FallsLake

Looking at radar, you might have another hour of snow. Hopefully that will give you an additional 1/2 to 1".

Congratulations to everybody getting snow this morning. Nothing up here but it's second best seeing you folks score something. Keep the pics coming.

I would love to see you guys score. I think you got a decent chance.

I thought you guys got ~1 with the December storm; then it got washed away.

Yeah we can hope. Nothing to lose. Precip would be developing right over us, which can be a good thing; but very hard to model.

NE parts of NE SC and SE NC just might see a surprise event. Even a dusting would be a win.

The 12z RGEM followed the NAM in showing a light event for NE SC into SE NC. 10:1 shows > 1" for areas just inland.

We do have the latest HRRR:

The one good thing about the predominant trough in the west, is the fact that they're getting lots of snow across most of the western states mountain ranges (^^as you guys are stating). This is where the western folks get most of their yearly water supply. So in short, look for good deals this upcoming year on vegetables, fruits, and nuts. **bad side is there could be a larger burn season coming up this fall with all the spring growth.

RAH gives us a little hope. It's all we got: The EC, GEM, and NAM all remain dry through Thursday. However, the latest 2 runs of the operational GFS, along with a majority of the GEFS members have trended wetter Monday night and into Tuesday; with an area of precip blossoming east of the mountains, in response to shortwave perturbations embedded in the broad cyclonic flow aloft and resultant weak spin up of a sfc low across SE US. Will keep forecast dry for now, but will closely monitor as temps aloft and at the sfc would be sufficiently cold enough to support some light snow(liquid equivalent ~.10") across the NC Piedmont. cP airmass in place will begin to moderate on Thursday as the parent high across the area begins to break down, under zonal flow aloft. Significant model differences arise by Friday and into the weekend, as a series of shortwave troughs with Pacific origins eject east across the CONUS. While it looks like the arrival of the deeper moisture will hold off until Friday or even Saturday, like precip could spread into the area as early as Thursday night/early Friday morning. Given antecedent cP airmass in place, favorable nocturnal timing of precip across the area Thursday night/Friday morning, could support a brief period of frozen or freezing precip at onset, before changing over to all rain.

The 6z GFS looks similar to the 0z for the Wednesday event. Maybe we can pull something out of the hat.

Been in Winston-Salem for a conferene the last few days. Cold rainy one day, warm the next, and now cold rainy again. Good thing I’ve been a little out of the loop, looks like the snow/ice have vanished again.

It's definitely not over. We've seen the models back off in the past just to come back as we get to the day 4 period.

Yeah, bad turn for the models. It may not turn back favorable but it still has time to do so. On to the euro..

The CMC would have everybody rain for the first event. The second would be a light wintery event with more of a freezing rain signal for most of Wake County.

So it seems most of the operational models are showing two event: 0Z Euro & CMC - Would have the first event too warm but provide a wintery solution for the second. 6z GFS & FV3 - Would have both systems drop wintery precip across at least NC northwards. The GFS has more snow with both systems with snow down into SC for the second event

More of the models are trying to show two events. That would be fun, and as you said above then take us right into spring for the weekend.

From RAH: .LONG TERM /THURSDAY THROUGH MONDAY/... As of 320 AM Tuesday... Overall trends of the guidance is for more in the way of focus of rainfall along a wavy frontal boundary from the Gulf Coast into the SE states late this week into early next week. In addition, trends along with more ensemble model solutions suggest that some of the very cold air that has been locked up in the Midwest to the Great Lakes will finally spill southward into our region later this weekend into next week. It is linking the cold and the storminess together that would be problematic, as more ensemble members show. However, the forecast confidence is still low for the specific details over our region, especially with the amount and depth of the cold air that will try to push south, down the eastern seaboard by Sunday and Monday. At the same time, the timing of a formidable storm system that is expected to track along the Gulf Coast into the SE states early next week is still uncertain. For now, we will continue to forecast a gradual trend toward colder temperatures late in the weekend into early next week, with an increasing chance of rain (for now). Until then, a couple of bouts of hybrid CAD events with some up and down temperatures each day. QPF will remain fairly light with these systems, until possibly early next week.

Yep, if this goes like typical tracking we'll lose the storm on the models at day 5. If the stars are aligned and we actually get the storm, we'll see it re-appear at day 4. But to be fair, that didn't happen for the December storm. The FV3 had it inside day 10 all the way to go time.

From RAH: Sun-Mon: As the N Great Lakes low wobbles E over the St Lawrence Valley as energy feeds into its W side, there is a better chance of broad cyclonic flow that will kick a cold front E through NC Sat night or early Sun, bringing dry weather and colder air for NC as an Arctic surface high builds across the north-central and Northeast/Mid Atlantic states. But the ECMWF stalls the front closer to NC, with low centers tracking along it drawing abundant moisture and precip back over a wedged-in central NC, while the GFS stays dry. Will keep the forecast pop-free for now, but again, predictability is low. Thicknesses are projected to drop to around 25 m below normal for Sun and over 50 m below normal Mon, favoring fair skies and chilly temps. -GIH

Euro shows ice to the south of the snow zone. One frame has ice all the way down to Orangeburg, over to Myrtle Beach, and then up to Wilmington. And I'm sure many upcoming model changes...

Euro snow depth at day 10 (has snow falling starting this upcoming Sunday):

Really good to have the euro on board. Like I said before, it would be funny if our two big storms of the winter came in December and March (with very little in between).

This is from Tropical Tidbits (not a lot storm detail), but it does look promising:

Your right, we've lost many threats ~ day 7. It would be great if the models keep/start showing a storm the next two days.