FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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But we can enjoy it while it last. I said this before, for the amount of snow we actually get each year it's amazing how many times we're at least in the game to get a significant storm. So basically you're right, we get sucked in a lot and have a lot of heartbreak.
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The DGEX would be historic as it's depicted. As stated in the other thread even at hour 192 it looks to still be at it's height (at least over central/eastern NC). Now back to reality, we could still have some enhancement to whatever storm we get. Water temps off the coast are still above normal and could add to a storms development; in which the models may not calculate correctly. So the 6z GFS could still be a good setup.
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My 4000th post. Bummer of a day. Things not looking good for the SE in the short term and long term. La nina looks to be in control and providing the typical pattern that keeps the cold to the west. Of course I have hope for the rest of winter, fab February has saved us the last few years, but right now there's no excitement.
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It would be wonderful to have every model run show a great winter storm. As other have said, at this time range all you want is a storm signal. Even if this storm does (or doesn't) occur, can you imagine how many more model solutions will present themselves in the coming days.
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But it gets blocked (...get it?):
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We need the PNA to go positive. Whatever cold air we (NA) have will continue to just dump to our west. I know the EPO can do wonders but its seems a positive PNA is a primary indice for the SE.
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Yep, that GL low seems to be the killer. Maybe that can turn in our favor in future runs. (also) The thing that can be upsetting is the day 16 of these run now takes us into mid January. We in the SE are now starting to lose prime winter storm time.
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This thread should be hot today after the latest run of the GFS. Everything stays to the west. I guess you could say both the 0z para and 6z GFS look a little interesting at day 16; but hasn't day 16 always looked interesting.
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I'll have to say it's hard to get excited about future prospects with the current warm temps we're getting. Should be close to 70 at RDU tomorrow. I guess the only thing to do is enjoy it.
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I liked the ice we received last March. But not that horrible storm we received in 2002: http://www4.ncsu.edu/~nwsfo/storage/cases/20021204/
