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PerintonMan

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Everything posted by PerintonMan

  1. PerintonMan
    So much for the sharp E/W cutoff.
  2. PerintonMan
    Radar filling in and snow picking up (finally) in SE Monroe. I knew there was bust potential, but I didn't think it was from precip overshooting us to the west.
  3. PerintonMan
    Hmm, still likes 5-6" for me. I guess we'll see.
  4. PerintonMan
    Starting to get concerned about this. Shouldn't this have been firing by now if we were going to get significant returns in Monroe County?
  5. PerintonMan
    That Monroe County gradient tho. 2" on one side, 8" on the other. If the cutoff is like 20 miles farther east, everyone gets skunked.
  6. PerintonMan
    Pixie dust falling here again. Looks like about 1.5" of it in the last 24 hours. Still holding out hope that the HRDPS is onto something with the south shore action.
  7. PerintonMan
    Monroe County has been predicted to have insane gradients pretty much the whole time. I just hope I end up on the right side of it. I didn't harbor any illusions about getting into the synoptic game on this one and was deferring to people who know how LES plays out in this sort of scenario.
  8. PerintonMan
    lol, forget your flow, man, I want the synoptic.
  9. PerintonMan
    Party is over in NYC already? I thought they had at least another 6-8 hours.
  10. PerintonMan
    I wouldn't be surprised at all if ROC west gets skunked like that, but that is way, way underdoing the NYC area.
  11. PerintonMan
    It's cheating to throw in a prediction after kickoff, but here goes anyway. This is predicated on a fairly sharp E/W cutoff and spotty LES off of Ontario on the northerly flow. BUF: 2" ROC: 6" (could be anywhere from 2 to 10" and I wouldn't be surprised) SYR: 16" (I think they just get into the main synoptic action) BGM: 18" ALB: 15" NYC: 22" Jackpot: Somewhere between Allentown and Poughkeepsie: 32"
  12. PerintonMan
    Is that all snow? Jesus.
  13. PerintonMan
    I hate what the NAM shows, but it feels realistic for WNY. We needed NYC to be getting taint and dry-slot for us to get in on any of the synoptic action. We're going to be relying entirely on LES off the northerly flow here on the south shore.
  14. PerintonMan
    Steady light snow here, though I suppose this isn't the main event. Spitballing: seems like the low is developing a bit farther off the coast than we'd want for WNY. These models showing the low near NJ tomorrow -- is it expected to be basically stationary for 24 hours? That would be an absolute monster, long-duration event for NYC, the Poconos, the Hudson Valley, and maybe interior southern New England.
  15. PerintonMan
    I'm going to take the under on this 7-8" IMBY. My prediction: this is just a longer-duration version of what I got a few days ago -- forecasted 4-5" of a decent LES band that turned out to be basically 24 hours of snow showers. I think over 36-48 hours we end up with 2-3".
  16. PerintonMan
    I got a decent hit from that one in central CT, at 6 years old. My wife was in Syracuse and tells me they got 40". Just insane.
  17. PerintonMan
    My kingdom for a Miller A. Just one time I want to see a track from Atlanta through Albany.
  18. PerintonMan
    I will eat my hat if the low ends up in the middle of Maine. That kind of track just does not happen.
  19. PerintonMan
    lol, really tired of the 5" call for IMBY. Twice in the last week that turned into 1-2" in reality, and frankly I'd expect the same this week.
  20. PerintonMan
    It's been snowing lightly all day but not amounting to very much. Maybe another inch on top of last night, if that.
  21. PerintonMan
    I was going to ask what the hell happened. We were forecast for 4-5". I snowblowed the remnants from earlier this week at 9 pm, it was flurrying. I figured, well, maybe it'll pick up overnight. Wake up 7 am, still flurrying, and had maybe 0.5-1" of fluff on the ground. It never picked up. So that's two events this week that were expected to produce 8-10" combined, instead got about 3". That pretty much sums up this winter.
  22. PerintonMan
    This would be terrific IMBY. I'm just northeast of the corner of the notch in SE Monroe County. But the gradient is going to be super tight.
  23. PerintonMan
    And that does it here. Light to moderate snow for 2 hours, heavy snow for 1 hour. Maybe 2"? We'll see if there's anything on the back end. So far, well short of the expected 4-6".
  24. PerintonMan
    Picked up again here. Radar shows an hour of heavy snow and then nothing.
  25. PerintonMan
    Moderate snow now. No hint of mixing yet. I'm about 5 miles north of the 490/90 interchange.
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