FallsLake

As discussed earlier, we need more folks from that region to join. Or we could at least do what the MA folks do and create more sub-region threads. We have one for the mountains we should create one that covers southern/middle Miss/Alabama and Florida. I could see folks there talking about hard freeze potentials and not focused too much on snow; as most current posters do.

We're just too close to the event. How much more shifts can the models do this close to the event. If we were 4/5 days out we could be more excited. **unless the models really don't have a clue....

So at hr48 the NAM is slightly more west and a little stronger, but still has most precip off the coast. Not sure how much more shifts west we can get.. ^^just saw ajr's post. If we got heavy enough rates it could work.

looks like the 12z NAM is trying to follow the RGEM; at least at hr 39.

At hr 72 it's bombing off the coast, but the precip shield is not as expansive as you would expect.

Just saw that. Still thinking this wont do anything but interesting to see how it evolves.

Well the FV3 looks interesting for next weekend. Wont get into details except it does show a low off the SE coast and there id a nice cold 1040 high sitting over Chicago.

Going back and looking at the Tennessee Valley Banner, they cover northern Miss and Alabama; which they should. We need to update ours to state the southern areas; or I really think another forum could be create that covers areas from Louisiana, middle and southern Miss/Alabama, and Florida. Maybe even include southern Ga.

Do we have any folks left from Alabama or Mississippi? Our banner states we cover those areas. Seems like we're only S. VA, NC, SC and Ga folks. **It looks like the frontal passage snows will definitely hit those areas.

It's a little stronger but not much. Looks like the eastern trough is holding back some allowing the storm to turn more northward. Edit: and comparing the RGEM to the NAM at 48 hours you can see it digging a little more to the west near La.

For what it's worth, the 12 NAM did shift considerably west with the coastal storm. Still not enough to get much precip inland but it was a big shift. Just another small shift westward and a little stronger storm and we would be in business.

The Mountains giveth (CAD) and taken away (cold chasing rain).

From RAH : The next chance of any precipitation will arrive on Tuesday, in association with the re-newed strong height falls accompanying the negatively-tilted trough and attendant Arctic cold front that will move through the area late Tuesday/Tuesday night. Models have trended faster, more progressive with this system, sweeping it well out into the Atlantic waters Tuesday night. Given the faster, more progressive timing with this system, the potential of seeing any significant accumulations from a rain to snow change-over, before the precipitation ends is becoming less and less.

Here's the euro:

Yeah, I guess it's better than having nothing. You would think that one of these 8-10 day storms will eventually work out.

It would be funny if the FV3 and euro showed snow on their 12z run. They were the ones that initially saw something.

Nope, and the Canadian went down as well. But on the positive side, the Canadian does have a nice storm showing in the 8/9 day range.............................................................................

Good news with the indices today: PNA - Now looks to stay positive into the LR **last couple of days it was showing negative AO - Continues to show strongly negative NAO - Continues to show positive **but what's new I'll take a +PNA and -AO combo any day. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

It uses the JB calculation.

I think if we can get the precip behind the front (as discussed), we'll have no issues with it being snow; especially with the surface temps quickly crashing through the 20s. We've had these type of event in the past, problem is they're rare. This is where our friends over in Tennessee and even into NW Ga usually do better. **mountains really help our forum with CAD but kill us with these type of events (usually).

From RAH (not a lot but they did mention it): Another surge of cold air is expected with the cold front expected to move through the area on Tuesday. Any precip with the system is expected to be generally along and behind the system. This may lead to a brief change over from rain to snow before the light precip exits. Regardless, much colder temps will filer into central NC again by mid next week, with lows ranging from the mid 20s NW to the lower to mid 30s SE and highs ranging from the upper 30s NW to the mid 40s S/SE.

That's not as bad as I thought. That's within the "swings" you would expect at this range for a small event.

Looks like the 6z FV3 took a step back on the potential event next week. Don't have totals but definitely not the 3-4" shown at 0z. The euro really didn't have anything as well. At this point, if I had to bet I would say this will be a none to minimal event.

^^And it's (6z) trying to joint the party for the next weeks possible event (step in the right direction):

yep: