burrel2

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  1. Cold press/ New England vortex seems too strong on the modeling right now for much amplification of anything dropping in on the back side. The good thing is the vortex will undoubtedly trend weaker and less pressing as we got closer; which will hopefully allow room for something to develop behind it. It's definitely a good look at this range.
  2. Has anyone in NC gotten 4 inches or more today? Including the mountains?
  3. It's near impossible to predict how low level temps will play out with these systems. A few weeks ago it was raining here and 41 degree's with no wetbulbing left, and 2 hours later it was 34 degree's and ripping snow at 11am. Today we had extremely dry air work in in the 875-950mb range. 925mb wetbulbed down to -1C, seemingly leading a person to believe the low level above freezing layer could only be maybe 200 or 300 meters thick. Yet, today we wetbulbed down to 37-38 at the surface and then the temp never budged, while it snowed/rained moderately for hours on end. Part of it was definitely rates as I only wound up with 4/10th's of liquid for the storm, and all the shortrange models had me getting .6-.8inches of liquid. Either way, it's really disappointing because I was more worried about the 800mb warm nose for my area and that actually wound up being South of what models showed by a few miles and was not a problem for us today.
  4. Really odd to see the CMC and EURO have the same storm with the same trajectory and snowfall 9 days out.
  5. Parachutes mixing in here now, I can literally look up in the sky and see a massive blizzard beign swept in the wind a few hundred feet off the surface. Come on down already!!!!
  6. Fluffy flakes starting to mix in with the white rain in Clemson. Temp is 38. Expecting a transition to heavy snow within the next 30 minutes.
  7. Can't believe the surface boundary layer is this deep when we just had sleet and mesoanalysis showing 925mb temps below -1C.
  8. It's dependent on rates. If we get 2 inch per hour rates it'll crash temps. Same for your location.
  9. Surface temps can be tricky with elevation in your area depending on the wind direction. If you are on a west facing slope you will get some downslope warming from the strong 925mb northeasterly flow. Conversely, if you're on an east face slope at the same elevation, you will be several degrees cooler with that flow.
  10. imo, the northern upstate may wind up doing as well as many in Eastern NC with this storm. Looks like we can pick up 1/2 to 3/4 of liquid over the next 4 hours and should be changing to snow with surface temps crashing in the next hour.
  11. CC radar snow line is finally collapsing with the heavier rates, Radar back West looks amazing temp rapidly dropping... Northern Upstate looking good.
  12. A few wet snowflakes splattering the windshield in clemson
  13. Surface temps won't be a problem at your location. you're still waiting on the 800mb freezing level to move to your South. Should happen within the next hour.