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jjwxman

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About jjwxman

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    GSO
  • Location:
    Central NC

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  1. jjwxman

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    Current Surface Cape and Satellite imagery. Lots of breaks in there and that’s very concerning. I believe if the the CAPE can climb to 2000-2500 tornadoes will become a bigger threat. The sun is peaking through in the Piedmont of NC.
  2. jjwxman

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    It’s going to be a busy day across NC/SC. (And VA)
  3. jjwxman

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    The Carolinas will likely get some help from the trough tilting negative on Friday. The dynamics are just sick over central/Eastern NC by 2pm.
  4. jjwxman

    April 18, 19, 2019 Severe Event

    Everything about the HRRR for the last several runs has been just nasty for the Carolinas on Friday. If the HRRR verifies, I can easily see the SPC go moderate for wind damage.
  5. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    Regardless, I'm not sure if I've ever seen wind speeds this high above the surface over NC. Incredible. Lots of potential, but like @downeastnc said the bust potential is high as well.
  6. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    The word "Historic" should only be used during or after an event IMO. 4/16/11 was historic.
  7. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    But the 12z NAM suite just made a case for the moderate risk... Geez look at those backing SE Surface winds. Increased surface cape as well, slower with the system.
  8. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    For the Carolinas: I don't think we'll see a Moderate Risk. (but what do i know ) There are few things that will plague this forecast. 1st. The influx of tropical moisture will likely cause a warm layer around the 700-500mb level, this will weaken the mid level lapse rates. 2nd. The whole column looks very tropical, there will likely be a lot of cloud cover so CAPE will be limited. 3rd. PW values will likely be at record territory for this time of year, and with the slow progress of the system west to east, flooding will probably be the forefront of this event from training storms. I wouldn't be surprised to see some 2-4" rain totals in some areas. 4th. If we do see some sun and decent destabilization then this could turn out to be a significant severe weather event, particular for damaging winds, the hodographs are more elongated than curved, so the tornado threat should remain isolated in nature unless we get more backing from SE surface winds. A lot to decipher over the coming days.
  9. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    That's good analysis from RAH. The sun is beginning to break through now in south Greensboro, seeing some blue sky finally.
  10. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    It want be long until the sun starts to break through.
  11. jjwxman

    General Severe Weather

    Here's the 12z HRRR sounding over central NC at 20z. Storms begin to initiate shortly after this sounding at 21z. Damaging winds, and hail seem to be the main threats. Wouldn't rule out a spin up on the more discrete cells that form ahead of the main line of convection.
  12. jjwxman

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Where the heck was this in Jan and February... lol, What Beautiful set up... The 12z Euro was just a hair too warm this run.
  13. jjwxman

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Trying my best to not get sucked in....
  14. jjwxman

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The 00z GFS has the LP considerably further south than the 18z run. Probably nothing, just intriguing to me.
  15. jjwxman

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Shocking isn't! Glad I held on to my big grain of salt! Ha!
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