FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing.
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^^and that's why we see jumps every few hour. As the models change their depictions the values are then pasted on to your respective grids.
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Hey I really appreciate it! For others, here's the versions that were released: V1.0 - V2.0 The first version of the NBM was released January 6, 2016 in CONUS AWIPS 16.1.1, after Congress mandated that the NWS develop a blended model approach following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This first version used 3 models (GFS, GEFS mean, CMCE mean) and covered temperature, wind, and sky cover over the CONUS (Continental United States) region two times a day. Version 2, released November 15, 2016 in CONUS and OCONUS (outside-CONUS) AWIPS 16.2.2, added coverage over Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. V3.0 Version 3.0, released July 27th, 2017 (AWIPS 17.3.1) incorporated additional global and mesoscale models for the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains along with running hourly and providing 1-36h forecasts. Several new weather elements were added to this version such as calibrated Probability of Precipitation (6-hour) and QPF, ceiling height and visibility, and weather, snow, and ice forecasts to name a few. An exhaustive lists of weather elements added to V3.0 can be found in NWS SCN 17-59. V3.1 NBM V3.1, which is planned to be implemented October 3, 2018 (AWIPS 18.1.1) will continue to incorporate additional global models (i.e.., ECMWF (deterministic and ensemble)) and mesoscale models (i.e., HRRR-Extended (1-36h guidance)) into its suite of model guidance to cover the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains. This upgrade will enable the NBM to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Fire Weather, Water Resources, and Marine NWS Service Program Offices. To date, NBM data has been packaged in GRIB2 and only provided forecasts at gridpoints. NBM V3.1 will introduce a new text product (similar to MOS-station bulletins) that will provide NBM forecasts at stations. The data in these bulletins are the NBM’s nearest grid point forecast to the corresponding station. We will be generating four individual NBM text bulletin products every hour, each covering different forecast horizons. For a complete discussion concerning these messages along with an exhaustive listing weather elements that will be added to NBM V3.1 and their dissemination times please see the following NBM V3.1 SCN.
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Earlier today my NWS grid forecast was set at 5-9" for Sunday (daytime period). It was reduced to 3-5" after lunch time. Now it's been bumped back up to 3-7". Again, I'm wondering what models they're using to create these output. Anybody know?
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Looking at the 12z GFS. The crazy/fantasy snow map has >10" in Wake County before the change over occurs. Even if that's half that value, we could still see some nice (actual 5-10) amounts through out the county.
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Man I don't know. Does anybody know what model the NWS uses for their grid output? You can tell they're using one with the two hour flips between p-types.
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They cut it down across the board. Sunday I was at 5-9" and now its 3-5. Then Sunday night have now have 1-2" of sleet. Edit: this might be because of reduced qpf
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Very well could be; and with past events (and being marginal with upper and surface temps) we should expect this outcome. Like I stated in an earlier post, if it ends up being primarily sleet it would be impressive to see all the forecasted qpf. Liquid to sleet would be ~4". I would call that a win. Plus amazing sledding for the kids....
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So for RDU folks, the 12z NAM did come in slightly colder. Meaning the initial snow line setups just south and east of Wake County. Then it still slowly pushes NW through the event. The last run had it eventually turning to rain back into Durham/Orange counties. But this run keeps the rain line no farther NW then the RDU airport until very late in the game; when the bulk of the precip is over.
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At hr 22 it looks better for the RDU folks. Snow line is setting up just south of Wake county; whereas is was well into Wake at the same time on 6z. So colder. Edit 12z NAM
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Looking at my grid forecast, they're giving me 7-13". I'll still call this a win with 5" with a little sleet and freezing rain. That initial snow is going to be everything. As others have stated once you get snow and if it's heavy, it many times overcomes slightly above freezing mid level temps to stay all snow.
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I've seen some impressive sleet storms. But if you're going to get as much qpf as forecasted, you either want all sleet or all snow.
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yeah, six inches of snow with some sleet and then 1/4 of ice would look nice.
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I agree, 31 or 32 degrees with moderate freezing rain will have at least half of that run off before it can freeze. I'll be real interested in the dew point to our north once the event evolves. Also as we get the initial snow, that can pull our temps down lower. If we happen to get into the upper 20s when we transition, the ice could be worse.
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This would be a fun storm for RDU. 6" of snow and 1" of ice.
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Rough time and it was doubly rough for you having a new born. Glad everything worked out; definitely a good weather story to link to her birth.
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That looks reasonable. I was here for that 2002 storm and it was horrible. We lost a car from a pine tree breaking in half, all of our fence line, and my wife watched as a tree was pulled over from its root ball because of the ice weight. **I like (a little) ice on the trees, but to an extent.
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Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it!
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Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event.
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We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends.
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Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow.
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Finally at hr 48 it's snow at RDU! The line for snow/ice/rain down towards Fayetteville and up towards Rock Mount.
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It's (now) at least a major ice storm for many (including Triangle folks).
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Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again.
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RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest.
