burrel2

00z icon had a doozy of a snowstorm on Monday. Gfs is close...

Overnight model runs were ugly

Euro is all by itself with the no storm idea 8 days from now. Gfs/gfs para/ Canadian/icon are all very similar with a significant storm.

March is better than December, so no.

Gfs looks as good as it gets in the longe range

It looks like an area between Nashville and Chattanooga is getting buried right now. They had no warnings up a few hours ago... wwa now.

Yea, but they avoid going there when it’s going to snow ever since they got snowed in a few December’s back. Contemplating coming up tonight but I’m gonna ride out tonight here and head that way in the morning with my kid if needed to find snow.

I think the boundary layer inhibiting accumulations like shown on the HRRR may be overblown, because we have ENE winds at 925-950mb and a decent cold push of air at these levels. We aren't dealing with a boundary layer above freezing from 925mb down. This one is very thin, and should be easily dropped to 32-33 with heavy rates, I think.

I honestly have no clue what it's going to do tonight in the upstate. I would lean towards mostly all rain or wet snow that can't stick... but I wouldn't be surprised if Walhalla to Pickens to Greenville got 4-6 inches. The column is very marginal from 825-875mb...The surface is very marginal... but if they get heavy rates for a few hours that could lead to 4 inches of concrete, and the way the radar is setting up right now looks like a death band is developing in N. GA and heading right for the upstate. The only thing I'm sure of is the the Southern Mountains are going to get obliterated. Clayton, GA to Highlands to Cashiers to Brevard will get 6-12 inches.

I think you’ll be fine and in a great spot. Wouldn’t be surprised if your area jackpots outside of the mountain locations

Judging by radar the mountains in SC are going to get blasted in the next few hours. Plenty cold through the column even down in to the upstate. The warm nose doesn't show up until around 11pm tonight. Could get to see some silver dollars rip this evening in the upstate even if it's too warm to stick at the surface, imo.

Mountain folk won't like the latest Hrrr. Mega dry slot for the front end of the storm.

No reason to be down! We're gonna see flakes flying tomorrow; that's a win. Especially considering we're only a week in to January.

240hr depiction on today's GFS run is a thing of beauty. Ridging out west, west-based greenland block.. stationary arctic blocking... Second half of January looks good.

Don't pin your hopes on the SREF mean. It's fun to look at but it's trash. If it's correct it's by random luck.

The variance in modeling is amazing this close to the event. Virtually every location has models showing jack pots and whiffs. The only real lock seems like the Southern mountains and eastern escarpment, but the RGEM looks pretty rough for those areas.

Arw pummels the upstate and mountains bits it’s literally 6 hours quicker with the backside precip???? All done here by 7am?

What’s the deal with this 850mb jet? Feel like there should be some precip enhancement with it especially near the escarpment,but it doesn’t show on radar.

Best run for the upstate yet... backside band crushes us mid-morning. That backside stuff can be fickle. Been burned many times before on that action. Just have to hope it works out.

Nam says congrats north Georgia... where’s lookout???

Hrrr is just beautiful for the upstate. Backside pivots over us all morning.

Great run for the northern upstate too

just when I thought I was out, the hi res nam sucks me back in! Feel confident on at least seeing some moderate snow here Friday morning.

center of the 5h low is nearly to the gulf coast at 33hrs on the NAM! Geez

Please let this sounding be accurate for mby!!!