FallsLake

It's a problem with Tidbits. You can use: http://www.pivotalweather.com/model.php

It hasn't really had anything for the last few runs. On the latest 12z run, it does have some back building snows in NE NC. It also shows a smaller system that drops a dusting to 1" in N. NC and S. VA on the 29th.

You might get your wish; here is the 12z Canadian:

This time of year we normally don't need a perfect pattern. What it really comes down to is we need a little luck; as always.

The PNA looks to go negative in the medium range but does jump back neutral/positive in the LR. The AO stays strongly negative. I wont even comment on the NAO. I'm afraid that the cold will start dumping in the west and keep us in the rain/cold/warm up/rain/cold... pattern. Not sure what the EPO is doing (site I use is down.....Budget). That could help us if it is negative.

Good...that may bring the snow. If you had ordered a snow shovel we would have been doomed.

From RAH for tonight's event: .NEAR TERM /THROUGH TONIGHT/... As of 330 PM Tuesday... Clear skies will give way to developing overcast skies tonight from the S and W, as the cold surface high shifts E off the Mid Atlantic coast. This will induce an increasingly moist low level flow, profound warming at 925-850 mb, and deepening upglide focusing on the southern then western forecast area, as the cold dry surface air gradually moistens with lowering cloud bases overnight. This is a somewhat challenging forecast, as the initial surface wet bulb temps, especially across the Piedmont, will be well below zero. While these readings will be trending upward from SE to NW late, in lockstep with the arrival of spotty precip, these readings are still likely to be near or below freezing over the far NW Piedmont through daybreak. Given the dry air above 700 mb (and above -10C) and subsequent lack of ice in the clouds, precip should be mostly in the form of drizzle or freezing drizzle. As the expectations are for very spotty light precip with the shallow lift, it`s difficult to say with much confidence how much coverage we`ll see. But all it will take is a trace of freezing drizzle to produce enough glazing for travel problems, especially with the recent cold air and observed 4" soil temps already down in the low-mid 30s over the Piedmont. Based on multiple models including convection-allowing models, the far W Triad region will see the greatest chance for an overlap of substantial low level ascent with the still-sub-freezing wet bulbs, so have left the winter weather advisory in place for a chance of light glazing. Models suggest that southern sections will see wet bulbs recovering just above freezing late, reducing the risk of icing there. But I would not be at all surprised to see a light but impactful ice accrual further E and SE outside of the advisory area, even into W portions of the Triangle and down toward Albemarle and Southern Pines, within the battle zone of the encroaching precip and slowly rising temps. Will continue to mention this potential in the hazardous weather outlook, and will monitor the evolution of precip to our S and SE through the evening to determine if an expansion in the advisory will be required. Expect early lows in the mid 20s to around 30, with temps rising overnight. -GIH

Right at the base of the mountains there's > .25". Even down into SC there's spots of .20". The above map would be bad for the morning commute. Again, I think this could be a perfectly timed event that puts out minimal precip but causes maximum affect.

Has higher totals there as well. Honestly if I was the NWS I would consider Winter Storm Watches. Cold surfaces with below freezing temps and occurring overnight.

The NAM continues to show an ice potential for areas in NE Ga, up state, and western NC. Even has some light ice at RDU. Most likely there will only be Advisors, but this could become very significant because of the cold road surfaces. .15" of freezing rain with the current cold temps would be much worse the .25 (or even higher) with warmer ground temps (like our last event).

^^I agree this has sucked. We just need to get one of these storms to stayed modeled within 5 days. In the past it was 7 days; heck we created threads 7/8 days out. But with how the models have been performing lately, it's 5 days max.

I would still take the 6z FV3 at face value. It has a small event (1-2") at day 7/8 and then a more significant event at the end of the run. Point is, these models don't have a clue. We're seeing big swings in the medium and LR, not just in the finer details but the overall pattern depiction.

If we actually get the cold the models have been advertising, I think suppression will happen and eastern snow will occur. Again, it's been some time since the Coastal Plain folks (especial south of Rocky Mount) have scored anything.

Tropical Tidbits is my favorite: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models Select Global models to see the FV3-GFS

Too bad RDU folks can't take the FV3 to the bank. Foot+ snows next weekend, followed by a small mixed precip system a few days later, then a major sleet fest at day 14. That would personally push this winter to an A.

18z 3K NAM does show light spotty freezing rain/drizzle over NE Ga, Up state, into west and central NC. A couple of things that can make this worse than normal; we've had some really cold temps (surface/pavement temps are cold) and it would be coming early in the morning (no sun and then rush hour).

Great game! I would love to see Brady win one more.

A storm like this may not be modeled correctly right up to go time.

They switched to a point of the FV3 is now showing a nice storm and the GFS not. But the FV3 still had the storm signal at 0z. This would be nice for the folks down east in SC and NC.

As others have stated, we're not going to get a good model read on the sensible weather past 7 days. Indices are good for something to occur for the next two weeks. That's all we have at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see another huge storm at 12z for the day 9/10(or 11...) period just to have it disappear at 18z (or vise versa). PNA - Stays positive until the LR, then it goes neutral; which others have stated could signify a whole continental trough. NAO - Looks to average negative AO - Looks to go and stay strongly negative https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

And in a non-storm situation (...March 1980 had temps fall into the single digits during the day). I know there has been sunny days with highs in the teens, but single digits I don't know.

Just read RAH discussion. As of last night they are siding with the euro’s more north track. But they did mention the GFS and of course this discussion was before the 6z came out. So hopfully the euro corrects south today.

Did other models show it? Asking because. I’m in Boone visiting family and haven’t been able to check model runs to well on my phone.

Problem with the 6z GFS is it doesn’t have support from other models and the event is close at 6/7 days out. Other models would need to trend quickly today for this to be “real” or I would sucspect the 12z GFS is going to go back north.

I keep saying this, but you guys are due. I actually think this is the perfect "forecasted" pattern to give coastal areas snow. Strong blocking with strong highs that can suppress the storm track way south. Then when something does pop, you guys snow. **also if it gets cold enough, it would be cool to see bay effect snow again.