burrel2

Setup for Saturday night looks pretty good to me. Especially for the mountains. Just need the trough to dig a little more. Temps above the surface look good. Boundary layer may be problematic but there is still room for that to trend better.

3.5 inches for the southern escarpment and not even an advisory from nws_gsp. Shameful.

2-3 inches on the ground already in the southern mountains and no advisories issued. Hmmm

I drove to the top of six mile mountain. 1600ft. About a half inch on the ground.

RRipping half dollars here now all snow .

No advisories out for the mountains from nws? Woof, missed this one.

This is such a tease. Why can’t we just score a big one? It’s ripping big flakes here mixed with slop.

A few flakes making to the ground here now. temp at 37/32. Looks like a little wedge has set up and outperformed modeled temps this morning. I'd be really excited right now if I lived above 2000ft on the NC/SC border.

Half melted slop hitting my windshield here now. Looks like it's about to really pick up in intensity on radar. Maybe it'll get heavy enough to get a decent burst of flakes down to the ground for an hour or so.

Southern mountains around the NC/SC border look like they're going to get hammered this morning.

180hr icon appears to be setting up for a phasing trough that produces a gulf monster with hp locked in over New England. Cold air is marginal though.

Places like Savannah and Charleston were pretty close to a major snow event Tuesday night. Plenty of cold air; storm gets cranking about 300 miles too far east though.

looks like a chance we could get some ice Friday morning. dew points are fairly low as precip breaks out. Warm nose is only 2/3C and caps out around 850mb. Something to watch.

Pattern has looked and continues to look horrible. Things have to change sometime, right?

Typically how it plays out in my backyard.

I've actually been rooting for this pattern to be a big bust since I'm going to be in Costa Rica from January 25th to February 2nd. Looks like I'm going get this trip off without missing any threats!

PV split failed... in other news, water is wet.

And yea... February 2014 sucked just as bad every other storm here.

Nope, 3 inches of slop in 93, and a little under 3 inches in 96. Oddly enough the 2nd biggest snowfall I have ever measured was 4 inches on the nose and it was a dinky clipper system that hit at daybreak in the late 90's. I got maxima'd under a little band for a couple hours and picked up 4 inches while most other places in the upstate got an inch or two. I was living in Walhalla at the time for this storm, Clemson only got an inch or so. For that event, I can name you 20 events where we have gotten absolutely screwed. The two classic examples of places due South of here getting way more snow than I've ever seen would be February 2004, March 1, 2009, and Feb 2010. February 2004 probably stung the worst of them all. I got a freaking DUSTING from that storm...

Except they got 8.6 inches in feb 2010. The only event in history where the northern extent of precip was not under modeled... screwing the upstate.

Your logic if flawed for Clemson, SC. You can pick any city out of a hat in Alabama/GA/SC/NC and they have had a bigger snow in the last 25 years than here. Since 1988 the biggest single snowfall event in Clemson, SC was 5.75 inches on 1/11/2011. Second biggest snowfall in that time period is less than 4 inches. So in Summary, I'm not just jealous of Asheville, NC. I'm jealous of Columbia, Augusta, Atlanta, Macon, Charleston, Myrtle Beach, Birmingham, Athens, Columbus, Charlotte, etc.etc.etc.

I can tell you the Fv3GFS absolutely nailed the thermal profile here for our storm and we wound up with 1.25 inches of sleet. If you had simply went by the TT kuchera snowmap for my location it was showing 6 inches of snow right up to the event start time. The map/algorithm just can't accurately describe ground truth and it was just wrong, but all of the measurable air data on the fv3 was accurate, and I got what I expected from the strom based off the fv3 data.

To talk further about this specific storm in charlotte. A lot of models were showing a possible "sleet" sounding, but in reality the low level cold pool may not have been deep enough to freeze the water droplets leading to plain rain. The skew-T could have been dead accurate by that models prediction, but the clown map/precip type map is not sophisticated enough to read a sounding and accurately describe would is falling from the sky with that sounding at every point location in the region. So precip type map may show all of charlotte in the sleet color zone, when in reality it's simply raining there, but the model did not bust on it's analysis,(other than the precip type maps).

Every model wasn't too cold for Charlotte if you don't base a model busting or verifying off the clown map predictions which honestly mean nothing in terms of what a model is actually showing. For instance, some clown maps don't account for warm air above 850mb... some of them don't account for surface temps being above freezing... As an example: If the GFS is showing a moderate snow sounding at noon with all layers below freezing except the surface temperature is 34 degree's for 3 hours. It's clown maps will show 3 inches of accumulations, but in reality there be 0 accumulation due to the 34 degree surface temperature and solar insolation. If that verified exactly as the model predicted, there would be 0 accumulation, but Mack would be on here a few hours later crying about how terrible GFS did with his snowstorm.

18z nam looks way better for the upstate. It’s now showing a burst of heavy snow from 8 to midnight before the warm nose flips us to sleet