burrel2
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Everything posted by burrel2
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For the next storm we should all just rent out a hotel in the kill zone and weenie out together.
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Grit eater has me going six to midnight in the main thread! There is still hope for us i85 people!
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I need details... pics?!? where are these off hour euro runs? Storm vista?
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I doubt anyone In here is expecting those numbers, I’m certainly not.
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Just when I was ready to throw in the towel, the fv3 pulls me back in! lol
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FV3gfs is dropping 8 or 10 inches of snow here by midnight tomorrow. This is the best run yet for the upstate.
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I'm throwing in the towel for my back yard. I'll be lucky to get a dusting of sleet and a glaze of ice Sunday morning before melting that afternoon. I'm traveling to my in-law's house on the NC/SC border at 3000 feet in the morning though. Figure we will get smoked there!
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Rgem doubles down on the warmer/amped solution.
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It's always way too warm at the surface. I am encouraged to see the rain/snow line so far south on it though. You can see where it's isothermal running through the upstate.
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I'm guessing the CMC/Rgem are wrong here since the Euro/gfs/fvgfs,ukmet,icon,NAM, etc are all tightly packed with a different solution. Rgem usually does great with thermal profiles and maybe a touch on the cold side for surface temps, but I don't think it can be used at the moment, b/c it's so off-beat synoptically speaking. (unless it's right)
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Don't believe I've ever seen the RGEM so far off from other model guidance at 48hrs. It has the primary low still back in alabama while every other model already has the primary transfered to the georgia coast line. Hopefully it's on crack, bc it's much warmer than other modeling as a result.
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It's a point and click sounding on TT. Tried to click MBY between Clemson and Central.
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Mmmm.... ARW even staves off the warm nose here early Sunday morning?!?
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ARW playing means tricks on me... never gonna happen.
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Best I can tell the NMM and ARW have trended colder and more supressed initially. Anybody have some good 12z images?
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38 and wet snow falling here now.
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looks like nws GSP was right to go against ishomue with the NAM's thermal profile... lol Too early to claim victory though, it could easily go the other way as the event unfolds.
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NAM drops 15 inches of cement paste on the northern upstate from walhalla to easley to greenville to spartanburg.
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I honestly can't decide what it's going to do in the northern upstate. I think the most logical outcome is mostly cold rain, but there's definitely a chance we could get buried. I'll remain cautiously optimistic, but expect 1 inch of sleet accumulation for my storm total. If that lead finger of precip could be mostly snow for us, we could really rack up. It appears the mid-levels will be borderline cold enough for the finger... but surface temps are around 35-37. If the mid-levels are cold enough, i imagine we could cool the surface down to 32-33 with heavy rates inside the finger. Regardless, the mountains on the NC/SC border are going to get obliterated, both by the lead finger and the main storm. I'm calling the jackpot for the storm as somewhere around rosman/brevard with a total of 20 inches.
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comparing hours 60 to 72 of precip panels with last nights ukmet and the 12z. The precip shield is definitely more suppressed, the high pressure is a good bit farther to the east, and the low pressure is a little slower. All good trends it appears.
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Upstate SC won't get more snow than Raleigh.
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06z CMC trended the mix line further south in to the upstate Sunday morning compared to 00z. Still has mostly sleet/zr all the way to the nc/va border though.
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One thing I'm concerned about for the upstate storm potential. I've noticed over the years, while CAD is always underdone on the models, an arriving CAD is usually a few hours later than models show. They usually arrive later, but hold out longer. In the upstate, we are relying on the CAD arriving during precip late Saturday night. If it builds in a few hours later than expected, we will waste all the front side precip to rain. Something to keep an eye on. I do fully expect the entire upstate to drop in to the upper 20's when the CAD entrenches though, and seemingly we still have quite a bit of precip left to go through Sunday evening. So even without the front end thump it should be significant. (I will say that the coverage of precip is more unpredictable after the initial band goes through, so it's possible we don't get the modelled qpf after Sunday morning). But even if we just get a few tenths it would be bad from an impact stand point with temps in the upper 20's. For the upstate, I think the later precip arrives the better as it gives more time for CAD to build in. If we get in on the finger of precip streaking out ahead of the storm early Saturday... probably not good for us. (But great for franklinweather since he'll be snow then).
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NWS GSP update... too low on the ice accumulations, imo.
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http://www.nco.ncep.noaa.gov/pmb/nwprod/prodstat/ Grrr.....!!!
