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Everything posted by burrel2

  1. I mean it has upside... look at the 00z GFS for the upside max potential... that'd be historic for some folks. No reason to get too excited until the Euro jumps on board though. We saw this movie play out last week. (GFS showing snow and then complete cheap hooker fold). I'm a little more optimistic here though b/c the ukmet looks similar for now. And CMC has the trough axis pretty far west as well.
  2. hard to tell much of anything on those crummy panels. Also, no way i'm believing the qpf output on the gfs if it's right with the 500mb height map. There would be way more liquid.
  3. looks like a fairly potent trough on the 00z ukmet as well. Not GFS cutoff bomb material, but it's sharp.
  4. Looks like a stronger/more cutoff version of the 12z ukmet really. 5h track very similar
  5. I’m not going to complain bc I’ve got a decent hit from all the big ones in the that timeframe… but it’s almost always 2-3 inches of slop(except 5.5 inches with this last storm). But on the other hand 15-20 miles to my south has missed out almost entirely on all those storms.
  6. Yea, especially up your way. At least your area has really cashed in on all the big ones for the last 5-6 years .
  7. I think we’ve been spoiled with good December’s the last 5-6 years(not counting this year). Iirc, everyone averages more snow in March compared to December, historically.
  8. So December was an F. You aren’t rating February on the 7th day of the month right?
  9. Where's this pattern break down again that some ppl keep calling for?
  10. CMC also snowing over central NC at 240 hrs... the run was full of opportunities in the long range.
  11. Not a bad look for mid-February... pattern breakdown cancel?
  12. Why are you looking at average high temperatures to determine when the best chances for snow climatologically speaking? I'd think looking at historic snowfalls over the past 100 years. is more prudent. You know we have that data too, right? and Mid-Late February is "climatologically" the best time for our area to score a significant snowfall. Does that mean we will get a snowfall this year in our climo best time??? who knows, probably not b/c it's rare in general to get a significant snowfall any time during the winter for our area. But there's no reason to call winter over at the first of February b/c "climatology". Also how are you declaring the pattern starting in mid-february will not be ideal? 1. that's 10 days away and we don't really know how it will shake out. 2. The signals are mixed right now how the pattern will look in 10 days. It certainly doesn't look like a complete torch with a west coast trough and SER... Here's the latest GEFS mean for February 15th... not horrible.
  13. Pattern looks ok long range to me with persistent ridging out west… the lack of threats on the models/ensembles in the long range is a little concerning though. Would like to see some storms materialize here soon in the day 8-12 timeframe before the pattern breaks.
  14. you know it's a good sign for the long range when wncsnow hasn't had anything to post about in here.
  15. Clemson, SC sounding during the heaviest part of the storm... yes please!
  16. More/less the models are actually in very good agreement now on most of the 5h features/timing etc... it really just comes down to really small scale interactions and orientations of the vorticity lobes within the small shortwave as it pinches off.
  17. Yea.. objectively I don't know what way I think this will go. It's unsettling that the Euro/CMC/ICON basically have trended worse to basically nothing today. Ukmet still has a decent storm but both it and the gfs have trended less amped as well. Maybe we get a windshield wipe back the other way tonight... and settle on a decent event in between. fingers crossed!
  18. Snow starts ripping in the Upstate at 10pm Saturday night on the GFS... that's only 105hrs away. Please, please... just this once let the models converge on this solution!
  19. 18z GFS is pure x-rated porn for the upstate, banding feature just crushes the I-85 corridor... easily all snow on the soundings with some room to spare. Here's the kuchera totals...
  20. I hate the GFS for teasing the upstate like this. Ugh
  21. GFS mean is a little misleading there as lots of members(including the operational) have precip falling before 1am Sunday. That's not capture in the old run b/c the storm has been sped up a good 6 hours today. In fact, verbatim the storm is pretty much over in Western NC/SC at 1am Sunday on the operational.
  22. Just some observations since I took notes on all the model runs for the previous two major winter storms this year. With the big january 16th storm. the GFS was the most "wet" in my back yard for the 84-120 hour timeframe. It typically showed 1 to 1.6 inches of liquid with the event. I verified with 1.2 inches of liquid. The Ukmet was by far the worst in this timeframe as it had nothing to .05 inch totals for several runs. The Euro was also consistently too dry showing .4-.6 inch totals in this timeframe. With the big Triangle snow storm late month... The gfs consistently showed my back yard getting 0 to .05 inches of liquid; never more than that. Meanwhile the ukmet and Euro had me getting .25 to .65 of liquid for most of their runs in this time frame. I verified with just a trace of snow; let's call it .01 of liquid. So for both of those winter storms, the gfs was far and away the best model at predicting total liquid in my back yard in the 84-120hr timeframe... (this is very much fwiw and probably just doesn't mean anything) lol
  23. If they could meet in the middle that'd be great.
  24. eyore is a fictional character in the Winnie-the-Pooh books by A. A. Milne. He is generally characterized as a pessimistic, gloomy, depressed, anhedonic, old grey stuffed donkey sums up eyewalls general demeanor every winter, lol
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