FallsLake

I've heard this winter we're going to get storm after storm that follows this path:

Rah still on board for a weekend cool down, but they are leaning towards the euro for the details. <last two paragraphs of the extended discussion> Thursday night into Friday the upper level low will rotate east towards Quebec with another shortwave diving southeast out of Ontario on the backside. The GFS is slightly more amplified with this secondary wave compared to the ECMWF, while the CMC wraps this secondary energy up and actually holds it back a bit. The GFS solution pushes a cold front into central North Carlina Friday afternoon and has the front clearing North Carolina Saturday. The ECMWF and CMC are not this optimistic. The ECMWF stalls the front over central North Carolina while the CMC washes the front out near the Coastal Plain. Looking at the GEFS also reveals that the deterministic run is optimistic compared to the GEFS mean regarding drying conditions. The overall trend for the forecast was towards the ECMWF/ CMC and GEFS mean. This means widespread coverage is likely starting late Friday evening into Saturday as a cold front oozes south through the area. PWATs ahead of the front are forecast to be around 2.1", or near max values for this time of year. Warm cloud depths are also forecast to be above 12.5 kft at times which will help to maximize warm rain processes. Saturday afternoon the ECMWF, EPS mean, CMC,and GEPS mean show continued widespread coverage. The GFS at this time is dry having the front down towards South Carolina. As mentioned above, have kept towards the CMC and ECMWF here and raised PoPs for Saturday. The other trend for Friday and Saturday has been to nudge temperatures down. Given widespread convection forecast and a cold front oozing south think temperatures will be below normal for this time of year. Sunday the CMC and ECMWF show continued widespread coverage as the front stall across southern North Carolina and multiple mid-level impulses ride east along the baroclinic zone. Temperatures Sunday into Monday will likely remain below normal with a potential weak CAD developing.

Yep, the 12z GFS still shows the cool down but not as pronounced. RAH said the euro was also not as enthused.

Usually September sees the first big breaks in the heat. Many of us can open our windows and enjoy the cooler temps. But that doesn't happen all the time. Just look one year back and see how the heat can hang around longer then normal: Lets hope for a different September this year...

This time of year is comparable to late February; whereas usually the heat/cold starts to get toned down, but the full force of the season can still present itself all the way into the first week of the following month.

I'm liking what the 6z GFS is showing in the LR. One nice cool down for this weekend and then another at the end of its run. **RAH states the euro doesn't agree 6z GFS for this midday Saturday (it would be drizzly, but would feel like Fall):

ESNO-neutral is forecasted through winter this year: https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml What could this mean (from Ian Cassette, Roanoke VA): https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/analysis_monitoring/enso_advisory/ensodisc.shtml

I'll talk to our developer on Monday. I actually have an older Python Toolbox script that converts the rss feeds to a File Geodatabase and then published the data. But that has to be run manually to create one copy of the data at that particular time. I'll also send that to you.

Yeah, when we start linking to the Here data (and other real-time data) we'll have to be in the cloud. Our IT Infrastructure folks are already talking about moving in that direction. NCDOT has some live data (TIMS - current road incidents) which is served out as Georss feeds. We (NCDIT) have Python scripts that convert the data every 3 minutes into SDE/SQL server, which is referenced to a published service. **This is not exactly live but close. Here's our AGOL page: http://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html

Just the services here for weather: https://www.weather.gov/gis/WebServices We are an Esri shop and display our services through ArcGIS Online. Dealing with the GeoEvent server, we are not (yet) using that cloud platform. (right now)We manage our own data on our own internal servers. We are looking into linking to real time data working through "Here" (..for congestion data). But again we're managing the backend data (our servers, not cloud (..yet)).

Got over 2" from the later afternoon storms. Started raining and it wouldn't stop.

Thanks Solak! My group is charge in organizing/providing GIS services and radar is one of the map services. Hopefully we can (directly) access any new outputs. **sometimes GIS services are only accessible through the website viewer.

From all my years of memory, we usually (on average) get our first real Fall cool down after the first week of September. Of course sometimes we get a cool down as early as late August, but normally the heat of summer continues for at least all of August. At this point, we want to start looking northwards into SW Canada. In the next couple of weeks we should start to see this area cool down. We could even see the first signs of mountain snows in Montana (Glacier, maybe even Yellowstone areas). It doesn't immediately help us but eventually that cool air will build and spread southwards.

That's about as much as we can hope for this time of year. Looking at the LR GFS, it looks to continue pushing fronts/troughs towards the east coast. Hopefully the fronts will get through our area. Also, this should help steer tropical storms away from us.

One great thing about our area, we can get the big storm. We fall short more than we win, but ever so often...…...

Here's something small to celebrate; the sun sets at Barrow Alaska tonight (first time since spring).

Yeah even though it's very rare, it's something we can hope to see again in the future.

I hear you. I work for NCDIT GIS (formally part of NCDOT). We're tasked with developing, gathering, and serving out transportation related datasets during emergency events. It was absolutely horrible last year. I think I went three weeks without a full day off.

I'm hoping all storms turn away this year. My group was overwhelmed last year during/after the hurricanes. I want nothing to do with these storms again. But the 12z GFS still shows the storm. It still recurves, but we all know that can change if the high to the east is closer or stronger. Day 10:

Thanks for the great response!! I'm actually coping this post for future reference. Your probably right about the underlying reason for the article. And we very well could be f*!&ed. But (if we want to very selfish and shortsighted), if the arctic is going to hell we might as well score some good winter storms.

I'm definitely with you on truly wanting/wishing that the ice lose would reverse course; which it looks like it will not anytime soon. But saying that, what do you think of the concept that as the Arctic warms, lower latitudes could cool (especially in winter). https://news.nationalgeographic.com/2017/07/global-warming-arctic-colder-winters-climate-change-spd/ ** I suppose this could also go along with the idea that the Gulf stream could slow or stop...

Here's a good discussion (..at the end it turns to a debate) on lake effect snows for central and eastern NC. There are some good example links for 2003 and 2009. https://cimmse.wordpress.com/2014/02/05/an-examination-of-lake-enhanced-snow-across-central-nc-on-22-january-2014-2/ As a side note: While living in Wake Forest back in the 90s, we had a similar event whereas a cold front passed and a nearly stationary thin band of snow formed over northern Wake County. Ended up with ~1" of snow (nothing was forecasted).

Same thing happened to me last week while in Kitty Hawk. Before the front came through, surface temps were in the 90s but the water temp dropped to 61 degrees. After the front came through, surface temps fell into the low 80s but then the water temp came up to tolerable levels. Crazy...

Currently at Kitty Hawk on vacation. Light rain and temps in the 60s. Wind makes it feel cooler. Next few days will be great beach weather with temps in the low 80s.

Got to the Outer Banks yesterday and man it's as hot here as the inland areas. Mid 90s yesterday and a repeat today. I'm guessing it's in the low 80s this morning. Waiting for the cool down on Tuesday.