Why are you looking at average high temperatures to determine when the best chances for snow climatologically speaking? I'd think looking at historic snowfalls over the past 100 years. is more prudent. You know we have that data too, right? and Mid-Late February is "climatologically" the best time for our area to score a significant snowfall.
Does that mean we will get a snowfall this year in our climo best time??? who knows, probably not b/c it's rare in general to get a significant snowfall any time during the winter for our area. But there's no reason to call winter over at the first of February b/c "climatology".
Also how are you declaring the pattern starting in mid-february will not be ideal? 1. that's 10 days away and we don't really know how it will shake out. 2. The signals are mixed right now how the pattern will look in 10 days. It certainly doesn't look like a complete torch with a west coast trough and SER... Here's the latest GEFS mean for February 15th... not horrible.