burrel2
-
Posts
2,388 -
Joined
-
Last visited
Content Type
Profiles
Blogs
Forums
American Weather
Media Demo
Store
Gallery
Everything posted by burrel2
-
New ICON out to 96hrs look much flatter out ahead of our storm compared to the 12z run. Could be a good trend if all the 00z models follow suit.
-
weatherbell; don't think I can post b/c it's a paid site.
-
Euro Ensemble members are also back to being absurdly bullish for the upstate. Over half of them paint >3 inches here, with a mean close to 6 inches. Incredible that both the GFS and Euro ensemble means are roughly 6 inches here this far out.
-
I will say, a 6 inch snowfall mean on the GEFS for my back yard, at a 6 day lead time is very unusual. Not that it means anything. I'll ride it and the new GFS right off the cliff I guess.
-
Ukmet looks like a dang close match to the new GFS to me. Maybe just a few hours slower, but with significantly better wedging out in front of the storm. Also maybe not quite as deep/strong as the new GFS. That being said, I'm guessing the ukmet is a major hit well down in to upstate SC and NE Ga. Especially with the better early wedging.
-
Looks like a northern jet wave crashes down just in front of our storm causing the stall/slide. Our storm wave is so broad it keeps the snowing going for quite some time in this scenario.
-
I'm not saying it won't come way north eventually, but the euro is supported by the ukmet and jma right now. The GFS and CMC are really the only models on the more amped side of guidance right now.
-
I'm not that excited at all about the snow prospects in the Upstate, or even in Central NC for that matter. Mid level cold air looks too marginal. I think large areas of sleet/freezing rain is a good bet for this storm. I'm not picky though.
-
Jackpot for SENC is around a foot between Lumberton and Wilmington. Less as you go north from that line. (Not sure on algothrims for the snow map, and how much of this is sleet/freezing rain)
-
I would say in the history of Euro ensemble runs... I've never seen a set that has looked that good in my life at 6/7 days out. It's beautiful!
-
Euro control run is a suppressed crush job from atanta to columbia to myrtle beach. I'm loving this supression trend. Lets keep this puppy south as long as we can!
-
I just saw the snowfall maps from the Euro.... I'm at a 10 out of 10 now on the excitement meter. Sure would be nice for the Upstate of SC to jackpot for once in the last 30 years.
-
We will also be just two weeks away from the winter solstice. So, solar radiation is about as good as you can hope for in a winter storm.
-
My excitement meter is up to about an 8 out of 10 at this point. Seems like even in the more amped/miller B scenario's CAD favored area's should at least be in for some ice.
-
Oh yea, that was the worst one of the bunch. Nary a flurry fell at my house in Walhalla. My high school teacher who lived in pickens county had an inch or so on her car that morning when she pulled in to work. Of course Greenville to Spartanburg got hammered.
-
You are right that it's a multi-factor process as to why we always come out on the short end of the stick. 1. Last to get northwest flow Cold air at the surface,(this is the biggest single factor as any storm where we need cold air to arrive in time with precip, everyone around us will do better which is like 50% of winter storms). 2. NW and Westerly flow Down sloping 3. Lee-side trough development precipitation always barely misses us to the East. 4. Always too far West for Coastal bomb precipitation, (exception for 1993 storm where we we're too far East!, #1 factor also hurt us in this storm) The only way we can score big is with a well-established cold air wedge, but even in those setups Greenville/Spartanburg are a little colder than us!
-
I Grew up in Walhalla and have lived in Clemson the last 15 years. Even you guys have scored better storms than my back yard. It's really amazing. I would venture to guess if you had a map that highlighted area's that haven't received 6 inches of snowfall in the last 25 years. There would be a tiny dot over Southern Pickens and Oconee counties, and then like no other area highlighted anywhere in the southeast. Even lookout has had >6 inch snowfalls. Here are two examples of my biggest heartbreaks growing up. The second map is January 2nd, 2002. Also, the 2004 map is overdone for my backyard, I got exactly one inch from that one.
-
4 inches
-
This winter has already been very special for North West Georgia, All of NC... mountains/central/eastern/coast, and all of coastal South Carolina/GA. The only area really left out so far is the Western/Southern Upstate down to Columbia.
-
One day, the stars will align and i'll get a big storm, and it will be all that much sweeter after the life-time wait. That's what I've been telling myself the last 15 years or so anyways.
-
If you call this a clipper than you have to call March 2009 a clipper too I guess, that one was juicy.
-
My streak of never having a 6 inch snowfall at my house is still in tact.... and i'm 32 years old. I've only witnessed one snow over 4 inches, and that was 5.75 inches in January 2011; of course greenville managed 8 inches or snow from that storm. Edit to add: I don't count Jan 1988 b/c I was 3 years old and don't remember it.
-
I was honestly expecting to waste .10 of liquid to raining/melting here, but I have .00 in the guage so far with a dusting on the ground and temp of 32.9 and dropping. It looks like we aren't going to waste any liquid! All the short range modells have .25 to .35 of liquidt falling here so I'm thinking 2 to 3 inches is a lock!
-
Only you could find something to complain about sitting directly in the bullseye of a storm 6 hours out. I might be slightly concerned in SE wake county or anywhere South and east of there, but you should be golden, imo
-
Lol, I dunno what people have been smoking tonight to make that 84hr NAM panel look so good... but I want some of it!!!
