FallsLake

^^Looking at the NWS map it looks like the dew points will spread a little eastward this afternoon: https://graphical.weather.gov/sectors/midatlantic.php?element=MaxT

currently 85 degrees at RDU, but the dew point is 48! Getting some dry desert heat...

I sure do. We need rain. I dare say we need a tropical system. Otherwise we might have to wait for the November storms to start.

6z GFS is more positive. It now shows a couple of cool downs and then warm ups. Better than all warm; which some earlier runs showed. **Precip is still not good across the SE.

^^Yeah, I've seen it hot (90s) into early October (..like last year). I've also seen it get cool (no AC needed again) after the first week of September. The last two Septembers have been warm; and last October was warm into middle of the month, but then the dam broke and fall finally arrived:

The only good thing I can see (model wise) about the next couple weeks, is that the NW US and SW Canada start to truly cool down after day 10. This will be our source for October cold (..hopefully frost/freezes).

Last year was bad as well. Looks like after this brief cool down, it'll stay hot into early October.

for many of us Fall will start tonight (weather wise): .SHORT TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH WEDNESDAY NIGHT/... As of 128 AM Tuesday... The post-frontal stratocumulus/stratus should be mostly confined to the Piedmont Wednesday morning, then skies are expected to become partly to mostly sunny in all areas in the afternoon. A refreshing NE breeze will advect in much drier and cooler air. Expect highs only in the 70s, except a few lower 80s near the NC/SC border area. Then, mainly clear and cool Wednesday night. The most comfortable night in recent memory. Lows in the 50s, with some upper 40s north- central Piedmont. &&

Fall is normally beautiful here. If we're lucky we can get 4-6 weeks of open window weather.

We do get a break this week. from RAH: .LONG TERM /WEDNESDAY THROUGH SUNDAY/... As of 245 AM Monday... Much cooler and drier Wednesday through Friday, followed by a gradual warming trend over the weekend. High pressure is expected to extend into NC/SC from the north Wednesday through Friday. It will be much cooler and drier with very noticeable drops in both temperature and humidity expected. Sunny days and clear nights are forecast Wed-Fri, lows in the 50s. Highs in the mid 70s to around 80. The normally cool spots over the Piedmont will have some mid-upper 40s. The ridge aloft will build back into the region from the west over the weekend. This will allow the surface high to remain nearly stationary over our region Sat-Sun. A gradual warming trend will begin Saturday with highs in the 80s, after lows in the mid 50s to near 60. Highs Sunday should reach the upper 80s to around 90 with dry weather to continue. && **Those cooler spots are places like Sanford and Roxboro.

Definitely feel the difference this morning with the frontal passage. Cooler and overcast with a stiff NE wind. Still not the cool crisp dew points we're waiting for but a good break from the last couple of days.

But, the models have been showing this in the LR for the last week or so. I'm afraid it'll just keep getting pushed back with each run. We've seen this before.

Yeah, we're already getting temps in 80s/60s while we're in a bad pattern. In July this would be at least 90s/70s. Last year we started to see some foggy nights in mid/late September. We kept the higher dew point, and with the longer nights allowed the air to saturate. Looks like we might see more foggy nights this year...

12 GFS still has the storm ~ Puerto Rico at day 7. Afterwards it shows it trying to recurve out to sea; but that's out in la la land. So anything is possible at this point.

Hopefully the 6Z GEFS is not good in the LR (2m temp anomaly for days 12-16):

There was a lot of hype about a cold winter. Some of us did get lucky with the December storm, but otherwise it was a bad winter.

Looks like a pattern. Everybody has heard of the 30s heat (dust bowl), maybe we'll start dropping back in the coming years. **not considering climate change.....

I like the 12z NAM. It looks to keep the storm off the coast right up to hour 84. I'm sure the outer banks would still see some damage. But on a selfish note, it would pull down some nice low/mid 50s dew points into central and eastern NC.

I feel bad for those folks. A lot of the buildings are not built to withstand that kind of (prolonged) wind.

Lol, yeah I was just joking with NRVwxfan. He moved from Columbia to SW Virginia and is rightfully expecting to see more snow. But it would funny to see a couple of southern sliders this year like the one shown. **I've been saying for the last two years we're due to see one of these storms.

For us in the Triangle, we'll be very close to the cut off line for excessive rain. 50 mile difference in the track will give folks in central NC 5" or very little. Lol, we'll probably have the Wake County cut off. But it will be opposite (then many winter storms) for the haves and have nots...

12 GFS looks like it rides just off the coast of the SE with maybe a touch of a landfall in SE NC. Would be bad for coastal NC. ^^as SENC just stated.. By the way, I'm having issues with Tropical Tidbits. It keeps wanting me to tour the sight (I have to hit skip for each click I make). Anyways to stop that?

They're talking about that now in the main forum (some saying its worthless). I would say it's another possible solution.

So we'll be dealing with higher tides as the storm approaches. You have probably been hearing about the King Tides. These are times of the year where the tides are higher than normal. Early next week we'll be experiencing one of these events. This may be a bigger deal for Florida (storm off shore and the high tides occurring at the same time); but as the storm approaches us we could see earlier then normal storm surge (even as the storm is still far to our south). http://nckingtides.web.unc.edu/how-to-participate/calendar/

Yeah, I guess we're in the sights now. One other thing to look at is how fast this storm moves. With Florence it was the flooding from a slow/stalled storm. So as you said, if it's weaker and then if it's also fast moving, a SC/NC hit may not be too bad.