FallsLake

Only 15 days out.......:

We just keep getting the lows to cut to the NW. Not our year. Sad thing, there has been some really cold air to our north. We just couldn't get things to line up right. As others have said, usually we have to thread the needle to get a storm. I swear it seems like a couple weeks back we were threading the needle to not get a storm.

It's not looking good, but I think we will get one more shot by the end of this month. Indices for AO and NAO look like they could go negative in the LR (..but PNA looks to stay negative). Maybe -EPO will balance that some. I got lucky with the big snow in December, but it's been a huge disappointment afterwards.

We knew it was coming. There was no support from other models, and it had to fall sometime. Of course a lot of us were hoping it would pull a miracle. It was fun tracking this long shot for the last two days.

Yep. Other models are trending towards it but not enough. I think central VA up through the MA have a decent shot. Of course I'm still rooting for the FV3....

There's been storms where its had to play catch up in the past, but it (and other models) should give us pause in getting excited right now. Again, lets see what the 12z runs say.

Many years back my Dad was stationed there. From his stories, you will see snow and cold.

Bummer, I'm in the snow hole and only get 12"..... It did lead the way for the December storm. I would really like to see more model agreement. GFS is trying but still not there. Lets see what the 12z runs bring.

6z GFS backed off slightly but still has the idea. FV3 still shows a significant storm. Here's RAH: As the high moves offshore it will move into a better position for in-situ damming and moisture will approach from the west as a disorganized wave of low pressure moves in. Isentropic lift increases significantly after 00z Monday as the first real chances for more significant precipitation in the long term begin and increased frontogenesis occurs along our northern periphery. Rain chances will remain through the end of the period and everything is expected to be liquid at least through 00z Wednesday but many details will need to be ironed out regarding this system over the next week.

Yeah it's stepping towards the FV3; which is showing a significant winter storm at the same period (day 7) then something else a couple days afterwards. I sill refuse to get drawn in; but if we can get more model support and get this to day 5, maybe....

Well the 12z FV3 has the Tuesday storm again. Minor to significant ice event across the Piedmont sections of NC, VA, and north parts of the up state. That's only 7 days out. In years past, we would start getting excited about the possibility. Honestly I expect the model to lose it at 18z. Plus there isn't other model agreement as well.

Nothing looks good on the models for a widespread SE winter storm. Yeah, maybe some CAD areas score a little ice but nothing big is showing right now. Only positive thing, is it's looking like we don't torch like we did last year. The GFS from a couple of days back showed this possibility.

Most definitely. I'm almost expecting to see the 7/8 day disappear and another day 10/11 show up; keeping us hooked. But at least we have a little bit of hope.

Lol..lets hope. I am keeping an eye on the day 7/8 time period. Maybe we can get something wintery.

Well that's it, Punxsutawney Phil just said it's going to be an early spring.

The 6z GFS and FV3 both show some ice/snow for central NC northwards on days 7/8. At this point I wouldn't get excited. We still need more model agreement, get closer to the event, and wrap out heads around the idea of getting a storm where it rains first then changes over to wintery precip; which we know is difficult.

If it's right spring is here. Doesn't get bellow freezing in the SE through mid month, and it wouldn't look good afterwards. FV3 is better. It still has the day 8/9 storm. Lets hope it is right.

As olaf posted above there is a fantasy winter storm at day 10. But we've been burned so much this year with day 10 storms nobody is taking it seriously. Maybe if it's still showing Saturday and Sunday we might start beating the drum; but even then only if other models support it.

Hour 432 on the CFS is looking good :

I think you can add the mountains into the factor. 10+ degrees colder on the west side. As stated before, the mountain can help us with CAD or hurt us by impeding cold dense air over the mountains.

The FV3 shows chances of wintery precip at and past day 10. But we've seen that story many times already...

You really want to break areas into zones with similar weather. One big reason the Tennessee Valley folks broke away from the SE was because of the different weather mechanisms that cause weather on this side of the mountains. CAD is a major component to most our winter storms; but not for the folks west of the mountains. On the other hand you can get good snow in Tennessee with arctic frontal passages, but not too much for us. So in short, You could create a CAD sub-forum (not Carolinas); but the biggest obstacle is the fact that most major population areas fall in the CAD zone. **so most folks would just post there anyways..

As discussed earlier, we need more folks from that region to join. Or we could at least do what the MA folks do and create more sub-region threads. We have one for the mountains we should create one that covers southern/middle Miss/Alabama and Florida. I could see folks there talking about hard freeze potentials and not focused too much on snow; as most current posters do.

We're just too close to the event. How much more shifts can the models do this close to the event. If we were 4/5 days out we could be more excited. **unless the models really don't have a clue....

So at hr48 the NAM is slightly more west and a little stronger, but still has most precip off the coast. Not sure how much more shifts west we can get.. ^^just saw ajr's post. If we got heavy enough rates it could work.