burrel2

It’s funny how so many people focus on micro analyzing the gfs when we know it’s the worst with predicting pressure gradients and low pressure tracks around a wedge. I can guarantee you its on an island with its low pressure track/evolution because its wrong. Analyzing thermals from it is a waste of time as a result. 12z ukmet crude panels looks great again and line up with other guidance. Yay!

06z rgem isn’t bad either…

It’s been a long time since nws gsp has issued a winter storm watch for the entire forecast area. I expect that will happen tomorrow

CMC clown map is loving the upstate tonight!. foot plus totals!!! Gonna stay up for the Ukmet clown map and then try and get some rest.

https://www.meteociel.fr/modeles/ukmo2.php?carte=1021&ech=72&nh=1&archive=0

ukmet looks like it didn't change much at all from 12z based on the crude maps. CMC looks the same as well, maybe a slight bit more suppressed and sped up a few hour?(going off black and white maps)

Yea. Around 2 inches Imby from that one. But plenty of 3 inch totals all around me.

Call me crazy but I think the 18z gfs makes a huge shift south.

Yea, Atlanta area to Athens, Georgia would need things to slow down a bit to allow time for the wedge to build in( if you want crippling ice totals). classic wedge fronts coming in are almost always 2-3hrs later than models show as well in my experience. id be surprised if the Atlanta area has significant ice accretions, but they could definitely have major traffic problems Sunday evening from a thin layer of freezing rain.

Euro shows front end snow for lookouts area with the initial waa push. Doesn’t seem that far fetched and it played out very similar with the Feb 2014 event. Front end waa thumps before changeover have historically/typically over performed imby more often than not. Still too early to know the battle lines now though.

Honestly, cmc is great for the western upstate. Front end 4-8 inch thump followed by sleet with temps around 25.

Yea, all the central and eastern NC guys are upset over the late amping, but back our way that doesn’t matter so much if the low can start off far enough south. Ukmet is a dream run for us (except qpf is kinda modest). even though it winds up turning up to hard for places to our east.

You had more in February 2014.

Looking at the crude ukie map. Low pressure looks like it’s in the same spot as 00z at 96hrs. Maybe even a tick south/west. Surface low centered in southern Alabama close to the Florida border. Should be a great run.

Also… comparing the 90hr 6z euro and gfs… the gfs has the surface low near the Tennessee border and deeper. Definitely a much, much better look on the euro.

Other good things to consider… ukmet is showing the ideal scenario and has as good or better 5 day verification Scores compared to gfs. Euro is still a solid hit for western areas and lines up perfectly with gefs/eps. 06z Icon trended in a good direction with our storm. And like ilmross poitned out… gfs has corrected to flatter/weaker/East with the wave diving across our area tomorrow. lastly, even in the most amped runs of the gfs… most of the forum gets a winter storm warning criteria ice/sleet storm. (Beggars can’t be choosers).

I’m trying to remain happy here… all models showing 1-2 inch liquid for the upstate and worst case it will be a raging sleet storm with temps in the mid 20s. It’s been a long time since we've experienced that. I still think there’s a 50/50 chance we get significant snow accumulations on the front end as well. Can’t complain about that at this point!

Compared to now

Check out how much the gfs over amped the late week system 126hrs out…

5 day 8 inch snowfall eps mean for elberton,ga through greenwood, sc. cmon now… this can’t be real.

5 days out and Gfs,cmc, euro all drop 10-12 inches over the upstate with temps in the low to mid 20’s throughout the event. What could go wrong? I’m nervous!

Imo, even if this storm trends more amped it looks like CAD regions are a near lock for frozen precip. Would just mean more sleet and freezing rain and less snow. I guess my point is the goal posts are pretty wide for a significant winter storm right now with respect to model shifts(for CAD regions)

Y’all….. the 6z eps snowfall mean is 4 inches in my backyard. I don’t think I’ve ever seen an eps mean that high here, at any lead time before an event, period.Huge, huge signal!

Well we got the tick south and west with the wave on this run. Check please!!!

If this wave had dug a little more south and west we would be a looking at truly historic storm on the 18z GFS from Atlanta up through Raleigh. Temps aren't an issue for most and just a little more digging would really get the gulf involved. I won't be greedy though, i'll take it verbatim.