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About FallsLake

  • Birthday 11/14/1965

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
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    Maps & weather

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  1. Just saw that. Definitely something to keep an eye on. There has been a few model runs that showed something close and then lost it during the last 4/5 days.
  2. Hey Mack, this is just for you man. 12z GFS temp anomalies for hour 198:
  3. Thanks for the info. I understand and it makes since; they are truly getting the average high for the day. But I'm on the fence of saying just take the high and the low and going with those numbers. There's a lot of complicating factors in weighting values.
  4. You got it man. The big question this winter is if we get substantial blocking. If so, there's going to be plenty of cold to the north to push into our region. Blocking could provide a repeat of 1995 & 2010 type winters (la nina / blocking winters).
  5. Yep, the 6z GFS would have normal type temps for many of us; but it would cool to below normal for Black Friday. Looking at the LR, it looks like a lot of slightly below temps on the way. I would add that if blocking sets in (and stays for more than a week), these temps will start showing a colder trend in the coming days.
  6. So basically they need a database to manage all the daily readings and scripting/programming to determine the weighted high and low. And what they report out to the public is generalized as whole numbers.
  7. I'm a little confused. RDU averaged normal today with the below values: TEMPERATURE (F) TODAY NORMAL TODAYS DIF MAXIMUM 67 64 3 MINIMUM 36 41 -5 AVERAGE 52 52 0 If you average 67 & 36 you get 51.5 If you average 64 & 41 you get 52.5 So they round the current temps up but round the average temps down. That's a scam, it should be 1 degree below normal today. Edit: after thinking about it, maybe the whole number temps they display are not the actual number of record; meaning maybe the average high of 64 is actually 63.6. ...or something like that..
  8. That could be the theme for the winter. +NAO/AO and we torch; particularly the SE.
  9. It looks good for us to average below normal for the month. Even after the warm start, RDU is now ~1.5 below for the month. Looking ahead, that number should grow. Today and Saturday look to be the warmest days, but even they look to be around average. http://w2.weather.gov/climate/index.php?wfo=rah
  10. The models are jumping around (more than normal). It seems in years past we would see this more when blocking was setting up. Looking (for fun) at day 16 of the 12z GFS, it does show another dump of cold air into the US; heading towards the east. So basically the important thing is most of the model runs continue to show cold air pushes into the US even though their details are jumping radically.
  11. The old reliable south and east trend will save the day.....
  12. Yep, and wouldn't this be wild; snow in Houston:
  13. PNA now looks to go positive in the LR AO dives strongly negative and then stays at least slightly negative in the LR NAO dives moderately/strongly negative and then averages negative in the LR So in the LR we could be looking at a slightly positive PNA, slightly negative AO & NAO. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
  14. Just tells us that we're in a good pattern that could produce a storm. It's all we can ask for at this time. Then if something shows under day 7, we can start focusing on it.
  15. Lol...that's what I'll do. I have a son that's moving to Boone in January. I'll be able to test that method then.