burrel2

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  1. Looks like it should be ripping silver dollars just west of Rock Hill. Any ground reports?
  2. Biggest issue there might be time of day. Hard to get snow to the ground at this lattitude in early April at 1pm. Also, the cold air aloft has had more time to modify by then as well. The best timing for snow appears to be set up in upstate SC. Definitely worth watching for Charlotte and points north and east though.
  3. I've got a feeling this storm is going to surprise someone. Setup is absolutely perfect. Thermals look great for upstate SC. Just need the blossoming precip shield to be a tick farther north than some models show. As it stands now, it looks like Mack's house over towards Charlotte could jackpot with 3 or 4 hours of moderate to heavy snow tomorrow morning. I wouldn't be surprised if a band in this area picks up a quick 3 or 4 inches, imo.
  4. It's happening! We'll get some sprinkles while Mack picks up 3 or 4 inches tomorrow morning. Take it to the bank!
  5. We’re in hi res model time now. Less than 48hrs out. Toss the euro!
  6. Looks like it's going to Snow in Upstate SC on Tuesday morning. Where's everyone at?
  7. Yea, that good pattern went to garbage awfully quick. We needed more energy left behind for the 2nd wave and all of the models trended towards the first wave today.
  8. Here is what the GFS showed at a 5 day lead. Does that look accurate to you?
  9. CAD typically over performs in regards to global model predictions in the mid-range. This event was no different if you go back and look at the prior 5 day lead runs. The hi-res shorter range models typically do a good job and sometimes over-estimate CAD. There are also certain situations with CAD that are more likely to bust in the short range than others. For example... you can have short-range busts when you have a really dry air-mass in place, or when the crux of an event depends on how long CAD hangs on before eroding. There are other instances where CAD events generally bust the other way. One example I see is that if I'm relying on a wedge front coming through and funneling Cold air to the upstate after an event has started, this is usually 2 to 4 hours behind what the models show.
  10. 1.2 inches of liquid so far.... smh.
  11. Shakes my head..... We were forecasted to get a 1/10th inch of liquid at most today by most models. We're over 1/2 inch with heavy rain and lightening popping right now. Why can't moisture ever bust on the high side like this for a snowstorm!!! Could have been hours of thundersnow...
  12. 34.3 at my house just north of Clemson. All the models had me at 38-42 this afternoon with surface temps bottoming out around 34 degrees at 2 or 3 am. Grant it, we've gotten heavier precip sooner than the models showed so evap cooling has been used up. I'm still curious to see if temps continue to fall some with the High pressure just now moving in to prime position.
  13. I think there's room for this storm to produce significant ice for a large section of NC Tuesday night/Wednesday morning. CAD placement looks perfect on the globals. and the GFS has been trending colder at the surface with each run. FV3gfs has nearly the entire state of NC bottoming out around 32/33 Tuesday night/Wed am with a textbook high placement. It's unfortunate we don't have even an average strength cold/dry high pressure in front of this storm or it would be a doozy.
  14. 1. Most of the global models were way too warm for the December event at 5 to 7 day lead times. 2. You didn't make it to 32/33 with the last wedge because it didn't precipitate when it was suppose to. Had it rained that morning you would have dropped that low or lower. And again, no models had that CAD event anywhere near 32/33 at 5 to 7 day lead times, except maybe the fv3gfs. 3. I'm not saying the CAD will trend stronger with this storm. I am saying that, as depicted on the specific model runs I posted, the surface temperatures they are showing would be too warm.
  15. IMO, models are starting to cluster to a Classic damming event for next Tuesday. Euro/GFS would be way off with their surface temp depictions if they verified as shown. 12z Euro and 18z GFS look like carbon copies of each other for Tuesday morning. CAD high is in perfect position. the air mass in place isn't that cold, but the source region of the high pressure is fairly cold/dry. Edit to add: haven't checked for ensemble support... hope there is some.