complement or an insult. I said it was like calling Kobe Bryant a poor man's Michael Jordan. Regardless of what happens in our backyards, a very impressive setup and appearance on satellite and radar.

Honestly I'm enjoying the gallows humor.

Like to see that after the 12" line (basically a proxy for mix/dry zone) was charging west for 2-3 straight updates and was well across Monroe.

If I get woken up at 2 am by heavy sleet with a low over Harrisburg, I will not be happy about that. We need to be piling up 6-8" overnight or this could really go sideways.

Tightening up the precip shield like that is probably the difference between getting 6" and getting 12" IMBY.

Man, there is like zero wiggle-room verbatim. You're either getting 3"/hr or nothing

I would take that in a heartbeat.

How is it a step in the right direction if the dry slot is even more pronounced and west? Ha, this was basically my pessimistic scenario where ROC has to dink and dunk its way to just short of a warning-level event.

If that's all snow in ROC I'll smash the "deal" button. Condolences: YYZ, BGM.

But it blows the deformation band much farther west. Verbatim, this is the difference between ROC being in the jackpot zone vs. being in the "good, but not great" zone.

Yes, my prediction leans pessimistic (though if I were going full pessimist, I'd say that ROC struggles to even get 4-5" with the taint and dry slot lasting most of the duration after a few initial inches and the backside failing to materialize). I think ROC could easily get 16"+ if the models showing us getting into the monster band for at least a few hours are accurate.

Prediction based largely on gut feeling: - Taint and periphery of dry slot cuts right through Monroe County; monster band stays over BUF/Niagara and up towards Toronto TOR: 14" NIA: 21" BUF: 19" ROC: 8" (mostly light-moderate snow, just missing the heavy stuff) SYR: 6" (mostly backside) BGM: 3" (mostly sleet)

Not liking how it's bringing the 12" line back into Monroe County. The NAM run was hideous and shows the potential for a really ugly sleet to dry slot solution with the monster band just to our NW. I feel like the two outcomes IMBY are: A. ticks a little east, stay all snow, mostly in the monster band + some backside lake-enhancement --> 16" B. ticks a little west, front end thump, then taint, then mostly dry slot + back end fizzles out --> slow and steady 4-6"

969. Nice.