Southern Track

I’m in the Five Forks area and I’m pretty comparable. 37.8/36.2

I know you can’t show it but can you describe it.

Still curious about the first few days of December. The models are pretty consistent with a storm coming out of the gulf with the active southern branch. With the blocking retrograding you would hope the high pressure would be more stubborn then just scouring NE out to sea.

When that really does happen it hurts the most.

We haven’t seen the effects of a -NAO to our weather in so long, I will have no idea what to expect lol

The angriest meteorologist on the East Coast.

Don’t West-based NAO’s start as east-based and progress westward anyway?

Yeah, it's just that seeing an solid agreement on the NAO going negative like that it something we don't ever see. IDK if it will help us but we will see. Also, from what I've read the NAO will become the dominant driver going into end of FEB, early March.

Pattern is as bad as it gets the next two weeks. Alaskan Ridge, West Coast Trough, Southeast Ridge.

I've seen worse looks:

Thought that people may wanna see this before it disappears tommorow lol: https://www.esrl.noaa.gov/psd/forecasts/reforecast2/teleconn/

You"re right it has been locked into that for days. Don't shoot the messenger, but a few mets have been saying that the models are really gonna have a hard time with the propagation of the PV downward, which IMO means they have no idea what's gonna happen.

I don't know man, it seems every met and legitimate weather forecaster I follow still are using the Euro as their go to. Even with the SSW. Evidently the GFS was forecasting an event earlier this season like what's supposedly coming up but the Euro wasn't, and it didn't come to fruition. The Euro and the GFS are on the same page with the SSW this time that's why everyone is harping on it I think.

Not sure how the Euro has been verifying, but it looks better than the GFS: Here's the JMA: And the CFS from yesterday: