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Orangeburgwx

December 8-10, 2018 Winter Storm

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Here is a zone forecast from GSP for Gaston County. You can see where they show mixing with ZR during a time when the heaviest precip is moving through on Sunday. It will be flipping back and forth, so this would have a huge effect on totals. Also, there will be mixing on and off throughout. I am also hoping the models are not trending with the HP being weaker, like I have seen on the past 2 runs. Plenty of time, but I thought I would throw that out there. I guess beggars cannot be choosers though. This is EARLY December. This is awesome, based on our climo: 

Saturday Night

Cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Breezy with lows around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday

Freezing rain. Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Brisk. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday Night

Snow. Sleet likely after midnight. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Monday

Sleet likely in the morning. Snow and rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow or rain in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent

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Unless we see some drastic changes we just have trust what conventional wisdom tells us in these situations. Obviously north of I-40 is in the best spot for all snow, but no need to do any cliff jumping. Again even if you cut these totals in half that still a big snowstorm for EARLY december. 

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One thing I'm concerned about for the upstate storm potential. I've noticed over the years, while CAD is always underdone on the models, an arriving CAD is usually a few hours later than models show. They usually arrive later, but hold out longer.

In the upstate, we are relying on the CAD arriving during precip late Saturday night. If it builds in a few hours later than expected, we will waste all the front side precip to rain. Something to keep an eye on.

I do fully expect the entire upstate to drop in to the upper 20's when the CAD entrenches though, and seemingly we still have quite a bit of precip left to go through Sunday evening. So even without the front end thump it should be significant. (I will say that the coverage of precip is more unpredictable after the initial band goes through, so it's possible we don't get the modelled qpf after Sunday morning). But even if we just get a few tenths it would be bad from an impact stand point with temps in the upper 20's.

For the upstate, I think the later precip arrives the better as it gives more time for CAD to build in.  If we get in on the finger of precip streaking out ahead of the storm early Saturday... probably not good for us. (But great for franklinweather since he'll be snow then).

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3 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

NWS GSP update... too low on the ice accumulations, imo.

StormTotalSnow.png

StormTotalIceFcst.png

interesting, based off this graphic looks like their thinking is that the it is basically all snow from around UNCC and points north and west

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Just now, Rankin5150 said:

Here is a zone forecast from GSP for Gaston County. You can see where they show mixing with ZR during a time when the heaviest precip is moving through on Sunday. It will be flipping back and forth, so this would have a huge effect on totals. Also, there will be mixing on and off throughout. I am also hoping the models are not trending with the HP being weaker, like I have seen on the past 2 runs. Plenty of time, but I thought I would throw that out there. I guess beggars cannot be choosers though. This is EARLY December. This is awesome, based on our climo: 

Saturday Night

Cloudy. A chance of snow in the evening, then snow likely after midnight. Heavy snow accumulation possible. Breezy with lows around 30. Chance of snow 70 percent.

Sunday

Freezing rain. Snow. Additional heavy snow accumulation. Brisk. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Sunday Night

Snow. Sleet likely after midnight. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Near steady temperatures in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 90 percent.

Monday

Sleet likely in the morning. Snow and rain likely. Additional light snow accumulation possible. Highs in the mid 30s. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.

Monday Night

Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow or rain in the evening, then a chance of snow after midnight. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent

Fixed that for you ;)

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GEFS 6Z exceeds 2" qpf up to the Triad. It's good to see those beefy totals continue. It's crazy because normally we're talking about .25-.75 qpf. This one factor makes this event far different from most others in recent memory. 

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1 minute ago, burrel2 said:

One thing I'm concerned about for the upstate storm potential. I've noticed over the years, while CAD is always underdone on the models, an arriving CAD is usually a few hours later than models show. They usually arrive later, but hold out longer.

In the upstate, we are relying on the CAD arriving during precip late Saturday night. If it builds in a few hours later than expected, we will waste all the front side precip to rain. Something to keep an eye on.

I do fully expect the entire upstate to drop in to the upper 20's when the CAD entrenches though, and seemingly we still have quite a bit of precip left to go through Sunday evening. So even without the front end thump it should be significant. (I will say that the coverage of precip is more unpredictable after the initial band goes through, so it's possible we don't get the modelled qpf after Sunday morning). But even if we just get a few tenths it would be bad from an impact stand point with temps in the upper 20's.

Hey Burrell you gonna make the trip up 178 to the in laws place?

