burrel2

Can't help it guys... That 63hr NAM is hittin me hard....woooo!!!!! Warm nose vanished on this run... getting obliterated at 4am with more to follow... wooooo!!!

Also there’s definitely some sleet soundings early Friday morning on the NAM. Looks like the changeover line will include a 10-15 mile wide band of sleet for a while at least in the upstate, (assuming the NAM is right).

Models have trended perfect for the jackpot zone to be situated along the Western nc/sc Border. Best forcing here plus cold enough mid levels and any elevation you have helps with the marginal surface temps. I could easily see places like long creek/cashiers/Brevard being the jackpot winners in this set up if the track holds. 8-12 inch totals seem reasonable here. definitley a shot for accumulating snow even down the i85 corridor in SC if that’s where the best banding sets up early Friday morning. I don’t think surface temps will be a major issue under the axis of heaviest precip. Really just depends on where that sets up and whether or not your far enough north and west to avoid the 850mb warm nose shown early Friday morning. (This warm nose goes away by 7-8am so even if it causes rain or sleet in the upstate there may still be a window of heavy snow from 8am until 10 or 11am if you’re under a heavy band). warm nose and surface temp issues look worse from Charlotte to Raleigh, imo. Gonna take some luck in that area to score accumulations but it definitely possible in the set up. (Have to be in the heavy band and that is looking like it’ll be south of Greensboro to Raleigh) plenty of time for adjustments though.

Trends have been great for my backyard.

Also somehow the NAM has a sliver of a warm nose at 850mb that wrecks my profile at hour 84. Not a good sign, hopefully it's just noise and anyone Northwest of the 850mb low will be fine. Boundary layer temps look great on the NAM as expected... 32-33 at the surface under the heavy returns for the entire upstate and central NC.

NAM is moving the upper low due east, fully occluded, no neg tilt or phasing. I don't see how heavy precip makes it to the NC/VA border if you extrapolate out another 12 hours. Luckily for you guys up there that's right where you want to be 4 days out anyways.

There will be enough cold air for whoever gets under the heaviest bands just north west of the 850mb low Friday morning. its well below freezing everywhere but near surface and near surface doesn’t matter if it’s ripping 2-3 inch per hour rates. also, we’ve only seen the global model depictions for surface temps and they aren’t that far off... 40/32 before precip starts and most settle around 33-36 outside of the mountains. Won’t be surprised to see the hi-res models show 31-32 under the heavier bands when they get in range. (Assuming the low track and intensity doesn’t change much). I managed a nice 3 inch snow last year during the middle of the day thanks to heavy rates when no models had me dropping below 34-35 (including short range models). And that system didn’t have anywhere near the dynamics at play like this one will.

That’s perfect for the upstate and Charlotte

Contrary to the 2009 upper low, the eastern Escarpment appears like it’s going to be colder from 900-950mb thanks to easterly flow causing adiabatic cooling. The eastern escarpment could jackpot in this scenario while places to the East deal with a thicker boundary layer and more questionable 850mb temps. It’s early but I’m liking the zone from northern Pickens/Greenville county in South Carolina up to hickory/wilkesboro and points west of there in NC for the jackpot zone if the ull tracks as advertised. timing also appears good for this area with heaviest precipitation occurring from 3am-10am or so.

A bowling ball cutoff low this deep from Canada and in mid January is gonna produce. Just a matter of who’s on the nw side of the 850 low.

Trends are awesome for my backyard on icon and nam. Also the nam thermal profile is way colder than the globals. It’s got snow reaching the ground in Alabama at the end of its run.

Still a lot of uncertainty on what’s going to eject and when for the follow up storm around Monday of next week. It appears like if the timing is right we could get a decent surface wedge with that wave with fairly a low dew point airmass. Would be nice to not have to rely on top down cooling/heavy rates like is shown with the first storm. of course the first storm is far from ironed out as well...but there’s no question boundary layer temps are going to be a concern with that one even if things work out perfectly.

Can’t even buy a single fantasy storm on any model the last few days. And the good pattern they were teasing earlier has went to absolute shit. Might be a good time to step away from the models for a few weeks.

I only got around 1.5-2 inches Xmas night, but it was honestly as much as I could have hoped for in my location. Also got my biggest storm ever a few weeks later. Finger crossed 2021 plays out like 2011

I’m trying to understand what you guys are getting excited about? There may be some snow flurries/showers in nw ga. Outside of that I don’t see anything other than mountain upslope snow. I’ll go on record saying no snow will fall for anyone outside of the mountains from the frontal band before the dry slot hits. Anything else is relying on upper level evergy and wnw surface flow...aka... flurries for nw ga and some snow for the mountains and that’s it.

In 2010/2011 the big events happened just before each spell of blocking temporarily broke down. If that holds true this year I’d look for a storm 10-15 days from now.

I'll be pretty depressed if something doesn't produce from Dec 31st-January 5th.

All we can hope for is the blocking theme to continue... if it does we will get our chances. I’m pretty surprised by the lack of fantasy storms, I think that will start to change soon.

This wave behind the Xmas storm has a lot going for it. Cold dry air in place and blocking. If we can get a system from this I like our chances.

This could be a nice dump for the western side of the mountains... don’t get your hopes up anywhere else.

pattern looks awesome for a threat around that time... all the models have a nice cold blast... just need a disturbance to roll through on it's heels.

One negative about this event is there’s no extremely dry surface air to start. A lot of times the cad over performs due to under modeling of how dry the preceding air mass is. That won’t be much of a factor for this storm.

Also, that assumes the confluence/high pressure remains as modeled. Weakening or strengthening of that of course has a big effect on wintry outcome for all of us.

I expect the trough to sharpen and strengthen more on modeling as we get closer just like what happened with Monday’s system. That’s good and bad, imo. If it plays out like that, it will mean more waa, but it will also strengthen the low pressure west of the apps before it transfers to the coast which is a key ingredient for strong CAD. You don’t usually get strong low level cad without a Miller b style low pressure west of the apps. that will mean less chance of any snow for northern Nc, but increases odds for damaging ice in the NC foothills,Bc of increased qpf and better cad feed. just my opinion, fwiw

If the global models are close on the details... the surface temps in cad regions will come in much colder on the hi-res models when they get in range. You can take that to the bank (assuming the h5 depiction doesn’t change much.. and it probably will, lol)