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FallsLake

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Everything posted by FallsLake

  1. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    There's always a chance a big storm could hit, but statistically not likely. Many (many) years back I took a trip with my parents to Colorado. It was early September and it was great; right before all the trees started changing colors and the cold took over. Drove up to Pikes Peak and traveled through the high elevation areas west of Colorado Springs (..Cripple Creek area). Later in life my wife and I camped in the Rocky Mountains National Park; but funny that was in July and we had a great time then as well. So basically I wouldn't worry about the weather. I would go when it best fits your time and budget.
  2. FallsLake

    April 2019 Observations

    Man it is a soupy day. Luckily the sun didn't come out or it would have got hot. But, big changes are coming during the next 24 hours. From RAH: Excellent radiational cooling will result Mon night with the center of the incoming, strengthening high forecast to be directly overhead at 12Z Tue. And skies will be clear, aside from perhaps some increase in thin cirrus possible around daybreak. Forecast low level thickness values in the 1335-1345 meter range favors with excellent radiational cooling potential favors temperatures in the mid 30s to around 40 degrees, down a category or two from previous forecasts and very similar to the preferred MET and EC statistical guidance. Some of the colder EC ensemble solutions even support a light freeze at the typically colder sites. A Frost Advisory will need to be considered later tonight and/or Mon.
  3. FallsLake

    April 2019 Observations

    my backyard is a river. Sitting at 3.48" since late yesterday. Over 2" in the last 5 hours.
  4. FallsLake

    April 2019 Observations

    Had another good storm this morning. Have ~1.15" since yesterday. I really enjoy seeing all this pollen get washed away.
  5. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    That's great! It's going to be nice to get you back to the area; and to have you as a RDU person. You know this area well, we can score big and bust big.
  6. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Yep, maybe we see something: Special Weather Statement National Weather Service Raleigh NC 919 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2019 NCZ008-022>025-039>041-074>077-084>086-088-021415- Guilford NC-Hoke NC-Durham NC-Alamance NC-Wake NC-Moore NC- Montgomery NC-Granville NC-Cumberland NC-Scotland NC-Richmond NC- Lee NC-Chatham NC-Randolph NC-Harnett NC-Orange NC- 919 AM EDT TUE APR 2 2019 ...Mix of rain, snow, and a little sleet expected over portions of the Sandhills and Piedmont through mid morning... An area of mixed rain, snow, and a little sleet will track northward through the Sandhills and central Piedmont through 1030 AM. In areas where the precipitation becomes briefly heavy, a switch to mostly snow is possible, and a light dusting can`t be ruled out. However, due to the warm ground, any accumulation will quickly melt, leaving the pavement just wet. Precipitation is expected to become just rain by late morning. Some briefly moderate to heavy rainfall is possible through this afternoon. Locations impacted include... Southern Pines, Raleigh, Greensboro, Durham, Cary, High Point, Chapel Hill, Burlington, Sanford, Asheboro and Graham. PRECAUTIONARY/PREPAREDNESS ACTIONS... Motorists should use extra caution and slow down when driving through heavy precipitation. && LAT...LON 3618 7865 3579 7848 3560 7860 3552 7871 3552 7870 3549 7867 3525 7882 3495 7931 3504 7984 3542 8001 3586 7999 3618 7964 TIME...MOT...LOC 1313Z 199DEG 24KT 3522 7927 $$ GIH
  7. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    This is for eyewall:
  8. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Our problem is we're too far north (sometimes it bites both ways). The sun is strong this time of year, even through the clouds. Southern Wake, Chatham, and maybe right into Raleigh have a shot. I guess we do to but it'll be close.
  9. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Just looking at radar and location, Sanford should be in a good place right now. Any folks from that area??
  10. FallsLake

