burrel2

I think the ukmet would still deliver an ice storm Tuesday. I’m more worried about the cmc and gfs being so suppressive that they don’t develop any gulf involvement and show precip blossoming slightly to my East from the coastal low on Tuesday

GEFS is super moist for Tuesday’s system. .5qpf mean over the upstate. cad High in perfect position.

Euro would be predominantly sleet for the upstate and most of North Carolina. Check out the frigid 925mb temps.

Check out the 7 day euro ensemble mean! Textbook wedge setup.

Wedge induced Freezing rain all way in to Florida on the icon, never seen that before

Raging ice storm on the icon... similar to the euro but not as amped and... colder???

How’d the 18z euro look at 144hrs in regards to next weeks storm?

18z icon at 120hrs is further south and east with the cold push/vortex compared to the 12z run.

Early access to the rgem found here. https://collaboration.cmc.ec.gc.ca/cmc/cmdn/pcpn_type/pcpn_type_gem_reg.html

Euro matches up fairly well with the ukmet at 144hr. Only difference being the ukmet is colder and more suppressive with the arctic blast. Both models have a potent system in California. all that matters at this point is that we get the cold press... the the euro/ukmet agree on that. Let’s hope they’re right.

Euro doesn’t warm up here... still 31 as the precip moves out... most of the 1+ inches of liquid fell with temps around 25. Would be almost entirely sleet Judging by the depth of the cold layer and 925 temps.

The 144 hr panel of the ukmet was the best thing to come from the 12z runs. If we can get the arctic air to dump down we will score. Fingers crossed that the euro looks similar.

Ukmet dumps the cold on us at 144hr with a storm out west. Great look.

Cmc ensemble mean is nothing like the OP, ejects East and dumps arctic air.

I’m always an optimist

Assuming the cold/confluence ejects East like the euro/gfs show we will have a long duration time frame with arctic sourced cold air, a damming high, and where it will be very difficult for a system to cut. then it’s just a matter of getting a pacific system to eject within that 2-3 day window. it’s a very wide goal post set up, about as good as you can get. Doesn’t mean it’ll pan out but you have to like the look( assuming the arctic airmass doesn’t dump out west like the Canadian shows).

Even though the euro didn’t pan out at day 8/9... it’s still a great look. It advances the Canadian vortex, brings the cold and locked in wedging... only problem is the next system crashing in to the Pacific is super strong and slow moving and doesn’t quite here in time. It’s on island with that strong of a pacific system plowing in to the incredible confluence over the continent and I doubt it plays out that way. All I care about is that it delivered the cold and confluence this run. I bet the ensemble mean will be nice, Game on

Wut? This pattern is the best you can hope for to avoid cutters and rain.

This is how you overcome a warm boundary layer... get a death band centered right over your house! .5 to one inch totals in that band. Hrrr nailed it.

Lol, yea it was funny watching them backtrack. I by no means knew we were gonna get dumped on for sure... but the possibility was clearly there, and it’s something tv Mets and the nws should have recognized and communicated, imo.

Cmc looks like a dumpster fire. Still no consensus on the Canadian vortex. Ugh

Is that better hp placement?

Wait for the next one the 12z gfs then, lol.

Get out your popcorn... it’s gonna be a biggun on the gfs, and only 7 days out!

The 180hr icon is promising.