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FallsLake

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About FallsLake

  • Birthday 11/14/1965

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
  • Interests
    Maps & weather

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  1. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I saw that...We do have a little time for this to trend better.
  2. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Hard freeze coming Saturday night: RAH: A hard freeze is expected over portions of the Piedmont Saturday night, with a frost and light freeze in the SE zones that have begun the Frost/Freeze program. This will likely lead to Freeze Warnings in these areas. Clear skies, calm winds, and exceptional radiational cooling under the Continental Polar air mass will lead to lows in the 27-30 degree range over the Piedmont, with lower 30s in the SE.
  3. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yeah, we can still track freeze/frost potentials.
  4. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Well c'est la vie..... Our storm is gone. As happened many times this winter, once it got to the day 5 mark the models lose it. You can say the models are now better closer to events; or I think they've become worse in the medium range. A lesson (or rule) for next winter; storms have to be modeled less than day 5 before taken seriously.
  5. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    RAH: Monday through Wednesday, low confidence as model spread continues. We will carry a good chance of showers late Monday into Tuesday. However the storm track and timing are still in debate, along with the strength. For now, a low pressure track from the TN valley east across SC or far southern NC is favored, with cold high pressure to the north acting as a block from a more northward track. Most likely the temperatures will remain fairly cool, except possibly in the SE zones (if the warm sector can advance into that region). QPF could be significant again (1+ inch), but too early to pin this down. Much more on this potential system in the coming days.
  6. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yeah it's just fun tracking something. I wont lose sleep if/when this thing disappears.
  7. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Or to make more folks happy, expand the coverage.
  8. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    12z FV3 back to showing a big event. Has RDU with a foot (10:1). Do I believe it?....No, but it's interesting to track.
  9. FallsLake

    March 2019 Observations

    Yep, officially at 5:58 pm. But it will feel more like winter. Lots of areas will stay in the 40s with rain.
  10. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    6z GFS has backed off some but still shows frozen precip over northeastern NC into SE VA. The FV3 has less but is showing more potential then previous runs. My take looking at the current models, we could see some change over to snow for north-central NC eastwards into the north-central coastal plain then up into SE VA. But I wouldn't expect much accumulations.
  11. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    18z GFS still has the storm. We know it's got to be right, it has the Wake County split....
  12. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    From RAH: The next wx system will come during the first half of next week. It`s an interesting system with models depicting a closed H5 low dropping SEWD from the Central Plains to across the Carolinas. Thermo profiles would suggest perhaps a late-season p-type concern across the Piedmont, but given that this system is so late in the forecast period, inevitably the details will change below now and then. Will continue to monitor model trends, and for now will show increasing PoPs during this time.
  13. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    This would be nice...
  14. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The 12 GFS continues to show the storm, but the FV3 pushed the low through too quick which didn't allow the high to the north push down in time to change rain over to snow. But that's just details. Players are on the field; just don't know how good they are....
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