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About FallsLake

  • Birthday 11/14/1965

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  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
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  • Location:
    20 mi N of Raleigh NC
  • Interests
    Maps & weather

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  1. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Still not sure how far south the back door "cool" front will get: .SHORT TERM /FRIDAY AND FRIDAY NIGHT/... As of 305 PM Thursday... Principle forecast challenge remains how far into n-cntl NC the cold front moves, then to what degree it retreats nwd during the afternoon and evening hours. Forecast confidence is relatively high for the srn half of cntl NC, with persistence lifting and scattering of morning low cloudiness and fog, with with temperatures again in the upr 70s to around 80 degrees. Forecast confidence is similarly high that nrn locations from near Roxboro to Henderson to Lake Gaston and Roanoke Rapids Kerr will remain cool, in the 60s, with some upr 50s possible, amidst CAD and continued post-frontal low cloudiness, and a chance of light rain and drizzle in the morning. The greatest uncertainty and 10-15 degree bust potential will exist roughly along and just north of Highway 64, including the major metro areas along I-40. There will be a sharp gradient in temperatures in this corridor separating the two regimes noted above. The front will remain quasi-stationary and become increasingly diffuse Friday afternoon and evening, with an otherwise persistence forecast of continued mild conditions, with yet another round of late night low cloudiness and areas of fog owing to the persist unseasonably humid conditions in place.
  2. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    12z GFS and CMC go to a cold pattern after day 7. At least killer freezes coming up for many across the SE.
  3. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Boring weather.....The only interesting thing is the question of how far south the back door cold gets tomorrow. As RAH states, there's a huge bust potential for highs (cool or warm). Low Confidence in Friday`s forecast across central and northern Piedmont and Coastal Plain. Challenging forecast give the model discrepancy in the location of the back-door cold front Friday morning, with the NAM indicating a brief reprieve from the anomalous warmth, at least across the northern half of the forecast area, via a shallow in-situ wedge north of the boundary. Meanwhile, the GFS and EC stall the front briefly along the VA-NC border, keeping all of central NC in the warm sector. Huge bust potential wrt forecast highs Friday. If the NAM is correct, northern areas will struggle to get out of the 50s with some patchy drizzle possible through the first half of the day. Meanwhile, areas south of the front will once again warm into the mid to upper 70s. Am not ready to go quite that cool across the northern Piedmont, but have certainly trended towards the cooler guidance. Conversely if the GFS and EC verify, all of central NC will see another day of near record warmth with mid 70s to lower 80s everywhere. Lows Friday night ranging from mid 50s north to lower 60s south.
  4. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    18z NAM at mid day Friday(GFS keeps the cooler air in VA):
  5. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Killing freeze is going to happen. We're too early in the year for the warmth to keep hold for another 8 weeks (..until most are safe). Already the LR models are showing a trough for the eastern US. Of course this is way out in fantasy land but the pattern will flip cold before it's done.
  6. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Right now is the time to invest in peaches.
  7. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    After the freezing temps early this month, most will not see temps below freezing the rest of February. Overall temps will be way above normal if not breaking all time February warmth. If the pattern turns cold for March, I dare say there is a chance that March could end of colder than February with actual temp average. That would be the same as September being warmer than August.
  8. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    LR indices look about the same as yesterday. Everything is on our side except the PNA (strongly negative). I've always thought that was the most important (for the east). But if we get the AO, NAO, and EPO to all go negative; not sure if that can force the cold air into a SE trough. Or as others have said, a coast to coast trough...
  9. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Maybe the AO helps feed cold air into NA, NAO will help force the storm track south, EPO keep a trough in eastern NA, and maybe a negative PNA will allow storm system to enter the US from the west. at least that's my dream...
  10. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    LOL....beat me to it. But the PNA is also negative......
  11. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yep, nothing big happing. Small chance of something small in 5 days but even that is unlikely. But dealing with the LR, the indices are interesting today: PNA - Looks to stay negative (bad) AO - Looks to go strongly negative (good) NAO - Looks to go strongly negative (yes! I said strongly negative----great) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml EPO - Looks to stay negative (good) ftp://ftp.cdc.noaa.gov/Public/gbates/reforecast2/teleconn/4indices.png So the question is, can the PNA screw everything up?
  12. February 2018 Obs

    RDU folks, the below radar shows where the front is (band of showers currently crossing Durham): https://radar.weather.gov/radar.php?rid=RAX&product=N0R&overlay=11101111&loop=yes Temp drops off quickly behind the front.
  13. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    12z GFS at day 5. As discussed above, there is a possibility of some wintery precip, but again I would say this is still a long shot. Best case is somebody seeing some wintery precip fall from the sky; which is still a win with this pattern.
  14. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    The orientation of the precipitation (SW to NE) would increase the chance of the cold air overtaking the precip before it left. Again I'll say low chance (..much better for high elevations) but definitely something else to look at.
  15. Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    The 6z is not a robust on precip. amounts but it could get a little interesting. A nice CAD does set up with dew points down to the lower 20s by 18z Tuesday. We just need more precip. It could happen in the form of heavy drizzle, but we would need it just heavy enough to drop the temp to below freezing. **I would say this is unlikely to happen, but hey what else do we have to look at.