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FallsLake

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About FallsLake

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
  • Interests
    Maps & weather

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  1. FallsLake

    General Severe Weather

    Had a great storm a couple hours back. Got right at 2". Really needed it.
  2. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Being a weather nut, I would prefer a nice lightning show over a man-made one any day.
  3. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    ^^RAH back to the doom and gloom for the 4th: Thu/Thu night: The potential for both thunderstorms and high heat indices remain the biggest weather concerns for the 4th of July. PW will be anomalously high, nearing or perhaps exceeding the daily record, as the weak surface wind field along the Piedmont trough makes for stagnant air, contributing to the stifling heat. Thicknesses are likely to be 10-15 m above normal with deep mixing. While forecast soundings and the steering flow pattern suggest that there should be considerable mid and high cloudiness, a brief capping near 850 mb Thu morning may initially inhibit cu formation, leading to increased insolation. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s, and with expected dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, a heat index ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s is reasonable. Those outdoors and not taking breaks in air conditioning will need to be mindful of threats posed by heat illnesses in such conditions. The very weak mid level flow featuring multiple hard-to-track perturbations within a very moist column should result in a high pop but with low timing and spatial predictability. Given the precip variation among large scale models, will cap thunderstorm pops at around 50% late in the day through evening (potentially interfering with holiday activities), with a tapering down to lower chance late overnight. I would not be at all surprised to see all models trending even wetter for the 4th in their later runs. And with weak steering, moderate CAPE, and high PW, heavy downpours could produce pockets of high, flooding totals.
  4. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    Here's a good link of weather hazards from NOAA (...quick catch all): https://noaa.maps.arcgis.com/apps/MapSeries/index.html?appid=cf93575e5535467199da7358ee6c825c
  5. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    Happy Summer Solstice everybody! Good news: The length of daylight will now start to shorten with each passing day. Bad news: It will continue to warm for about another month. **we have to reach equilibrium.
  6. FallsLake

    New GFS is now operational

    Yeah I noticed it this morning, when the FV3-GFS wasn't listed on Tropical Tidbits.
  7. FallsLake

    General Severe Weather

    You'll eventually get some rain if the models are even half right.
  8. FallsLake

    General Severe Weather

    Finally!!! 1.02" at the house. Had a heavy downpour with some nice wind gust. The monkey is off the back...
  9. FallsLake

    General Severe Weather

    Don't want the severe weather, but would love to see the better rain coverage folks to our SW are currently getting.
  10. FallsLake

    June 2019 OBS

    Nothing here. I ran into some heavy rain in north Raleigh, but nothing when I go up to the house. The haves and the have nots...... RAH is still banging the drums for a lot of rain this weekend into next week. I missed out on so many chances this last week, I'm at a "I'll believe it when I see" attitude.
  11. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Looks like we get more chances for rain starting this Wednesday. Most of the models show ~ 1-2" during the next week. LR models show the possibility of some cool days here and there (..big variations of when). Any cool days we get this time of year should be treasured.
  12. FallsLake

    May 2019 Observations

    Only .23" yesterday. Places just south of me did three times better. But I still got something, hoping today provides a little more.
  13. FallsLake

    General Severe Weather

    Bad for the hail, great for the rain. I feel lucky to have the .09" from the first band. Really hoping for a little more with the second band.
  14. FallsLake

    May 2019 Observations

    I see many parts of SC have refreshing dew points in the 50s.
  15. FallsLake

    May 2019 Observations

    The only saving grace is the humidity is relatively low and the wind is blowing --> RDU is currently 95/64 with winds 12 mph gusting to 25 mph.
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