FallsLake

Honestly I don't know. The best bet for us is to follow the NHC track/cone. They do look at the models but also put their years of meteorology to work to make the best guess at where this thing will eventually go.

So the 6z HWRF did come in considerably south of the 0z run. It hits just south of the NC/SC boarder and then moves NW. Definitely a trend towards the euro.

But the 6z HMON is coming in north. Looks like an initial hit just north of Cape Lookout. The 6z HWRF is slightly SW of it previous run at hour 75. Looks like it could be a Wilmington hit. Bottom line, there's going to be a lot of small adjustments all the way to go-time. And even then, the storm won't do exactly what is modeled.

The one nice thing about the latest GFS run is it pulls in really nice cool air as the storm meanders back to the SE. So if there is mass power outages, we won't swelter in the heat.

12z NAM (at hr84) is west of the 6z GFS (at hr90).

Just checked the generator and it's working fine. I'll start filling 5 gallon drums late Tuesday if it looks like it'll directly affect my area. The weather wienie in myself would love for this to hit Wilmington and then plow right for RDU. But the logical part of me says keep this away. I went through Fran and not having power for a couple of weeks sucks.

Don't normally post here because much of the discussion is out of my knowledge level. But I do know that each week we pass (with cold, cool, average, or even not blazing temps) towards early September minimum is crucial. So just looking at the 6z GFS, it doesn't look that bad for surface temps. 850 temps do show pushes of much above normal temps but surface temps are at or just above freezing (more reasonable). So I think the big question is cloud cover; but again the farther into August we can get the lower the sun angel and the less affect of clear skies. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=gfs&region=nhem&pkg=T2m&runtime=2018072906&fh=0

Sure haven't. If anybody has any info it would be nice to know he's at least ok.

I hope nothing serious has happened. Otherwise I hope he comes back. He's one of the big knowledgeable posters. When everybody contributes, incredible amounts of weather information flows from this site. He's part of that...

I agree. He hasn't responded in over two weeks. Was there any issues on this site; like arguments with other posters? If not, it would be nice to check (if possible).

I'll take a sleet storm. Just have to get enough to make it relevant. I've said this 10 times in the past, but my favorite storm of all time was the 1996 January storm. Got 6" of mostly sleet which was amazing. Stayed cold afterwards and a week later had a huge freezing rain event. Even the January storm of last year was great (to me). That was nearly 5" of sleet and snow.

Yep, officially 6.1". They had 1.2 before this storm and now the from Dec 1st total is 7.3. Below are totals for the last two days: WEATHER ITEM OBSERVED TIME RECORD YEAR NORMAL DEPARTURE LAST VALUE (LST) VALUE VALUE FROM YEAR NORMAL .................................................................. <THIS IS FOR YESTERDAY> SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 0.2 3.0 2000 0.1 0.1 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 7.0 1.6 5.4 0.5 SINCE DEC 1 7.3 2.2 5.1 0.5 SINCE JUL 1 7.3 2.3 5.0 0.5 SNOW DEPTH 6 <And here is Wednesday> SNOWFALL (IN) YESTERDAY 5.9 R 4.0 1946 0.1 5.8 0.0 MONTH TO DATE 6.8 1.5 5.3 0.5 SINCE DEC 1 7.1 2.1 5.0 0.5 SINCE JUL 1 7.1 2.2 4.9 0.5

I think their official snow amount will be 6.1". They received .2 after midnight yesterday: **for some reason I can't past right now.

Where's pack?

It's hard living in this area. We're just cold enough to have a shot at most east coast winter storms, but end up falling short most times. We have a another potential shot at getting something (ice) Monday. Again, the cosmos has to be in line. But because we have a shot, we'll track each model run.

Terrible for my location. That band has dissipated coming out of Durham and I think northern Wake may get the shaft on this. Will probably get some accumulations but not very much. I guess I shouldn't be complaining, but it's going to hurt see the snow map with higher numbers to my west and east. Oh well done venting...

Pack it's on your door step. RAH thinks you may be in one of the sweat spots with 2-3"

Yeah, I'm disappointed. Just looked at the Euro and it's just cold and dry for RDU for the next 10 days. We may get some kind of clipper (..never modeled well) give us something but the big storm signal has slipped away. Way out at 10 days it has some kind of system, but that's fantasy range. For folks in the deep south, this might be a good pattern for you. Any waves that do pass to the south could give you some rare wintery preicp.

Mostly sleet again, some flakes mixing in (34.1). After looking at the latest RAP, this might be what I get for the majority of the event. Lots of frames where I'm in the "purple".

The latest RAP is ever so colder for areas to the east. RDU is going to be on the line for some of the heaver amounts (...or should I say rates).

0z NAM hour 21:

Oz NAM better for RDU. Looks like it will flip between snow and rain with heaver rates.

Dealing with the last couple of runs of the HRRR, it backed off on the intensity of precip which then backed off on the cooling. The latest 0z increase precip rates some which then also increases mixing; particularly around RDU. So basically if you want snow, you need heavy precip to occur.

Latest RAP(20z) is out and it continues to show RDU getting hit hard. Hour 19 to correspond to the past post with hour 20:

Here's the latest RAP at hour 20: