Jump to content

burrel2

Members
  • Content count

    1,701
  • Joined

  • Last visited

Everything posted by burrel2

  1. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick. We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.
  2. burrel2

    CAD "ALWAYS" Overperforms

    Here is what the GFS showed at a 5 day lead. Does that look accurate to you?
  3. burrel2

    CAD "ALWAYS" Overperforms

    CAD typically over performs in regards to global model predictions in the mid-range. This event was no different if you go back and look at the prior 5 day lead runs. The hi-res shorter range models typically do a good job and sometimes over-estimate CAD. There are also certain situations with CAD that are more likely to bust in the short range than others. For example... you can have short-range busts when you have a really dry air-mass in place, or when the crux of an event depends on how long CAD hangs on before eroding. There are other instances where CAD events generally bust the other way. One example I see is that if I'm relying on a wedge front coming through and funneling Cold air to the upstate after an event has started, this is usually 2 to 4 hours behind what the models show.
  4. burrel2

    February 2019 Observations

    1.2 inches of liquid so far.... smh.
  5. burrel2

    February 2019 Observations

    Shakes my head..... We were forecasted to get a 1/10th inch of liquid at most today by most models. We're over 1/2 inch with heavy rain and lightening popping right now. Why can't moisture ever bust on the high side like this for a snowstorm!!! Could have been hours of thundersnow...
  6. burrel2

    February 2019 Observations

    34.3 at my house just north of Clemson. All the models had me at 38-42 this afternoon with surface temps bottoming out around 34 degrees at 2 or 3 am. Grant it, we've gotten heavier precip sooner than the models showed so evap cooling has been used up. I'm still curious to see if temps continue to fall some with the High pressure just now moving in to prime position.
  7. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I think there's room for this storm to produce significant ice for a large section of NC Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. CAD placement looks perfect on the globals. and the GFS has been trending colder at the surface with each run. FV3gfs has nearly the entire state of NC bottoming out around 32/33 Tuesday night/Wed am with a textbook high placement. It's unfortunate we don't have even an average strength cold/dry high pressure in front of this storm or it would be a doozy.
  8. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    1. Most of the global models were way too warm for the December event at 5 to 7 day lead times. 2. You didn't make it to 32/33 with the last wedge because it didn't precipitate when it was suppose to. Had it rained that morning you would have dropped that low or lower. And again, no models had that CAD event anywhere near 32/33 at 5 to 7 day lead times, except maybe the fv3gfs. 3. I'm not saying the CAD will trend stronger with this storm. I am saying that, as depicted on the specific model runs I posted, the surface temperatures they are showing would be too warm.
  9. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown. 12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.
  10. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yea, I actually went back through the last 7 or 8 FV GFS runs and pretty much every one of them has this storm with a nice look to it.
  11. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    10 day threat looks like a pretty solid pattern for scoring, imo. FV GFS has been fairly consistent with it over the last few days.
  12. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    https://www.amazon.com/Prodiamine-Generic-Barricade-5lbs-ali8056/dp/B004GTQBEK
  13. burrel2

    Post Arctic front snow Tuesday, Jan 29

    This has mega-bust written all over it for Alabama/Georgia. Can't believe how expansive the warnings/advisories are for this "event".
  14. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Nobody in the Southeast is ever a lock for frontal passage snow. lol
  15. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Jump on the bandwagon while you still can!
  16. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Great for Columbia, SC.
  17. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    So close to something huge...
  18. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I'm liking the 2/1-2/2 potential. Looks like plenty of cold air available if some of the energy dropping down can amplify a little bit, at this lead time we might see some mega-hits showing up on the models soon.
  19. burrel2

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    I've actually been rooting for this pattern to be a big bust since I'm going to be in Costa Rica from January 25th to February 2nd. Looks like I'm going get this trip off without missing any threats!
  20. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    3:00pm and it hasn't rained a drop here. According to all the models yesterday I should have gotten 1/10th of rain before daylight this morning, and continuing through the day. Strange...
  21. burrel2

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    PV split failed... in other news, water is wet.
  22. burrel2

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    GSP is being way too conservative with the freezing rain threat for tonight/wed morning. Not sure what models they are looking at. WWA should be extended down in the upstate. Roads along I85 are going to be a mess and they don't have that included in the advisory.
  23. burrel2

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    And yea... February 2014 sucked just as bad every other storm here.
  24. burrel2

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Nope, 3 inches of slop in 93, and a little under 3 inches in 96. Oddly enough the 2nd biggest snowfall I have ever measured was 4 inches on the nose and it was a dinky clipper system that hit at daybreak in the late 90's. I got maxima'd under a little band for a couple hours and picked up 4 inches while most other places in the upstate got an inch or two. I was living in Walhalla at the time for this storm, Clemson only got an inch or so. For that event, I can name you 20 events where we have gotten absolutely screwed. The two classic examples of places due South of here getting way more snow than I've ever seen would be February 2004, March 1, 2009, and Feb 2010. February 2004 probably stung the worst of them all. I got a freaking DUSTING from that storm...
×