burrel2

And that was literally the best fantasy model run I’ve ever seen. Got toe mighty! Whewww!!!! Lord have mercy

FYI, the 192hr jma panel looks incredible. Snow breaking kit in Ark/Texas/la region with a low forming in the deep gulf and plenty of room to amplify as it shifts East and a sprawling high pressure building in to prefect position. It’s honestly about the perfect map and you couldn’t draw it up much better.

The good things about the current 8-10 day threat, imo. based off the model evolutions... if anything we need to Canadian vortex to kick east quicker than what the euro shows. It hangs out over the Great Lakes for a while and makes it difficult for the energy ejecting in the southern stream to get out of the deep gulf. As a result of this look we have plenty of room to work with on temperatures... If it plays out like typical I expect the Canadian vortex to trend weaker and eject East faster, which should allow for more southern stream amplification. But with the orientation of the ridging if it does trend that way we should have a perfectly located mega high pressure in damming position with very cold dry air in place. To be clear, a quicker ejecting vortex would typically mean retreating cold air... but in this case it’ll mean a better high pressure placement while still having arctic sourced air, so it may be a good thing. (Also of note the vortex is ejecting in a south eastward trajectory thanks to the blocking which really is what makes this set up so good, if it just pushed northeast back towards the pole it would mean a more typical crummy set up). as such, the goal post are very wide right now for a winter storm in that timeframe. I worry more about suppression right now... and if the last weeks trends are any indication we will probably see things shift north and more relaxed, placing us right in the crosshairs of a major winter storm.

Sure, there’s been plenty of reason to be pessimistic this winter but right now is not the time, imo. We know things can and do change drastically in the long range but it couldn't look any better at day 8-10 than what it does right now. If we can hold the general evolution of the block retrograding west and connecting with with west coast ridging then we are sitting pretty. The retrograding block that moves from Davis straits over to the southwest Canada and connects with ridging is probably the single best prog you can hope for to generate a storm in the south east. It hasn’t happened like this since 2010/2011(excluding non winter months)

It’s literally showing snow along I-20 on day 10. That’s a threat, lol. Maybe not for your backyard but clearly there’s a major storm signal around then.

The para gfs day 7 map is just straight weenie porn setup

Don’t sleep on the Sunday morning threat. Thermals look good for snow on the gfs/nam for my backyard if the precip shield ticks north

Euro, cmc, gfs all have an incredible setup day 8-10. Weren’t we just saying this 3 days ago? I don’t mind being delayed if we aren’t denied!

Damn, those pics are incredible.

If we don’t score with the retrograding block and coldest air in the northern hemisphere trapped under it for a week or longer then I give up! You literally can not dream of a better situation than this.

Also it’s worth noting that the models are depicting a strong retrograding block with a true arctic airmass trapped under it. It’s the first time this year or in several years where we’ve had that happen.

At least the retrograding block is still shown on all modeling. It would take a real needle threading for us not to get a solid cold outbreak and/or winter storm threats. assuming the mega block evolves as depicted.

I’m not too optimistic for the first storm that brings the cold. Just not much cold air to work with out in front of it. The potential behind it is the best 8-10 day potential we’ve had in several years, imo.

The airmass incoming is extremely cold and extremely dry. Check out the dew points. If we get a system within a few days of the air mass settling in it will be frozen.

You really can’t ask for a better look than that on the long range euro. Very excite not to mention the gfs/cmc/euro all agree on a true arctic outbreak in the long range.

All of a sudden the long range looks ripe with possibility. Let’s go!!!

18z models coming in colder at the surface it looks like. This could be an over performer for ice.

Wasn’t there a freakishly odd nwfs event a while ago(10 years?) where robbinsville got like 60 inches?

Pna trumps all other indices for us and it couldn’t be in worse throughout the long range.

Pretty good support for a classic wedge event around day 9. Block over Greenland with split Lows under it creates a nice stationary high on the modeling. Just need a system to eject before it breaks down.

Looks like it may be snowing pretty good in Clatyon, GA this morning. Any reports?

All the cold looks focused over towards Seattle in the long range. Blocking does us no good if it’s cold there. Especially with a big stationary ridge in the gulf.

It’s definitely depressing right now with the modeling showing no credible threats even with persistent blocking. Feel like we missed a great opportunity on Monday

144hr ukmet is a thing of beauty. Snow breaking out in north Georgia.

Ukmet is developing a storm in the gulf at hr144... game on. I think this one trends from a suppressed nothingburger to our big storm.