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Upstate/Eastern New York-Springtime?


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The pattern will amplify across North America during the midweek
period, with a ridge building in the west and a sharpening trough
digging into the Great Lakes and New England. The trough will bring
a much cooler airmass into our region later in the week, with the
change in airmass marked by a strong cold frontal passage on
Tuesday.

The surface cold front will still be west of our region Tuesday
morning across Ohio and southwest Ontario, although a pre-frontal
trough and possibly a few remnant convective outflow boundaries will
support showers and scattered thunderstorms across our region
through the morning hours. Coverage of showers will increase from
west to east through the morning and early afternoon as the cold
front moves east into the area, and as DPVA/height falls spread into
the Lower Great Lakes ahead of the digging trough. A plume of high
quality Gulf of Mexico moisture will be drawn northward ahead of the
trough, with PWAT values approaching 2.0" just ahead of the cold
front Tuesday. The combination of ample moisture and increasing
forcing will support fairly widespread showers along and ahead of
the cold front Tuesday, peaking in coverage from late morning into
the afternoon.

Extensive clouds and showers starting early in the day will inhibit
destabilization, especially across Western NY. There may be a better
potential for a longer rain free window from the Finger Lakes to the
eastern Lake Ontario region. Relatively modest 20-30 knot deep layer
shear may support a few isolated strong storms in the afternoon with
gusty wind potential, if sufficient destabilization occurs over
eastern portions of the area. Any thunderstorms or heavier
convective showers will produce locally heavy rainfall given the
high PWAT environment. There appears to be enough steering flow and
eastward cold frontal push to limit residence time of heavy rain
over any one area, keeping the flooding risk relatively low (but non-
zero).

Showers and scattered thunderstorms will taper off from west to east
late Tuesday afternoon and evening with the passage of the cold
front. The mid level trough axis and associated strong vorticity
maxima will cross the lower Great Lakes later Tuesday night. The
trough itself may produce a few spotty showers. Cooling temperatures
aloft combined with very warm late summer water temperatures may
produce a lake response, with lake enhanced showers over and east of
Lake Erie and Lake Ontario later Tuesday night through Wednesday
morning. Forecast soundings suggest enough instability over the
lakes to support some thunder potential as well.

Wednesday any remaining lake effect showers in the morning will
mostly end, although there may still be a spotty shower east of Lake
Ontario into the afternoon. Wednesday night, a secondary cold front
and another shortwave will cross the Lower Great Lakes. The influx
of even cooler temperatures aloft, some added synoptic scale
moisture and ascent, and convergence along the secondary cold front
will bring a renewed chance of lake effect showers over and east of
the lakes, with a chance of some isolated thunder as well.
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You know we are getting there when we start to hear "lake effect rain"..

 

Even cooler air aloft arrives tonight, supporting the
chance of a few more lake effect showers. The best coverage of
showers will be east/southeast of Lake Ontario where better synoptic
scale moisture/forcing will be found. Expect a band of lake effect
showers to reach peak organization over Oswego County and the
southern Tug Hill by late this evening, then break apart into
scattered showers that drift south to areas southeast of the lake
overnight as boundary layer flow veers northwest. Off Lake Erie,
less available synoptic scale moisture and forcing will likely limit
the lake response, with scattered showers across the higher terrain
east of the lake peaking in coverage mid to late evening before
ending overnight.
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13 hours ago, wolfie09 said:

Crazy lightning with this..

KTYX - Super-Res Reflectivity Tilt 1, 10_03 PM.png

That line came through here around 11:30 PM with a burst of heavy rain. I’ve measured 4.85 inches of rain in August, most of which fell in the last 10 days. There’s a definite touch of fall in the air on the first day of meteorological fall. 

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