FallsLake

We haven't heard from him since the hurricanes. I think he's on another site.

I like RAH's afternoon discussion: Sat-Mon: A strengthening mid-upper trough/low will cross the S Plains, Gulf States, and Southeast during this period. Models are fairly uniform in showing some polar stream interaction such that the system should slow and deepen as it crosses the Southeast. This will allow for cyclogenesis over the NW Gulf (where so many of our wintertime storms are born) and foster further intensification as it crosses the Gulf Coast / N FL and off the Southeast coast by Sun night or Mon. The ECMWF remains significantly slower than the GFS (by 6-12 hrs) and takes a farther-north path, such that it is generally a bit warmer but with greater QPF as its slower movement allows for greater deepening near the coast with a long-lived deformation back extending well inland through Mon. While confidence is rising that we`ll get a decent precip event and that a single dominant low is the most likely pattern of cyclogenesis, there is still too much model spread for much specificity. This model spread is not surprising considering the mid level feature in question is still currently well out over the Pacific. Will maintain high chance to likely pops, higher across the S and SE, starting early Sat but peaking Sun. Climatology for immature (still-developing) Miller A patterns supports broad corridors of mixed precip type, and the deterministic forecast will indicate this. It`s far too early to speculate about amounts of wintry precip, but we could be looking at a few inches of liquid (or liquid equivalent) before all is said and done. Highs each day will generally range from the upper 30s to mid 40s NW to SE, with nightly lows in the 30s. -GIH

You're sitting pretty right now, most model solutions give you a nice event.

Stronger CAD signal then the 0z at the same time.

This run of the FV3-GFS sucked from the standpoint that all it can do now is show a worse solution in future runs. Don't get me wrong, I love seeing 2 feet forecasted for my location, but it's all downhill from this point (or maybe downhill, uphill, ….).

Kind of pissed. I only get 20" while folks west of me get 29.

I hate how the model just stops updating. And then also misses hours. I guess that will be fixed once it takes over.

Lol it just scoots right out to sea. Still some decent wintery precip totals for southern parts of SW/central NC and NW SC.

Yeah at 120 its slightly SE of the 6z run

With that 2000 storm there were some high rates as well. I'm with you, for impact is was huge.

That was in November. Most mets stated the fact that this was a problem. RAH even said that it was a classic winter setup for the upper SE, but most would just get rain because of the time of year. Not saying this storm will produce but it's not mid November any more.

The strength of the CAD / supporting high is crucial. Hopefully there is more transition zones. When this occurs our area does well with wintery precip. If there is a sharp snow/rain line somebody in our area (to Charlotte to the SC up state) is going to be unhappy. I still think the December 2009 storm is a possibility. Miller A with good snow totals in the western piedmont but a messy snow to rain event for RDU.

If a strong CAD is in the cards for this storm, the models will progressively show a colder solution as we get closer. **usually

That was a great run! Looks to be primarily snow for RDU for almost the entire event. Surface temps look good as well.

And it's still snowing across a good portion of NC at that time. The low off the coast stalls. Not sure I buy this but it does prove we have many more days of varying solutions.

Just got a chance to look at the models. One thing that's encouraging is the initial cold air that's in place. Of course we need the strong high to the north and a good storm track, but from my experience having nice cold air in place before a storm is crucial in these parts.

You would assume or hope it's better than the old GFS. Not because of how this storm is modeled but because it's supposed to take over soon.

I thought a gulf of Alaska low was good. It helps establish a western ridge.

Hey guys here's some web maps my group put out over the weekend. Any GIS folks out there, please tell me of other map services if known. Look under Florence Support Maps and Apps: https://ncdot.maps.arcgis.com/home/index.html

I would love to see that track. It loops it in a complete circle whereas on day 10 it's back on the SC coast. With cool air pushing southward it would then turn into a nor'easter and head up the coast. That would be some fun tracking..

So there was a slight shift north on some of the 6z model runs. One (FV3-GFS) now has the 6" QPF line into south Wake County. Point is I don't think there will be a radical move north, but a couple more small shift north can put many big urban areas back under the flooding threat. Something to monitor.

It then pushes inland moving NW past Greenville and over the mountains past NE Tenn. Mountains would get good rains with this path.

Out to 108 and the 18z FV3-GFS is following the euro. Looks to be right off the coast at Charleston after a near hit at Wilmington.

The HWRF would swamp much of NC with very heavy precip rates. The storm comes in near Wilmington and then slowly moves east/NE with heavy rain around the center and then to the north.

Rain totals are not bad (compared to other model runs) for inland areas. 6z GFS at hr 174: