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FallsLake

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Everything posted by FallsLake

  1. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep, we're going to have to wait and see how this evolves. Kind of fun having something to track.....Even if it is just cooler or wetter solutions.
  2. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    RAH from last night: .LONG TERM /SATURDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 245 AM Thursday... An interesting pattern setting up for the long term period, starting with a cold front passage in the pre-dawn hours Saturday. Models generally agree this front will be located along the coast by 18Z Saturday; however, with the upper trough axis still to our west and SW flow aloft, this will promote overrunning of a shallow low level wedge of cooler and stable air that will move in from the north behind the aforementioned front. The end result will be a mostly cloudy, cooler, and potentially damp Saturday, esp east of the Triad, with rainfall amounts of a couple tenths of an inch possible in the post-frontal rain. Cooler too, with ample low cloudiness and rain. Meanwhile, it`s worth noting as mentioned in the latest TWOAT, the trough of low pressure located over the central Bahamas is progged by several models, including the latest ECMWF, to lift north and merge with the aforementioned cold front remnants off the SE coast on Sunday. Fortunately these models keep any low pres development well off the coast, but should this happen, central NC may actually benefit from this pattern by way of increased N/NE flow which would advect drier air into our area from the north. On the other hand, a front that stalls closer to the immediate coast would warrant PoPs across our eastern zones for Sunday. But the trends have tended to favor the drier option. Finally, such vigorous NE flow would keep temps below normal for daytime highs. That system will exit to our NE on Monday, with mainly dry weather continuing for our area. The next short wave will then approach from the west Monday night and Tuesday, with climo or higher PoPs needed for Tuesday and perhaps into Wednesday with the passage of this short wave. So we do want the low to develop and merge with the front; with (even more) cooler and dryer air being advected in.
  3. FallsLake

    General Severe Weather

    That's how I ended my work down in Raleigh yesterday (...not romantic but dark). It really wasn't a big storm but it knocked out the power around 4pm near the US1/US401 split.
  4. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    18z NAM trends a little cooler with the potential weekend CAD. Midday on Saturday:
  5. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    RAH now a little more optimistic that the front will push through our area this weekend. .LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY/... As of 250 PM Wednesday... A cold front associated with an unseasonably strong northern stream trough/upper low passage through the NE US and Mid-Atlantic states will provide the focus for widespread showers and storms at the start of the period. The timing of this front through the area continues to be a source of large model spread and high forecast uncertainty. General timing brings the cold front into the area from the NW late Friday afternoon and will slip slowly south through the overnight, before finally settling south of the area on Saturday. Low-level frontal convergence underneath the right entrance region of a ~90 kt upper jet streak associated with the upper trough moving through the region will result in deep/strong ascent across the area. Precipitable waters of 2.0-2.25", MLCAPE ~2000 J/Kg and a belt of strong westerlies of 30 to 35 kts dropping south into the area will support the threat for organized strong to severe storms, along with the threat of heavy rainfall of 1 to 2 inches with localized flash flooding possible Friday afternoon and evening. If latest model trends verify, a shallow of wedge of cooler and stable air will advect south through the day on Saturday as the cold front progresses south into SC and GA. While convection should follow the front, models suggest a a period of ana-frontal precip lingering across at least southern portions of the forecast area INVOF of the h8 trough axis Saturday afternoon and evening, possibly lingering into Saturday night. As the cooler and drier continues to filter into the area from the north Saturday night and into Sunday, courtesy of a strong ~1030 parent sfc high over New England, rain chances should decrease, leaving behind primarily cloudy and cool conditions Sunday and Monday. Rain chances return as early as Tuesday and Wednesday with the approach of a shortwave trough from the WSW. Finally, the NHC is monitoring an area of disturbed weather located over the central and northwestern Bahamas. Some slow development of this system is possible with a low-20% chance of becoming a tropical cyclone over the next several days. As such, it is incredibly too early to forecast what impacts, if any, are possible across central NC. Make sure you follow a trusted weather source for all of your weather information.
  6. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    I've heard this winter we're going to get storm after storm that follows this path:
  7. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Rah still on board for a weekend cool down, but they are leaning towards the euro for the details. <last two paragraphs of the extended discussion> Thursday night into Friday the upper level low will rotate east towards Quebec with another shortwave diving southeast out of Ontario on the backside. The GFS is slightly more amplified with this secondary wave compared to the ECMWF, while the CMC wraps this secondary energy up and actually holds it back a bit. The GFS solution pushes a cold front into central North Carlina Friday afternoon and has the front clearing North Carolina Saturday. The ECMWF and CMC are not this optimistic. The ECMWF stalls the front over central North Carolina while the CMC washes the front out near the Coastal Plain. Looking at the GEFS also reveals that the deterministic run is optimistic compared to the GEFS mean regarding drying conditions. The overall trend for the forecast was towards the ECMWF/ CMC and GEFS mean. This means widespread coverage is likely starting late Friday evening into Saturday as a cold front oozes south through the area. PWATs ahead of the front are forecast to be around 2.1", or near max values for this time of year. Warm cloud depths are also forecast to be above 12.5 kft at times which will help to maximize warm rain processes. Saturday afternoon the ECMWF, EPS mean, CMC,and GEPS mean show continued widespread coverage. The GFS at this time is dry having the front down towards South Carolina. As mentioned above, have kept towards the CMC and ECMWF here and raised PoPs for Saturday. The other trend for Friday and Saturday has been to nudge temperatures down. Given widespread convection forecast and a cold front oozing south think temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Sunday the CMC and ECMWF show continued widespread coverage as the front stall across southern North Carolina and multiple mid-level impulses ride east along the baroclinic zone. Temperatures Sunday into Monday will likely remain below normal with a potential weak CAD developing.
  8. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yep, the 12z GFS still shows the cool down but not as pronounced. RAH said the euro was also not as enthused.
  9. FallsLake

    Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

    Usually September sees the first big breaks in the heat. Many of us can open our windows and enjoy the cooler temps. But that doesn't happen all the time. Just look one year back and see how the heat can hang around longer then normal: Lets hope for a different September this year...
  10. FallsLake

    Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

    This time of year is comparable to late February; whereas usually the heat/cold starts to get toned down, but the full force of the season can still present itself all the way into the first week of the following month.
  11. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I'm liking what the 6z GFS is showing in the LR. One nice cool down for this weekend and then another at the end of its run. **RAH states the euro doesn't agree 6z GFS for this midday Saturday (it would be drizzly, but would feel like Fall):
  12. FallsLake

    Looking Ahead to Fall and Winter

    ESNO-neutral is forecasted through winter this year: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml What could this mean (from Ian Cassette, Roanoke VA): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml
  13. FallsLake

    New NWS RADAR

    I'll talk to our developer on Monday. I actually have an older Python Toolbox script that converts the rss feeds to a File Geodatabase and then published the data. But that has to be run manually to create one copy of the data at that particular time. I'll also send that to you.
  14. FallsLake

    New NWS RADAR

    Yeah, when we start linking to the Here data (and other real-time data) we'll have to be in the cloud. Our IT Infrastructure folks are already talking about moving in that direction. NCDOT has some live data (TIMS - current road incidents) which is served out as Georss feeds. We (NCDIT) have Python scripts that convert the data every 3 minutes into SDE/SQL server, which is referenced to a published service. **This is not exactly live but close. Here's our AGOL page: http://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html
  15. FallsLake

    New NWS RADAR

    Just the services here for weather: https://www.weather.gov/gis/WebServices We are an Esri shop and display our services through ArcGIS Online. Dealing with the GeoEvent server, we are not (yet) using that cloud platform. (right now)We manage our own data on our own internal servers. We are looking into linking to real time data working through "Here" (..for congestion data). But again we're managing the backend data (our servers, not cloud (..yet)).
  16. FallsLake

    August 2019 Obs

    Got over 2" from the later afternoon storms. Started raining and it wouldn't stop.
  17. FallsLake

    New NWS RADAR

    Thanks Solak! My group is charge in organizing/providing GIS services and radar is one of the map services. Hopefully we can (directly) access any new outputs. **sometimes GIS services are only accessible through the website viewer.
  18. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    From all my years of memory, we usually (on average) get our first real Fall cool down after the first week of September. Of course sometimes we get a cool down as early as late August, but normally the heat of summer continues for at least all of August. At this point, we want to start looking northwards into SW Canada. In the next couple of weeks we should start to see this area cool down. We could even see the first signs of mountain snows in Montana (Glacier, maybe even Yellowstone areas). It doesn't immediately help us but eventually that cool air will build and spread southwards.
  19. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    That's about as much as we can hope for this time of year. Looking at the LR GFS, it looks to continue pushing fronts/troughs towards the east coast. Hopefully the fronts will get through our area. Also, this should help steer tropical storms away from us.
  20. FallsLake

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    One great thing about our area, we can get the big storm. We fall short more than we win, but ever so often...…...
  21. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    Here's something small to celebrate; the sun sets at Barrow Alaska tonight (first time since spring).
  22. FallsLake

    2019 Banter Thread

    Yeah even though it's very rare, it's something we can hope to see again in the future.
  23. FallsLake

    2019 Tropical Weather Discussion

    I hear you. I work for NCDIT GIS (formally part of NCDOT). We're tasked with developing, gathering, and serving out transportation related datasets during emergency events. It was absolutely horrible last year. I think I went three weeks without a full day off.
  24. FallsLake

    2019 Tropical Weather Discussion

    I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again. But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. Day 10:
  25. FallsLake

    Arctic Sea Ice Extent, Area, and Volume

    Thanks for the great response!! I'm actually coping this post for future reference. Your probably right about the underlying reason for the article. And we very well could be f*!&ed. But (if we want to very selfish and shortsighted), if the arctic is going to hell we might as well score some good winter storms.
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