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burrel2

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  1. yea 18z euro misses. Ugh. lol (didn't really shift much from 12z, just hoping for tick towards the 18z short range models)
  2. sorta feel like this 18z euro is going to be a huge deciding factor for the upstate. It really needs to look the 18z Rgem/NAM just looked.
  3. Couple thoughts on the potential phasing: It seems like the 18z models diverge on whether or not the baja low gets left behind around hr 60-66. Are we to believe the NAM/RGEM at hour 60 or the GFS/ICON? For the 00z runs tonight, we will be at hour 54 of the divergence... have to think that close to it happening, we will get some resolution. FWIW, the 12z Ukmet was actually similar looking to the 18z NAM at 5h with the phasing, just not as strong, and I think the ukmet has a dry bias as well on the n/w side of a precip shield.
  4. This is the last panel. 1am Saturday. 6-7 inches of powder has already fallen in the upstate on this run. Edit: got too excited and posted NAM... corrected to rgem now.
  5. Got toe mighty. Need a cig after that Rgem run... WOOOO!!!!
  6. Man I really hope they run is due to some newly ingested data and the other models follow along
  7. NAM just said hold my beer, Time to feed the weenies! It’s almost like instead of the northern wave absorbing the southern wave… the southern wave had sucked in the northern wave leading to a beautiful gulf low slider.
  8. I could see the day 7/8 thing working out. Euro looks perfect with the progression of the Baja low across the southeast… just doesn’t have any northern energy dropping down to help amplify it. Cmc has the same feature but phases it with the northern stream and boom! Gfs doesn’t have the Baja low but does have a northern stream disturbance dropping down.
  9. Basically threats all over the place starting day 7 on all the different globals. Best looking “closest”threat is day 8 on the cmc, it buries the southeast. euro looks gorgeous on day 7 too… just a little suppressed. Euro looks great again on day 9 but also a tad suppressed. Perfect!
  10. Probably worthless but the 12zjma is still phasing and throwing precip way back west
  11. Canadian with a burger boom!!! Next week
  12. Imo, it's pretty much game over for the upstate if the baja low doesn't get mostly sucked up in to the trough. The 06z Euro still did this but it was starting to leave a tail of energy behind compared to previous runs. The 12z Nam and 12z Icon sucks it up in a similar fashion, the mostly catch it but leave a bit of a trail behind. The 12z Rgem leaves a little bit more of it behind.. longer tail, less precip. 12z GFS leaves it completely behind (so much so that it's showing a very weak secondary wave of precip from it.
  13. looking at those ensemble members... seems like there is a lot of phased monsters. Looks like around 20 phased monsters, 15 (in the middle), and 15 weak/flat suppressed?
  14. Not really caving... GFS already moved way more in the direction of the Euro. If the euro pulls back 20% and the GFS pushed forward 80% to meet in the middle. That's a win for the Euro.
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