burrel2

ICON has the storm.

Cold press/ New England vortex seems too strong on the modeling right now for much amplification of anything dropping in on the back side. The good thing is the vortex will undoubtedly trend weaker and less pressing as we got closer; which will hopefully allow room for something to develop behind it. It's definitely a good look at this range.

Has anyone in NC gotten 4 inches or more today? Including the mountains?

It's near impossible to predict how low level temps will play out with these systems. A few weeks ago it was raining here and 41 degree's with no wetbulbing left, and 2 hours later it was 34 degree's and ripping snow at 11am. Today we had extremely dry air work in in the 875-950mb range. 925mb wetbulbed down to -1C, seemingly leading a person to believe the low level above freezing layer could only be maybe 200 or 300 meters thick. Yet, today we wetbulbed down to 37-38 at the surface and then the temp never budged, while it snowed/rained moderately for hours on end. Part of it was definitely rates as I only wound up with 4/10th's of liquid for the storm, and all the shortrange models had me getting .6-.8inches of liquid. Either way, it's really disappointing because I was more worried about the 800mb warm nose for my area and that actually wound up being South of what models showed by a few miles and was not a problem for us today.

Really odd to see the CMC and EURO have the same storm with the same trajectory and snowfall 9 days out.

Parachutes mixing in here now, I can literally look up in the sky and see a massive blizzard beign swept in the wind a few hundred feet off the surface. Come on down already!!!!

Fluffy flakes starting to mix in with the white rain in Clemson. Temp is 38. Expecting a transition to heavy snow within the next 30 minutes.

Can't believe the surface boundary layer is this deep when we just had sleet and mesoanalysis showing 925mb temps below -1C.

Surface temps can be tricky with elevation in your area depending on the wind direction. If you are on a west facing slope you will get some downslope warming from the strong 925mb northeasterly flow. Conversely, if you're on an east face slope at the same elevation, you will be several degrees cooler with that flow.

CC radar snow line is finally collapsing with the heavier rates, Radar back West looks amazing temp rapidly dropping... Northern Upstate looking good.

A few wet snowflakes splattering the windshield in clemson

Surface temps won't be a problem at your location. you're still waiting on the 800mb freezing level to move to your South. Should happen within the next hour.

You're in a great spot! relax

Some positives for the upstate with this system: 1. We aren't relying on a wedge front to arrive for low level temps. Typically when we're waiting for a wedge front it's delayed. All the models have a brisk wedge front blowing through during the day on Wednesday. As such, the low level cold air feed is established well out ahead of this storm. Another positive, models often miss dew point depressions/dry air when the wedge is in place, as it will be on Thursday for the upstate. 2. We aren't relying on rapidly crashing 850mb-900mb temperatures from northwest flow as the storm arrives. The models have this air entrenched in our area and after wetbulbing gets most of the upstate to freezing or below on Thursday at these levels. Might this level be too warm for snow anyways? YES! But it won't be because the mountains have blocked it's advancement. Which is a battle we always lose. Some negatives: 1. Several models show a lee-side minima for precipitation. I think this is b/c they have northerly low-level flow on the west side of the mountains, causing some subsidence at that surface as air drops over the peaks. (Even though we have Northeasterly low level winds in the upstate, it appears there's a zone near the mountains that may be affected by downsloping. Especially in the NC foothills. 2. It appears the southerly push from waa around 750mb is so robust on the NAM that it sends a warm nose over the upstate flipping us over to sleet/rain. The upstate needs to hope the NAM is a little too aggressive in this regard,(which it probably is since it's on the extreme end of guidance, but you never know how hard that North trend is gonna hit!) 3. Some models are developing quite a coastal storm Thursday afternoon, if this consolidates quickly we could find ourselves in a precip minima between the initial frontogenesis forcing and the coastal low, (we've seen it happen before). Conversely, the icon swings a nice backside band from the coastal low through the upstate Thursday night, if that's true the coastal will have helped us. (very skeptical on our chances of this happening) Final Thoughts: I have little concern on whether the upstate gets appreciable precip. I am also not concerned about boundary layer issues given the Northeasterly low level winds forecasted well in advance of our storm. My biggest concern at this moment is mid-level temps if this thing really gets cranking like the 18z NAM showed. (I know it's early so don't take this as a prediction, these are just my gut feelings today).

NAM says there is some sleet with this system in my backyard. Where is this 800mb warmnose coming from? Valid 1pm Thursday.

FWIW, probably not much. But the 15z SREF mean trended a good bit further north and west with the higher qpf totals, comparing to 9z.

I know it's the 84hr NAM, but it looks like great for Upstate SC. 850's around -5c with surface dew points in the low 20's and heavy precip crossing the state line from Georgia.

Don’t think I buy that. Looks like it’s going to be slower to arrive on the nam which should help letting the cold air filter in. Hard to say for sure though. icon is in.... made a massive shift north with precipitation.

Well the nam looks interesting to say the least. Trough dropping through the west looks beautiful

It's early but the 00z icon is dropping our energy way farther west than it's previous run. Probably a good sign for tonight's 00z suite.

A decent tick north on the 18z GFS. Another shift or two like that and we're in business.

This is all a huge stretch. We're 120hrs out from the event starting. A small adjustment in modeling would lead to a widespread snow for lots of people on this board. Take a look at the snow from last week, when no global models were showing any snowfall just 72hrs out. I think that qualifies as a "comeback in the game" if you will. This storm has much better odds of turning out in our favor than that one did, 120 hrs out. It may not work out, but it's far from a "down 30 points at halftime" game.

Yea, the sad thing is we are still so far out. This thing could trend in to nothing on all the models, only to show back up 3 days from now! It is nice having something substantial to track though.

Depends on where your surface temp winds up. If it's below 32 then you'd be at 10:1 or better. Of course if it's 33 in the afternoon with a 2pm sun angle you will be lucky to get 8:1

As wet and over performing as all our rain events have been I highly doubt this system stays suppressed. As cold as the profile looks, if this thing can amp up a little more we could be looking at a foot plus type storm. Wouldn't take much adjustments to get inch+ liquid totals in to -5 850 air that's only getting colder as the system moves in.