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About FallsLake

  • Birthday 11/14/1965

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
  • Interests
    Maps & weather

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  1. We're really good at getting 33 and rain. But honestly, for this time of year a cool rainy forecast is fine.
  2. As always, it will be close. I think many of us will just get a very cold rain; which if you think about it fits well with the time of year (Thanksgiving --> cool, overcast, rainy). But who knows....
  3. RAN stated the possibility this morning. Fascinating that can occur in our part of the world with the smaller water bodies.
  4. Ended up with a nice rain event (the liquid over performed..). As of 2:51 RDU received .93".
  5. Getting a little sleet mix here at the office (US1/US401) for the past 15 minutes.
  6. Wife said it was sleeting in east Durham County near Wake County boarder about ten minutes ago. It's a race...
  7. Many of us are hoping to see a few snow flakes (including me), but I'm also happy with the rain showing up on radar. Be nice to get a 1" of rain and then a few flakes...
  8. As Mr ROSS stated above, any snow flakes in November is a win. From RAH: Non-liquid precip chances: As models converge on an agreed-upon common timing of precip and vertical thermal structure, confidence is fairly high that the northern Piedmont and northern Coastal Plain (roughly along and N of Hwy 64) will see some wet flakes and/or sleet pellets mixing in with the rain on the back edge of the precip. But based on how the strongest and deepest lift (including fgen and that aforementioned strengthening upper divergence) is lining up vertically and temporally with the arrival of the cold air and within the DGZ, I have some concerns that we`ll see a short period of sufficiently high precip rates to switch us over to mostly snow and sleet for a brief time, although likely no more than an hour. While the ground should be warm enough to prevent accumulation there (NC State Climate Office agnet stations confirm this), heavy enough rates may produce a light coating on elevated surfaces. Confidence in this scenario is not high enough to warrant any mention of accumulation at this time. But this is certainly something to be watched closely this morning.
  9. The 6z GFS continues to show the potential wintery event. I think it's possible, but (of course) there are many factors not in the favor of a good winter storm. One key thing to tract in the coming days (if we're tracking), is how fast we can get the lower dew points to push into the CAD regions. Right now, I don't think it's enough. Dew points in the teens get into N VA but only get down into the upper 20s (at best) down into N NC. My thoughts, if this was to materialize as shown on the GFS we would probably get some mixed snow/sleet with the rain. And then if it did switch over it would really have a hard time accumulating. **it would be a typical (rare) November winter event outside the mountains.
  10. It will probably get cold. Add 10 degrees to the 18z GFS and we'd still be talking record temps. I would think 40s highs with lows in the 20s would be a great guess at this point. **folks have been talking about the GFS cold bias in the LR.
  11. Yep, many areas do not get above freezing for highs one day. That would be something to see in November.
  12. Just hoping they hold off until after 8pm. WRAL is concerned about pop-up storms before the main band.
  13. Yeah, it feels like when I was a kid living in Florida. But we didn't care. We still went for the candy.
  14. I appreciate any rain, but man I could use a good heavy rain for run-off purposes. Ponds around the house are still very low.
  15. Unfortunately, somebody is going to get the strong storms during the prime trick or treating time. Being selfish for the RDU area, it looks like we may be good with the main band coming in closer to mid-night (per current models and what B.Panovich stated above). WRAL also seems to think this will be the scenario, but RAH is much more vague and even has "Likely" precip starting at ~6pm for my grid location.