    April 2019 Observations

    RDU got down to 31 this morning. As stated before, each freeze we get this time of year could be the last until fall.
  11. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    But you're still in a good spot. This was just posted from RAH: SPECIAL WEATHER STATEMENT NATIONAL WEATHER SERVICE RALEIGH NC 640 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 NCZ073>077-083>086-088-021300- STANLY-MONTGOMERY-MOORE-LEE-HARNETT-ANSON-RICHMOND-SCOTLAND-HOKE- CUMBERLAND- INCLUDING THE CITIES OF ALBEMARLE, PLYLER, TROY, BISCOE, MOUNT GILEAD, PEKIN, BADIN LAKE, ELDORADO, SOUTHERN PINES, PINEHURST, ABERDEEN, EAGLE SPRINGS, SEVEN LAKES, CUMNOCK, GUM SPRINGS, SANFORD, TRAMWAY, DUNN, ANDERSON CREEK, TIMBERLAKE, DUNCAN, ERWIN, ANGIER, LILLINGTON, WADESBORO, POLKTON, ROCKINGHAM, HAMLET, EAST ROCKINGHAM, LAUREL HILL, LAURINBURG, ANTIOCH, ASHLEY HEIGHTS, RAEFORD, ROCKFISH, SILVER CITY, FAYETTEVILLE, AND FORT BRAGG 640 AM EDT Tue Apr 2 2019 ...WINTRY MIX OF RAIN AND SNOW LIKELY THROUGH 9 AM ACROSS SECTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN PIEDMONT AND SANDHILLS... As precipitation moves into central North Carolina from the south early this morning, the presence of cold dry air at the surface will lead to a wintry mix of rain and snow. During instances of heavier precipitation, the mixture may temporarily change to heavy wet snow. While little if any impacts are expected from the wintry mix, where the bursts of heavy wet snow occurs, the snow may briefly stick to grassy surfaces before melting.
  12. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Very hard to get April snow outside the mountains. (usually) You need the perfect setup with precip falling at night or early morning. But (like in our case) you need the night to be clear to cool the air down towards freezing. So early morning precip is the key. RAH states we have until ~10 to see any mix. For RDU folks, precip will overspread southern Wake County first and this may be the prim place to see a few flakes.
  13. FallsLake

    April 2nd 2019 Possible Flizzard Discussion&Obs

    Too bad I can't get the precip now. Sitting at 30.7 degrees.
  14. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Most definitely do not take it seriously. Just something to track. If what the euro or the earlier ICON runs have the right look there could be some mountain snows.
  15. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Lol..the 18z FV3 says Orangeburg could be a little too far NW to get snow (south GA, coastal SC, & SE NC).
  16. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Man the 18z GFS is close to something big. Knowing our luck, we'll get the perfect setup but nothing wintery (like the November storm). Just too late in the year.
  17. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The 12z ICON has joined the euro on showing a significant elevation (mountains/foothills) winter storm. It also shows your area getting some snow. The 12z FV3 continues to show a wintery mix for areas farther east; and now the 12z GFS is starting to show something. Bets still on the euro and now the ICON. Main reason is time of year (climatology). Still very reasonable to get mountain snows; whereas other areas it's very rare.
  18. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I absolutely agree.
  19. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Here's a euro link: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/north-carolina/significant-weather/20190328-2200z.html
  20. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Euro is more of a mountains/foothills event. Mack would actually get a little sleet before things shifted northward into the higher elevations of NC and VA. Of course we would like to see the FV3 verify but I would put my bets on the euro.
  21. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I'm surprised Orangeburg is not all over this. 12z FV3 snow depth at hour 168:
  22. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Man, this place is hot! We do have some frost/freezes coming for tomorrow night: SHORT TERM /TUESDAY AND TUESDAY NIGHT/... As of 355 PM Monday... 1030-1035 mb continental Polar high pressure will build from the Great Lakes to the nrn middle Atlantic states, while ridging swd in the lee of the Appalachians, Tue-Tue night. This high will be led swd by a secondary surface cold front, analyzed at 19Z from Long Island wwd across nrn NJ and s-cntl PA, forecast to cross cntl NC Tue morning. Related CAA and nely breeze/low level flow will yield unseasonably cool temperatures mainly in the lwr-mid 50s, despite a mostly sunny afternoon that will follow north to south clearing of the preceding post-frontal band of stratocumulus. A shortwave trough will dig from the cntl High Plains this afternoon, sewd and offshore the GA/FL coast by Wed morning, with associated cloudiness that will remain south of cntl NC. Skies will consequently remain clear; and given the presence of the aforementioned strong surface ridge, strong radiational cooling will result. Freezing temperatures are consequently likely throughout cntl NC overnight (26-32 degrees), down a few degrees from previous forecasts. This will likely necessitate a progression of Freeze Watches/Warnings in subsequent forecast issuances where the growing season has officially begun, relative to the climatological median date of the last Spring freeze (ie. the ern Coastal Plain and Sandhills).
  23. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I saw that...We do have a little time for this to trend better.
  24. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Hard freeze coming Saturday night: RAH: A hard freeze is expected over portions of the Piedmont Saturday night, with a frost and light freeze in the SE zones that have begun the Frost/Freeze program. This will likely lead to Freeze Warnings in these areas. Clear skies, calm winds, and exceptional radiational cooling under the Continental Polar air mass will lead to lows in the 27-30 degree range over the Piedmont, with lower 30s in the SE.
  25. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yeah, we can still track freeze/frost potentials.
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