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3 minutes ago, burgertime said:

Unless we see some drastic changes we just have trust what conventional wisdom tells us in these situations. Obviously north of I-40 is in the best spot for all snow, but no need to do any cliff jumping. Again even if you cut these totals in half that is still a big snowstorm for EARLY december. 

You can remove the word big and still make headlines with that statement.

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2 minutes ago, burrel2 said:

One thing I'm concerned about for the upstate storm potential. I've noticed over the years, while CAD is always underdone on the models, an arriving CAD is usually a few hours later than models show. They usually arrive later, but hold out longer.

In the upstate, we are relying on the CAD arriving during precip late Saturday night. If it builds in a few hours later than expected, we will waste all the front side precip to rain. Something to keep an eye on.

I do fully expect the entire upstate to drop in to the upper 20's when the CAD entrenches though, and seemingly we still have quite a bit of precip left to go through Sunday evening. So even without the front end thump it should be significant. (I will say that the coverage of precip is more unpredictable after the initial band goes through, so it's possible we don't get the modelled qpf after Sunday morning). But even if we just get a few tenths it would be bad from an impact stand point with temps in the upper 20's.

Yeah, you are 1000% correct! Seen enough storms to also be leery of the highs on Friday, as we warm ahead of the front! Forecast high of 53 here, can easily see getting to 56-57 degrees! Then precip comes in early Saturday, before CAD sets up!

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I can speak from a couple instances up my way this year when CAD was overdone so just a word of caution when investing all your feelings in a final solution, with one especially being close to 60 hours away. I had a winter storm warning this year for a 1/2” of ice. Cloud cover moved in and we were able to get down to 32 but by that time it was already raining heavily. They were forecasting 30. Meanwhile @Disc over about 20 miles to my west was 29 and heavy ice in the mountains of Blacksburg. Just play the cards you are dealt. There will be plenty more this year for all of us worst case scenario.

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3 minutes ago, WinstonSalemArlington said:

Tim Buckley:  For those asking, the ground temperature in Greensboro is 41°. It will be a non-factor this weekend.

We had a nice hard freeze this morning here with a low of 23 and a heavy frost. Soil and sun are two non-issues for this event. 

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very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet.  i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow.

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17 minutes ago, Rainforrest said:

Looks about right for my location. Hoping for more though. 

I have never seen GSP put out a map this bullish 3-4 days out. Heck, I'm not even sure the wave has been properly sampled yet. Rest assured this is a warning shot. These totals WILL go up for the mountains. 

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I can’t believe I woke up and the storm is still showing up - even more so that there is still quite a bit of consistency lol.  The thing that strikes me for ne ga and the upstate, st least, is the snow amounts with a CAD.  We may get a front end thump of snow but for the most part CADs here are not deep enough for snow but mostly ice. Even if we do get snow most big storms of this set up usually mix with or change to sleet then freezing rain. If the “second” shot moves through as snow on top of ice that would be a sight to see for sure

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1 minute ago, DopplerWx said:

very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet.  i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow.

I think 485 is going to be the dividing line, again. Maybe up to 73. 

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2 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet.  i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow.

But overall it's more of a monster winter storm look because of the colder surface temps. Major ice storm down through central SC.  

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It been is just hard for me to ignore the consistency and agreement with the various models. I know what has happened in the past, but we also don't usually have this much consistency and agreement with the models. They would all have to be wrong or start to do a complete 180 now.

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1 minute ago, BlueRidgeFolklore said:

I have never seen GSP put out a map this bullish 3-4 days out. Heck, I'm not even sure the wave has been properly sampled yet. Rest assured this is a warning shot. These totals WILL go up for the mountains. 

I have seen it a few times but not often.  Nice thing is they aren’t pressured in a news room environment so they can put out what models show (conservatively still).  Difference here is normally we don’t have so much model agreement so early.  The storms normally gone until the day before.  GSP is always on top of storms though and not afraid to show the possibilities.  Always big kudos to them. 

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5 minutes ago, DopplerWx said:

very concerning that the 6z nam has already switched from the initial snow from yesterday's run for clt to immediate rain and sleet.  i have seen this happen before and would not shock me to see the warm nose trend warmer as we get closer to saturday night. not good signs at all if you love snow.

how far north does the warm nose get?

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My thoughts this morning: To much focus on snow maps, not enough focus on who is going to be with out power for 2 weeks because of an inch of ice accrual.  

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Question been lurking for about 4 years or so, when they say North of 85 where does that start?  85 run North - South but around the Gastonia area it runs a little West - East.

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