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burrel2

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Everything posted by burrel2

  1. burrel2
    Huh? Rgem normally does very well with thermal profiles.
  2. burrel2
    I'm thinking it's about to spit out a blockbuster hit!
  3. burrel2
    The battle lines for these runs appear to be similar to the winter storm we had last January. IE: you want to be north of I-85
  4. burrel2
    06z Navgem doubles down on the westernNC/SC crush job. Verbatim it's showing well over a foot of snow in the mountains/foothills. Here is 7am Friday to 1pm Friday totals, and 7pm Friday to 1am Saturday totals... it's a lot of liquid!!!
  5. burrel2
    Navgem is firmly in the ukmet/cmc/jma camp...
  6. burrel2
    So we have UKmet/JMA/CMC that are amped with precip shield all the way back to western TN. This puts the warm nose/ mixing with rain line closer to the i-85 corridor. JMA is the coldest in that regard. Then we have NAM/GFS with a more muted precip shield, but the warm nose/mixing in line is further south/east. Euro falls somewhere in the middle of the two camps. This doesn't take in to account the surface warm layer,(hopefully we can overcome that with decent rates.)
  7. burrel2
    FWIW, the JMA is dropping over 30mm of liquid over my back yard for the event, with 850's never rising above -2C. That's 1.18 inches of liquid!
  8. burrel2
    00z JMA... continues to be cold and amped...would be a massive snow storm for the 85 corridor.
  9. burrel2
    Most of the ensemble members on the GFS are more bullsh with the westward extent of the precip shield compared to the OP. Maybe the JMA is on to something!
  10. burrel2
    It's all frozen for Western NC/SC(mby). Raleigh to Charlotte would most likely have mixing issues with that track.
  11. burrel2
    Liquid from 7am Friday to 7am Saturday
  12. burrel2
    12z JMA is a big dog! This is the best look possible, IMO. I hope it's on to something. Hard to tell with the crummy maps, but it looks like this is drop 1"plus of liquid across my area with supportive temps for snow.
  13. burrel2
    Confidence for me is increasing that we'll see some flakes and maybe a car topper. Confidence in anything more than that has decreased overnight, but there's still time for things to change drastically either way.
  14. burrel2
    Here comes the sustained -NAO now that winter is over.
  15. burrel2
    Welp, stick a fork in this winter. It's over. Maybe we'll have better luck next year!
  16. burrel2
    This gets us out to Feb. 15th....
  17. burrel2
    Where is everyone? This thread looks like the place to be for the next several weeks....
  18. burrel2
    Welp, Models took a turn for the worst last night. I see no realistic chance of snow for us over the next 10 days, with no sign of a decent pattern past that.... Winter cancel???
  19. burrel2
    Yea... it was breathtaking, pictures don't do it justice.
  20. burrel2
    Our rental car.... snow chains were a must.
  21. burrel2
    So the last 3 days we stayed in Crested Butte to go skiing. I thought I had seen a lot of snow at our cabin, (6ft). That was until we arrived in Crested Butte.... They had recieved over 100" in the last 5 days. The most snow they've gotten since 1980! It was INSANE!!!! This is what buried looks like.
  22. burrel2
    My trip to our cabin in Colorado was a success.... Had to snow shoe in and out. They had gotten about 6 foot of snow in the last week. The snow was so deep that it had a blue'ish hue when you dug down deep enough! I was in heaven out there!
  23. burrel2
    Shouldn't be a problem with the shortwave being so weak and surface low tracking so far to the south. Now, if this thing starts to crank up the coast then it might come in to play for NC people.
  24. burrel2
    That look is for sure better than what the models have been showing. We can score without ridging out west if the ridge over greenland sets up that far to the west. Looks similar to 2011 when we scored. The Euro seems to be the only model trying to build a west-based negative NAO though, but maybe it'll be right?
  25. burrel2
    I'm sure the mountains will get there share of snow before the season is over, we just need you guys to drop a few crumbs down to us.
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