burrel2
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Everything posted by burrel2
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It looks like douglassville, Georgia Will wetbulb down to 34-35 at minimum... we might might have something here.
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Stations south of Atlanta have dropped from 50-52 to 38 degrees and they’ve only received .01 or .02 of liquid so far and haven’t reached saturation yet... bodes well for us I think.
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You really need a dry airmass in place for models to be underdone, I think. The events this year haven’t had that.
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I’m liking that 192hr range. Let’s get it inside day 7 this time!
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Pretty conservative for nws gsp to not even have a wwa out for my backyard.
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I’m gonna be pretty depressed tonight when I’ve got the hrrr dropping 9 inches of kuchera ratio snow at my house 4 hours before the event and I get mud puddles.
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Jma has a snowstorm at hr 192
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Day 8 euro is setting up nicely...
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It just seems odd to me that you could get a polar vortex to kick southwest towards the west coast when you have a retrograding block... the vortex should move the opposite direction... as the bock swings west the vortex should push East. have to hope the models are overdoing the southeast ridge effect as that seems to be biggest hinderance to it moving East.
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Precip starts here in 5 hours. I need to hold off anymore north shifts between then and now, lol.
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16z hrrr. I-85 dividing line looks legit.
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If the banding and qpf on most models are accurate, I think they’ll be in the 6-10 range. It’s definitely gonna be the jackpot area.
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No doubt it’s going to take heavy rates for anyone outside of the mountains to cash in. The good thing is it seems there will be a strip of .75 to 1 inch liquid that falls over a 3 hour period. People under that will get accumulating snow.
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If you’re above 1600 feet in northeast Georgia or SC you are a lock for 3+ inches at this point. That’s all the elevation you need to make the boundary layer no issue.
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Just once, can the hrrr be right with banding placement??? Please!
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Gonna come down to nowcasting and Radar watching for the upstate. If we can get a heavy/consistent band to come through from 6-10pm we will get accumulations. If we don’t then it’ll just be white rain for us. Southern mountains look to get mauled either way.
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The nam is the only model that doesn’t develop banding over the upstate... gfs, icon, cmc, rap, hrrr, euro all have banding over us. You tell me?
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Check please!!!
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03z rap holds firm and smokes the upstate.
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Icon and rgem hold steady.
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I’m not too worried about the warm nose. I care more about the intensity of the front end precip out ahead of the warm nose and the NAM isn’t very impressive in that regard. If we get heavy front end precip we can get accumulations east of the mountains... if we don’t, then we won’t.
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750mb warm nose gets you for the second half. If the nam is to be believed all the cashing in has to be done on the front end, mountains included.
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Nam looks better to me through 17hrs. Shortwave over Oklahoma isn’t as amped. really shows on sim radar out there.
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It’s not coming in during the day. Heavy rates look to be here by 5:30-6:00pm at the earliest. Solar radiation is pretty much gone by then. Models show clearing skies later tonight. Just have to hope clouds roll in tomorrow morning at the perfect time.
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Hrrr drops 1/2 inch liquid on Anderson county, sc from 8pm to 9pm with a snow sounding. I believe rates like that would overcome a shallow boundary layer.
