It's near impossible to predict how low level temps will play out with these systems.
A few weeks ago it was raining here and 41 degree's with no wetbulbing left, and 2 hours later it was 34 degree's and ripping snow at 11am.
Today we had extremely dry air work in in the 875-950mb range. 925mb wetbulbed down to -1C, seemingly leading a person to believe the low level above freezing layer could only be maybe 200 or 300 meters thick. Yet, today we wetbulbed down to 37-38 at the surface and then the temp never budged, while it snowed/rained moderately for hours on end.
Part of it was definitely rates as I only wound up with 4/10th's of liquid for the storm, and all the shortrange models had me getting .6-.8inches of liquid.
Either way, it's really disappointing because I was more worried about the 800mb warm nose for my area and that actually wound up being South of what models showed by a few miles and was not a problem for us today.