FallsLake

I've heard this winter we're going to get storm after storm that follows this path:

Rah still on board for a weekend cool down, but they are leaning towards the euro for the details. <last two paragraphs of the extended discussion> Thursday night into Friday the upper level low will rotate east towards Quebec with another shortwave diving southeast out of Ontario on the backside. The GFS is slightly more amplified with this secondary wave compared to the ECMWF, while the CMC wraps this secondary energy up and actually holds it back a bit. The GFS solution pushes a cold front into central North Carlina Friday afternoon and has the front clearing North Carolina Saturday. The ECMWF and CMC are not this optimistic. The ECMWF stalls the front over central North Carolina while the CMC washes the front out near the Coastal Plain. Looking at the GEFS also reveals that the deterministic run is optimistic compared to the GEFS mean regarding drying conditions. The overall trend for the forecast was towards the ECMWF/ CMC and GEFS mean. This means widespread coverage is likely starting late Friday evening into Saturday as a cold front oozes south through the area. PWATs ahead of the front are forecast to be around 2.1", or near max values for this time of year. Warm cloud depths are also forecast to be above 12.5 kft at times which will help to maximize warm rain processes. Saturday afternoon the ECMWF, EPS mean, CMC,and GEPS mean show continued widespread coverage. The GFS at this time is dry having the front down towards South Carolina. As mentioned above, have kept towards the CMC and ECMWF here and raised PoPs for Saturday. The other trend for Friday and Saturday has been to nudge temperatures down. Given widespread convection forecast and a cold front oozing south think temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Sunday the CMC and ECMWF show continued widespread coverage as the front stall across southern North Carolina and multiple mid-level impulses ride east along the baroclinic zone. Temperatures Sunday into Monday will likely remain below normal with a potential weak CAD developing.

Yep, the 12z GFS still shows the cool down but not as pronounced. RAH said the euro was also not as enthused.

Usually September sees the first big breaks in the heat. Many of us can open our windows and enjoy the cooler temps. But that doesn't happen all the time. Just look one year back and see how the heat can hang around longer then normal: Lets hope for a different September this year...

This time of year is comparable to late February; whereas usually the heat/cold starts to get toned down, but the full force of the season can still present itself all the way into the first week of the following month.

I'm liking what the 6z GFS is showing in the LR. One nice cool down for this weekend and then another at the end of its run. **RAH states the euro doesn't agree 6z GFS for this midday Saturday (it would be drizzly, but would feel like Fall):

ESNO-neutral is forecasted through winter this year: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml What could this mean (from Ian Cassette, Roanoke VA): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

Got over 2" from the later afternoon storms. Started raining and it wouldn't stop.

From all my years of memory, we usually (on average) get our first real Fall cool down after the first week of September. Of course sometimes we get a cool down as early as late August, but normally the heat of summer continues for at least all of August. At this point, we want to start looking northwards into SW Canada. In the next couple of weeks we should start to see this area cool down. We could even see the first signs of mountain snows in Montana (Glacier, maybe even Yellowstone areas). It doesn't immediately help us but eventually that cool air will build and spread southwards.

That's about as much as we can hope for this time of year. Looking at the LR GFS, it looks to continue pushing fronts/troughs towards the east coast. Hopefully the fronts will get through our area. Also, this should help steer tropical storms away from us.

One great thing about our area, we can get the big storm. We fall short more than we win, but ever so often...…...

Here's something small to celebrate; the sun sets at Barrow Alaska tonight (first time since spring).

Yeah even though it's very rare, it's something we can hope to see again in the future.

I hear you. I work for NCDIT GIS (formally part of NCDOT). We're tasked with developing, gathering, and serving out transportation related datasets during emergency events. It was absolutely horrible last year. I think I went three weeks without a full day off.

I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again. But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. Day 10:

Thanks for the great response!! I'm actually coping this post for future reference. Your probably right about the underlying reason for the article. And we very well could be f*!&ed. But (if we want to very selfish and shortsighted), if the arctic is going to hell we might as well score some good winter storms.

I'm definitely with you on truly wanting/wishing that the ice lose would reverse course; which it looks like it will not anytime soon. But saying that, what do you think of the concept that as the Arctic warms, lower latitudes could cool (especially in winter). https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/global-warming-arctic-colder-winters-climate-change-spd/ ** I suppose this could also go along with the idea that the Gulf stream could slow or stop...

Here's a good discussion (..at the end it turns to a debate) on lake effect snows for central and eastern NC. There are some good example links for 2003 and 2009. https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/an-examination-of-lake-enhanced-snow-across-central-nc-on-22-january-2014-2/ As a side note: While living in Wake Forest back in the 90s, we had a similar event whereas a cold front passed and a nearly stationary thin band of snow formed over northern Wake County. Ended up with ~1" of snow (nothing was forecasted).

From RAH: The heat wave is expected to break Monday into Tuesday in a big way. Heights fall giving way to a large scale cold front that will move into the region late Monday and Tuesday. The front may stall or linger into Wednesday. Moisture pooling and strong convergence should bring a good chance of thunderstorms and showers, with considerable cooling as well. Highs by Tuesday and Wednesday should hold in the 80s, possibly some 70s over the northern Piedmont Tuesday and Wednesday!

I've had some rain at my location but not as much as others. Next week should provide more widespread rain. One of the GFS runs had temps in the 60s at noon for one of the days. That would be amazing for July.

If the models are correct, it would cool down towards your area the next day. Hopefully most of us can get a break.

Hopefully we can get a break early next week: From RAH: The chances of much needed showers and thunderstorms are expected to increase by Monday into next week as a pattern change to less ridging and more troughing over the region occurs. A cold front or two should stall over the region during this time frame acting as a focus for convection.

Had a great storm a couple hours back. Got right at 2". Really needed it.

Being a weather nut, I would prefer a nice lightning show over a man-made one any day.

^^RAH back to the doom and gloom for the 4th: Thu/Thu night: The potential for both thunderstorms and high heat indices remain the biggest weather concerns for the 4th of July. PW will be anomalously high, nearing or perhaps exceeding the daily record, as the weak surface wind field along the Piedmont trough makes for stagnant air, contributing to the stifling heat. Thicknesses are likely to be 10-15 m above normal with deep mixing. While forecast soundings and the steering flow pattern suggest that there should be considerable mid and high cloudiness, a brief capping near 850 mb Thu morning may initially inhibit cu formation, leading to increased insolation. Highs should be in the low-mid 90s, and with expected dewpoints in the low-mid 70s, a heat index ranging from the upper 90s to lower 100s is reasonable. Those outdoors and not taking breaks in air conditioning will need to be mindful of threats posed by heat illnesses in such conditions. The very weak mid level flow featuring multiple hard-to-track perturbations within a very moist column should result in a high pop but with low timing and spatial predictability. Given the precip variation among large scale models, will cap thunderstorm pops at around 50% late in the day through evening (potentially interfering with holiday activities), with a tapering down to lower chance late overnight. I would not be at all surprised to see all models trending even wetter for the 4th in their later runs. And with weak steering, moderate CAPE, and high PW, heavy downpours could produce pockets of high, flooding totals.