FallsLake

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About FallsLake

  • Birthday 11/14/1965

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
  • Interests
    Maps & weather

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  1. RAH is staying cautious, but mentioning the possibility of some light snow (especially for folks down east): Temperatures should remain nearly stationary on Thursday with only a few degrees of warming possible thanks to the presence of plentiful clouds and consistent CAA downsloping surface flow. Strong 1045mb Canadian surface high pressure will continue to settle southeast, helping to drive a secondary surge of cooler and drier air into central NC during the late afternoon and evening hours. This continues to occur in conjunction with a re-resurgence of mid to upper-level moisture in response to a developing coastal low out ahead of an approaching mid-level shortwave. The 00z ECMWF and its ensemble members, which have tended to remain the less excited solutions of its sister models in past runs, have come into better agreement with the run to run consistent GFS/GEFS and CMC. Now, just about all synoptic models at least hint at the possibility for a few snow flakes at the back edge of the system. With the 00z suite, models have trended to show a stronger and geographically closer coastal cyclone development Thursday evening at the leading edge of the mid-level trough, allowing for a greater draw of Atlantic moisture inland while also increasing the cold air entrainment processes into central NC from the NW. As a result, the chances of some low to no impact snow flurries have increased a bit, ironically mainly in the non-climatologically favored areas along and east of the interstate 95 corridor. Even with the most recent increase in snow flurry possibilities, several limiting factors will need to be overcome to see even trace accumulations at the surface. This includes and is not limited to (1.) Overcoming above freezing surface/near surface temperatures; and (2.) Overcoming the dry air in place at the surface. As of now, even the cooler modele`s wet bulb temperatures remain above freezing across our forecast zones which increases our confidence in little to no accumulations likely. Still, can`t rule out some flakes able to fall through the mid-level dry layer to the surface, primarily during the 21z Thursday through 03z Friday time frame where moisture and cold air should meet up briefly. After 03z Friday, low and mid- level drying should become too much for the weakening upper-level saturation in the favored ice crystal growth zone to overcome as we progress further into the overnight hours. For now, have mentioned a few locations of no-accumulation -RA and/or -SN in the weather grids across the northeastern Piedmont and Coastal Plain during said time- frame to account for the threat.
  2. Can anybody tell where the euro thinks the snow cover will be?
  3. I hear you. Part of my criteria for a good winter storm is how it affects the roads (or power lines). Years back we had a <1" (mid-day) event that stuck right to the roads and caused havoc. I consider that a great event. Other times we received >3" but it never stuck to the roads (forgettable).
  4. Yep, it will be interesting (in a bad way) to see if we get blanked. **only thing I keep thinking about is with a warm winter, do we flip to a cold spring. If so, we could score an overnight event in March that at least gives an accumulating event.
  5. Yeah this is terrible. What gets me is the PNA, AO, and NAO have all been bad. AO might get to record positive readings for the winter. https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml I guess we can be happy for the folks out west. Plenty of mountain snows to give them good runoff during the growing season. Cheap produce for us this summer...
  6. Just waiting to see if this ends up being the worst winter ever for my location (for the past 30 years). So far this year I've only seen some light sleet with a few slushy snow flakes (no accumulation). 2012 is number one (worse year) right now. This was the only event:
  7. What do you think about a cold spring? Which could add to the severe chances.
  8. Ended up getting about an hour and a half of sleet and rain (just rain now). There was a period where it tried to switch to snow. Lots of slush snow flakes. So I'm just glade to see some wintery precip. this winter.
  9. Got down to 21 on my 6' (off the ground) thermometer. 19 on the 1' (ground level). We haven't had any snow but this is winter weather.
  10. Why spend the money, in a few months we'll all be baking in the tropical heat and humidity here.
  11. It's not over yet. We've been lucky and have had at least one good storm the last few years. Not looking good right now but we still have time for things to change. Maybe mid February into the first week of March we'll get that storm.
  12. You need to be posting this at koreawx.com/banter.
  13. Nice thing is we don't have to be perfect this time of year. But I've always said (and I think everybody agrees) the PNA is crucial for us SE folks. When it goes negative we usually have no chance (even if the EPO is negative). **again usually...
  14. RAH is also looking at Saturdays potential. But they say it shouldn't amount to much (if anything): "The high pressure system will be centered over eastern Quebec on Saturday morning and extend southward into the western Carolinas. At the same time, a surface low pressure system will organize across the Missouri Valley on Saturday morning and then lift into northern New England by Sunday morning. High level moisture will spread into central NC Friday night and a developing/lifting warm front will extend an area of light precipitation from the mountains east toward the Piedmont late Friday night and Saturday morning. There is a chance that the developing band of precipitation may start off as some wet snow or mixed rain or snow, mainly across locations near and north of Interstate-85. Still a lot of details to be resolved and the timing of this system has shifted a great deal but at this point it appears that any snow that falls will be associated with the lifting warm front, conversational in nature and short lived." Dealing with next weeks potential, I like the setup shown on last nights Canadian at day 10:
  15. It definitely looks like well flip to a colder pattern during the next two weeks. Big questions then are how long is the cold pattern and then of course do we get the big storm. But, as we've discussed in the past, even a great pattern doesn't always provide the storm. Or there is a storm and somebody is left out. Example, there could be a big coastal storm and folks in western sections are left out (some ensemble runs show this --> or the opposite, or south and not north, etc.). Point is we need the cold and we need a pattern shift that will give us multiple chances to increase the odds that more on this board can score a storm. Refocusing away from the big storm, we could see our friend the clipper(s) start to show in the medium range. Just need to get a deep enough eastern trough to get some of those northern disturbance south into our region. Many times we'll not see these solutions in the LR modeling so it could be something that pops inside 5 days.