burrel2

C+ here so far. 3 separate events with measurable winter precip. That's above normal for my back yard. Total accumulation of 2.75 inches snow/sleet spread across two systems and a light glaze of ice with the 3rd system. Not great, but right at my 25 year seasonal average.

The pre-event temp "bust", was just due to quicker cloud cover and/or discrepancies on when precip started and when wetbulbing would occur. What mattered was the low temperature during the event, and the Rgem had the GSP area bottoming at 31 and hold 31/32 from 5am until 10am or so, and that's exactly how it played out.

RGEM was never showing an inch of ice for the upstate, lol. Whatever source you guys were using for those RGEM maps was showing ice accrual based of a stock 1 to 1 ratio of rain to ice if the surface temp was < 32. Greenville did get over .75 inches of liquid with temps less than 32 degree's. Problem is the temp was 31.5 to 32 during that time with torrential downpours, so only a light glaze was realized. So in summary, the Rgem nailed this storm, but your ability to read it's modeled output failed. #RgemFTW, lol

Snow on the ground and very cold for the entire month in the upstate of SC, 3 separate big events each spaced about a week apart. My great grandmother told me they had to walk through snow to get to Easter service?!?

lol, I'm just joking of course. But it does look bleak for the next 2 weeks. But there's always March 1960!

See you guys next winter

850's are going to be -3 instead of 0... should be 20:1 ratio's with that.

"Cold air won't be a problem with this storm"

Sunday morning has my attention now. That's a pretty fresh dry/cold airmass that moves overhead on Saturday. GFS is most likely overdoing surface warm up Sunday morning. Also, mid-levels are by no means torching. Plenty cold enough for sleet in CAD area's and maybe snow in Northern NC.

Sure, I mean it's fun to speculate and all, but honestly when you look in to all that information for a greater than 2 week lead time, it is just that, speculating.

There is nothing before the 2nd week of February and no person or model can predict even the large scale weather pattern farther out than that.

Cold chasing moisture... no chance for anyone east of the apps, imo. Northwest Georgia could possibly get something.

It hasn't been that good for everyone in the Southeast... maybe that's why some are gnashing teeth more than others.

In other news, the grass is green and the sky is blue.

I'm not very impressed with the long range pattern. It looks like at best we will be a slightly cooler than normal pattern with the big Central Canada vortex cranking out storms that consistently cut to our west. Maybe the pattern will evolve in a favorable way after that, but we're now talking 15+day la la land time.

Did the euro just run earlier than normal? Hr 240 is already out on tropical tidbits.

Oh yea, that was the worst one of the bunch. Nary a flurry fell at my house in Walhalla. My high school teacher who lived in pickens county had an inch or so on her car that morning when she pulled in to work. Of course Greenville to Spartanburg got hammered.

ICON looks like the GFS, CMC trended that way.. ukmo has a somewhat similar look at 144hrs. There's at least something to monitor in this timeframe.

You are right that it's a multi-factor process as to why we always come out on the short end of the stick. 1. Last to get northwest flow Cold air at the surface,(this is the biggest single factor as any storm where we need cold air to arrive in time with precip, everyone around us will do better which is like 50% of winter storms). 2. NW and Westerly flow Down sloping 3. Lee-side trough development precipitation always barely misses us to the East. 4. Always too far West for Coastal bomb precipitation, (exception for 1993 storm where we we're too far East!, #1 factor also hurt us in this storm) The only way we can score big is with a well-established cold air wedge, but even in those setups Greenville/Spartanburg are a little colder than us!

I Grew up in Walhalla and have lived in Clemson the last 15 years. Even you guys have scored better storms than my back yard. It's really amazing. I would venture to guess if you had a map that highlighted area's that haven't received 6 inches of snowfall in the last 25 years. There would be a tiny dot over Southern Pickens and Oconee counties, and then like no other area highlighted anywhere in the southeast. Even lookout has had >6 inch snowfalls. Here are two examples of my biggest heartbreaks growing up. The second map is January 2nd, 2002. Also, the 2004 map is overdone for my backyard, I got exactly one inch from that one.

4 inches

This winter has already been very special for North West Georgia, All of NC... mountains/central/eastern/coast, and all of coastal South Carolina/GA. The only area really left out so far is the Western/Southern Upstate down to Columbia.

One day, the stars will align and i'll get a big storm, and it will be all that much sweeter after the life-time wait. That's what I've been telling myself the last 15 years or so anyways.

Need at least one other global model to show something similar before I give it a second thought.

If you call this a clipper than you have to call March 2009 a clipper too I guess, that one was juicy.