PerintonMan

I lived in Boston during Nemo in 2013. 24", most of it in about 12 hours.

I believe the 10%-90% range for ROC was like 8-20", with a median of 15". That's extraordinary for ROC.

*chef's kiss*

Wish we could hold onto that band for longer. Somewhere will get slammed as that band pivots right over them as the low moves through. That's how BGM got 40" last year.

Do we get into that deformation band before it's launched into Ottawa? How reliable is the backside action with that low placement?

Not a disaster but it takes the money band almost entirely into Canada. I think getting into that band is a requirement for 12"+ from this unless you end up in a backside lake band.

The low barely moved, but the dry slot/mix zone just exploded. What gives?

Don't you ____ing dare.

Oof. Deformation band blasts through and into Canada and it looks like ROC dry-slots and then relies on a good and long backside hit -- not what you want to count on.

23" in ROC and 3" in SYR would cause half this board to jump off a bridge.

ROC has been in the deformation band on almost every run -- great place to be if it holds. But there will be wiggles and wobbles, surely. Not sure which I should be more concerned about: A. low going farther SE or tighter precip shield that leaves WNY on the periphery B. low going far enough NW that the deformation band quickly lifts through into Ontatio and we end up in the dry slot (I think mix is probably out of the picture *knock on wood*)

The Euro is kind of showing my other concern -- that the deformation band lifts through this area, we get like 4" in 2 hours, then about 8 hours of flurries.

6-10" is a cop-out forecast where they're not going to miss too badly in either direction, but the variance is much higher than that. ROC could get 4" and they'd say "close enough" or we could get 16" and they'd say "well, you got the gist".

Naive question: how do these 3 models have the lows in completely different places (Harrisburg, Scranton, and well east of NJ), but the precip shield are almost exactly the same?

This is basically my prediction from yesterday. Most of us want to see the low going from Harrisburg or Philly to Albany or Springfield. This keeps it basically Atlantic City to Boston, with the heaviest snow east of Syracuse and ROC-BUF barely advisory-worthy. Really want my gut feeling to be wrong. Regardless the name of the game is getting into that deformation band, which has been insane on basically every run. Whoever's in there looking at easily 12"+. Outside of that will be a decent hit, but not remarkable.

Feels like getting a storm to ride right up the Apps is like rolling a marble along the top of a triangular prism. It just really wants to fall off to one side (into the Atlantic and over the benchmark) or the other (Jamestown).

Yeah this was basically the scenario I predicted in the other thread. Many, many days/runs to go though.

I really hope so, it would be a trend-shatterer.

I'm going for the reverse jinx.

I hate to say it, but I think you're right. T-5 days prediction: BUF: 2" ROC: 4" (despite mets protesting that their forecast of 8-12" is going to hold up in the face late model movement to the SE) SYR: 9" ALB: 16" BGM: 18" Jackpot: Manchester, NH - 23"

My kingdom for a classic Miller A. When I lived in Connecticut (growing up) and Boston (grad school) I hated Miller A's (slop-fest) and loved Miller B's (bomb off the coast). Now in WNY it's the opposite. Miller B's are a total whiff and Miller A's are our home runs. Of course, the pattern in the last few decades has gone away from Miller A's and strongly towards Miller B's. Hope this breaks the trend.

Seems like everything lately smells water and goes right for the 40/70 benchmark, or at best over SNE/Boston. It's like we need everything to go perfectly to get that track between Harrisburg/Philly/Scranton/Albany/Springfield that would cash in the entire board. As it is -- based on nothing but gut feeling and recent trends -- seems likely that Rochester on west is on the fringe of maybe a few lake effect/enhanced inches and Binghamton through Capitol Region ends up in the jackpot.

Just one time can we get a 940 low tracking from Harrisburg to Albany?

Growing up in CT in the 90s, I remember a lot of those storms where we were sweating the mix and rain line. CNY/WNY must have really cashed in.