burrel2

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  1. Euro and GFS don't look that far apart to me. They're both really far south with a bombing upper level low. If we can keep that feature but trend it more to the north and deeper it could get interesting. IMO, the likelihood of it occluding that far south is doubtful. More likely it either follows an evolution like the CMC, or closes off further north bringing NC/VA in to the game for heavy snow.
  2. gfs did horrible with scouring today's wedge. Here is it's 72hr forecast versus reality.
  3. 84hr NAM appears to be setting up a crippling ice storm.
  4. Way to early to throw in the towel on next week. Models are trending quicker with the 2nd wave for a potential Friday event. Icon looks like a lot of ice for nc on the 12z run that just spit out.
  5. Typically how it plays out in my backyard.
  6. Looks like it should be ripping silver dollars just west of Rock Hill. Any ground reports?
  7. Biggest issue there might be time of day. Hard to get snow to the ground at this lattitude in early April at 1pm. Also, the cold air aloft has had more time to modify by then as well. The best timing for snow appears to be set up in upstate SC. Definitely worth watching for Charlotte and points north and east though.
  8. I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect. Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show. As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.
  9. It's happening! We'll get some sprinkles while Mack picks up 3 or 4 inches tomorrow morning. Take it to the bank!
  10. We’re in hi res model time now. Less than 48hrs out. Toss the euro!
  11. Looks like it's going to Snow in Upstate SC on Tuesday morning. Where's everyone at?
  12. Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick. We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.
  13. Here is what the GFS showed at a 5 day lead. Does that look accurate to you?
  14. CAD typically over performs in regards to global model predictions in the mid-range. This event was no different if you go back and look at the prior 5 day lead runs. The hi-res shorter range models typically do a good job and sometimes over-estimate CAD. There are also certain situations with CAD that are more likely to bust in the short range than others. For example... you can have short-range busts when you have a really dry air-mass in place, or when the crux of an event depends on how long CAD hangs on before eroding. There are other instances where CAD events generally bust the other way. One example I see is that if I'm relying on a wedge front coming through and funneling Cold air to the upstate after an event has started, this is usually 2 to 4 hours behind what the models show.
  15. 1.2 inches of liquid so far.... smh.