FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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Ok folks don't laugh, this is the only time I'll be able to post a pic with this event. Sleet on my back porch:
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Sleet still coming down. My porch is getting crusty white look to it.
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Big pieces of sleet coming down.
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Sleet is coming down pretty good. Pinging off the windows.
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Sleeting here as well.
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I'm getting the sleet shower. Might be the highlight of the storm for me...
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There's a lot of verga right now. Some of the heaver bands may make it to the ground. On the slim chance we could moisten up the column maybe we could see a little more sooner. Looking at the radar Northern NC looks to stay under a constant feed of precip (verga) for at least another few hours.
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For RDU folks this will be close. As always we're right on (or near) the line of getting just rain or a significant winter event. Might come down to monitoring temps and precip timing during the day tomorrow. I think right now the foothills, parts of the southeast Piedmont, NW Piedmont, into VA are looking solid for at least winter storm criteria conditions.
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Here's my (clear-cut)grid forecast: Saturday Cloudy, with a high near 39. Light northeast wind. Saturday Night Rain, freezing rain, and sleet before 3am, then rain or freezing rain between 3am and 4am, then freezing rain after 4am. Low around 31. East wind 3 to 6 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Rain before 4pm, then a chance of snow and sleet. High near 37. Northeast wind around 8 mph. Chance of precipitation is 90%. Little or no snow and sleet accumulation expected. Sunday Night A chance of snow and sleet before 7pm, then a chance of rain between 7pm and 1am, then a slight chance of freezing rain after 1am. Cloudy, with a low around 31. Chance of precipitation is 30%.
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For RDU / eastern folks, some of the models are trying to build in precip a little faster. The 3K NAM shows this and also the WKF_ARWS2; which I'm not sure how good it is, but... This is at hr 48 and precip is building fast (faster even then the NAM):
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True, but that was a different look from the 3K NAM (maybe it has better info). Still a little bit of time for the other models to catch on (if there's anything to catch on to). So in short, we still have hope..
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Even the CMC gives you some icy love:
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Yep, maybe a few more surprises coming up.
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3K NAM has a very different look this morning. It develops precip much quicker then the last run which puts many more folks on the eastern fringe in the game:
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18z GFS 10:1 ratios. Most of central NC totals are from the Monday event:
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18z GFS is also ever so colder with the surface temps for the main event. It now has ice just past Greensboro; whereas at 12z it was just NW. Also it has more development for the Monday event. Lots of 1/2 to 1" totals across central NC up into VA.
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I think there's a chance. I know .25" of freezing rain warrants a Winter Storm criteria, but I'm not sure what warrants an ice storm warning. Edit: Thanks CentralNC!
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We've had some shifts to colder surface temps today. One more shift colder and Raleigh is in an ice storm.
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18z NAM is slightly colder at the surface. Now gets freezing rain right up to RDU.
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We still have a little more time to see the models trend colder. One or two steps south and it changes the game for everybody (some with more snow, other with ice).
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CMC looks to hold it's ground for a major ice storm for up state to Charlotte to Raleigh. It anything it's a little colder at the surface than the past run. **first time it's trended back colder
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12 NAM looks to be a significant ice storm for northern foothills and NW Piedmont into S VA.
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That high is coming in a little stronger (compared to 6z) as well.
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I think the thread and timing was fine. It'll still be an event for some of the folks on this board (NW NC / S. VA). Also we can't win them all; meaning we'll track storms and lose them. Winter can still make a come back. We've had at least a few fab Februarys.
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I really don't know what to believe with the models. I suppose good old fashion meteorology is what we need to be looking at. We'll need to keep an eye on how low the dew points / wet bulbs get, and I know I'll be closely reading RAH/NWS discussions.
