FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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Some secondary thoughts, ground temps should at least be on the cool side for this event. We're going to have a couple of days with highs in the 40s and lows in the 20s. That should helps set the stage for this storm. **I'm currently at 31 degrees, going to be a good freeze tonight.
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I'm pulling for those snow totals to increase all the way to the coast. I hate seeing the cutoff line running through our area. Good to have a cushion.
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I hate this, but I think we need to take them seriously. Models would argue that at least the NW Piedmont gets warning criteria totals, but they are really good mets. I hope they're wrong but have to stay cautious until they jump on board.
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Just had a chance to look at the 18z NAM. If the CAD and dew points are correct, this will be a major storm not just for the western/central folks but for folks into the coastal plain.
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Lol...yep we need to cash that out now and run.
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Nice run for so far (hr 96) for our area. We will want to see this transfer to the SE to the coast for us to stay wintery.
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I agree, as long as it didn't have any "erroneous" issues it's another possible outcome.
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It would be nice sometime to get a winter storm that drops similar (large)amounts of snow across the whole county.
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For RDU folks, this was a better run. As currently modeled, the farther west and north from Raleigh the better. **If it's right I barely stay all snow through the event. I've seen this too many time.
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12z ICON was slightly better (at least for RDU) then 6z. ~3 to 4" in the Triangle before a switch over.
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12z NAM seems to be catching back up to strength (1041) at hour 75. But the push of cold has backed slightly off.
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As Grit just stated, if there is more ice then I think we get a big storm. If this is a miller a snow/rain storm we may only get that 1" (...then it will wash away).
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Lol...I'll take my >1" and be happy. Kidding aside, I would expect a little more then 1" but that is a possibility.
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Here's RDU:
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We always live on the edge. As always there's going to be transition lines running through Wake County. I think if the GFS(s)/euro are right, we're looking at some front end snow changing to rain, and then back to a little snow. Honestly I would think a few inches at best (messy). If the NAMs depiction of the CAD is right, I think we still mix but it wont be plain rain. More sleet and freezing rain, which would end up a significant storm for us.
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True. I'm hoping the next model runs start to lean towards it's depiction.
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With that look it's still perfect. I dare say anything stronger would suppress the storm way south.
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I need it to shift north a little.....
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Yep, this is our hobby. It's like playing a board game where you roll the dice every 6 hours.
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The 6z NAM is beautiful. Very pronounced CAD with an ideal high and low setup:
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Sure did. So we had some models shift north while the GEFS ensemble shifted south. Just tells us we have more model watching to do...
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The 6z ICON (compared to 0z) shifted the heaviest snow totals from western NC into SW VA.
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To his point, here's the comparison of the GFS and NAM at hour 84:
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Hey Brick it's nice to see you post man! Lets see if we can get some snow for our area.
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If the NAM is on to the colder temps (better CAD setup), I think we can get a significant storm. The question is do we get a 2009 storm (miss for us) or a 2002 storm (major ice storm).
