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FallsLake

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About FallsLake

  • Birthday 11/14/1965

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
  • Interests
    Maps & weather

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  1. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    The modeling for todays indices are about as good as it gets in the LR. PNA - Looks to go strongly positive - Great A0 - Looks to go strongly negative - Great NAO - Looks to go strongly negative - Great http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml This would come together the last part of November into December. For many of us (especially outside the mountains) this is the time of year winter storms become more possible. **as discussed already, this past storm was just a little too early in the year for a major piedmont winter storm.
  2. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    We had no fall. September into the first part of October was true summer (with the hurricanes). Then the second half of October to now it basically turned to winter. Straight from ac to heat.
  3. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Nice fantasy storm on the FV3-GFS at day 12. But the only thing to focus on at this point, is it looks like the cold is going to hang around.
  4. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Just about every year we get a period where the pond next to my house freezes over. About once every three years, I'll see Falls Lake freeze over at least partially (coves) or almost totally as it did last year.
  5. Yes, which shows we were not far from getting a big piedmont storm. If this was one month later..........................................................
  6. I just read RAH's write-up from last night: This storm has all the makings of a classical winter storm with icing over our Piedmont Damming Region. There is the classical CAD development tonight and early Thursday, with cold and dry air delivered from a very strong (1035+ mb) surface high that will become centered over NY later later today and tonight, shifting east to NE on Thursday morning. This parent high is more than strong enough, and is in the classical position to deliver cold and dry air into our region, and it will. We have a Miller type B storm in which the primary low tracks from the Gulf northward into eastern TN, then a new primary low develops near JAX around 06z/Thu and tracks along the GA/SC/NC coast as it strengthens Thursday. This is a classical winter storm track for our region. However, the mid/upper low is a problem as the track to our west and north allows very significant warming in the mid levels later tonight and Thursday (partials for 850-700) indicate 1590 meters to 1600 meters by 12z/Thursday. This means a strong warm nose aloft in which that a warm rain (characterized by temperatures in the 40s to near 50 aloft) will fall into the cold near surface layer (or cold nose). This is a self limiting process to freezing rain accrual. If this were December or January, we would most likely have 20s near surface temperatures, with much more freezing rain. It is not mid winter, it is mid-November. Therefore, this is not a classical time to have a classical winter storm either.
  7. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    I'll add to the need of a strong positive PNA, it not only stops the pacific air from flooding the country but it helps drive the storm track farther south as it develops to our west. How many times have we tracked how strong the western ridge is and how it effects a potential winter storm location.
  8. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Negative in the LR --good Edit: this was from yesterday
  9. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Remember a few years back we kept seeing a terrible look to the PNA, AO, and NAO. The models also kept showing a warm LR look but as we got closer the cold held. -EPO saved the day, and it was by itself.
  10. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Lol..you just beat me to it CR.
  11. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yeah, I guess that the AO would provide the cross polar feed and the NAO would buckle that air/pattern towards the eastern US. **just scares me that a negative PNA would try to flood the US with pacific air.
  12. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yep, but the million dollar question is; if you had to pick which 2 indices (from PNA, AO, NAO) were strongly in your favor and have the other neutral what would be the best configuration?
  13. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Today's indices (similar to yesterdays): PNA - Looks to be ~neutral in the LR AO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR NAO - Looks to go strongly negative in the LR Overall a great setup, not sure what the optimal configuration is for the SE; whereas do we want the PNA to be more strongly positive over the NAO and AO being strongly negative. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
  14. FallsLake

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    At this point the mountains are in the crosshairs; particularly the higher valleys. **which may be worse than the higher peaks My son is at App State and my wife's family live in Boone. I told them to get ready for lots of ice.
  15. FallsLake

    2018/2019 Mountains and Foothills Fall/Winter Thread

    Nothing in the NCSU winter storm database, but I'm sure there have been storms that have been overlooked up in the mountains. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database
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