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burrel2

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  1. burrel2
    Actually I lied, it was feb 17, 2015... lol. Time flies I guess.
  2. burrel2
    The last Over performing cad for my backyard was 2018 when all the hi res models had me dropping to A min of 32/33 the night before the the event and had no chance of sleet in the soundings. I wound up hitting 28.3 for a low the next day and got 90% sleet with a little freezing rain at the end and temps never made it above 31 during precipitation. 1 inch of liquid total. That one was a very dry air mass.
  3. burrel2
    This wasn’t a storm that typically bust in our favor for cad. Those are storms with an eroding wedge(models erode too fast) or an anonymously dry air mass. waiting on cad to kick in is usually delayed compared to what models show, and often doesn’t work out. Especially without cold dry air already in place across the region.
  4. burrel2
    Here’s the icon from yesterday morning. Shows the dry slot well.
  5. burrel2
    All the global models depicted this dry slot fairly well...
  6. burrel2
    The freezing rain in Louisiana makes our wedge look like child’s play. They’re getting over an inch of liquid with temps in the low to mid 20s
  7. burrel2
    Texarkana got 8-10 inches with the last storm and are going to get another 6-8 inches tonight... all with temps in the teens and 20s. Why????
  8. burrel2
    It does look like there will be two bands of higher totals and a minima area in between. Most models have the first band west of the mountains and the 2nd band east of the foothills. not sure how much that will matter though Bc it probably just means most of the 1/2 inch of liquid freezes instead of getting 2 inches of liquid where lots of it runs off in the downpours.
  9. burrel2
    Nam is warming Athens, Georgia from 31/19 Wednesday morning to 49/33 under north East winds. I find it odd that the wetbulb Would rise that much with a northeasterly feed. I could see things verifying dryer/colder Wednesday for wedge areas. Something to watch
  10. burrel2
    Actually for northern NC it’s close to a snow sounding through 7am. Hope it’s right with the Lack of a warm nose push for you guys.
  11. burrel2
    Hrr soundings support freezing rain, not sleet. The clown map is bogus.
  12. burrel2
    Yea that’s freezing rain fo sho.
  13. burrel2
    The retrograding block paid out in the end, just so happened to be every southern state but ga, fl, sc, nc. That nws advisory map makes me want to cry.
  14. burrel2
    I’m about ready to throw in the towel. Looks like no chances through at least feb 25th.
  15. burrel2
    Models in agreement that Dallas, Tx will get heavy snow Monday morning with a surface temp around 10 degrees. Face palm
  16. burrel2
    The southern wave really trended good for us to get a winter storm but that sorry p.o.s Canadian vortex that never made it in to the US is now progged to leave a little lobe behind which wrecks high pressure development out ahead of the southern wave. We can’t catch a break. I won’t complain too much though. Got one decent snow this winter at least. still a little salty that places south of Dallas, Texas are getting like 4 different winter storms over the next ten days and they got one earlier this winter too.
  17. burrel2
    It’s is pretty locked in that eastern Texas, Louisiana, Arkansas are going to get an major winter storm. Must be nice.
  18. burrel2
    Improved from 00z but still on amped/warm side of 12z guidance. Clear as mud. if I had to guess right now I’d bet on an average outcome where we get a miller b and ice for the traditional cad regions. Have the edge of ice from say Athens,ga to greenwood, sc , to Charlotte, and just west of Raleigh. Who knows though.
  19. burrel2
    Feel like this is a huge euro run coming up. If it trends towards the ukmet/icon then I’ll be feeling pretty confident in a major winter storm. If it spits out a run similar to 00z or the 12zgfs then it’s still anyone’s guess with a slight lean towards rainstorm for Tuesday, imo.
  20. burrel2
    The ukmet is a major hit.
  21. burrel2
    0 degrees in lake Charles??? Lmao
  22. burrel2
    12z ukmet matches up with the icon at 5h. Gfs para is a little faster with the southern wave but still a major winter storm. 12z gfs is more amped than other models with the southern wave and too warm for most, it appears to be on an island with that with the 12z runs.
  23. burrel2
    I personally don’t mind negative/pessimistic people being on the board. Probably a good thing to be honest. But if you’re gonna be negative have a little thicker skin than that. My comment was in jest.
  24. burrel2
    6z icon would have been a major hit. At this point what’s most critical is the remnants of the Canadian vortex ejecting East Quickly for optimal high pressure placement. We can score a major winter storm even if the surface lows runs west of the apps in that scenario, with the classic high placement you’ll still have a locked in wedge and lower pressures along the Atlantic coast
  25. burrel2
    Euro is still an absolute classic cold air damming scenario. The combination of squashing/dissolving the Canadian vortex quickly as it ejects East and over amplifying the southern stream wave leads to a warmer outcome in the mid levels... but would be a catastrophic ice storm as depicted for cad regions of nc/sc. the models will waffle on the strength of those two features but they all are in agreement on the perfect placement of the damming high and timing of the southern wave. If they’re correct in that timing we will get a major ice storm.
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