FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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The 6z GFS bumped south enough to take many in the MA out of the game. Just goes to say we have some more model watching to do.
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Well the 6z GFS just came in more south. It now puts the NW NC folks into south/central VA into good snows. RDU is still mostly rain but one more shift and we would be back to something significant. The 6z ICON is similar to the CMC. Good snows for mostly south /central VA, but a big ice storm for the upstate of SC to Charlotte to Raleigh.
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So if the storm ends up more north as depicted on the GFS and even the euro(from today's run), I think the question is; do we develop more CAD and consequently more southward expansion of ice. It will be interesting to see the next model runs...Tomorrow we'll start getting into the NAM range. Historically it has done well with CAD setups, but I'm not sure if it's dependable right now.
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18z GFS looks like a western foothills to NW Piedmont ice storm. Good snows from extreme NW NC up into VA to the MA.
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Maybe our best hope for wintery precip is a miller B with a strong CAD.
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18z NAM continues to show colder dew points compared to the GFS. At hour 84 has teens over most of SC; whereas the GFS has mostly 20s.
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RAH is delaying the Long Term discussion.
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We've been lucky the last few storms that were initially modeled with this much freezing rain; to have it turn out to be mostly sleet.
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12z euro for 3am on the 13th:
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Hard to use but here you go: https://weather.us/model-charts/euro/2019010812/north-carolina/acc-total-precipitation/20190114-0000z.html That would be a nice snow storm for NW NC folks into VA. It would be a major ice storm for the "Crescent cities of NC" (Charlotte to Triad to Triangle).
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You, CR, and others are due for a big storm.
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I've done well for the last three years, but I seem to always be right near the line. I would love to see that line push down into Johnson county for at least one storm.
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Looking at the crappy Tropical Tidbits maps, the euro looks to have a slight stronger CAD signal at hr 96. Low is maybe a little south (..hard time to ascertain from the maps).
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Looks slightly warmer as well -->The high to the north is slightly weaker.
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Looking at the latest models you would think late Saturday night. RAH has snow starting in our area ~1pm on Saturday: Saturday A chance of snow after 1pm. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. Saturday Night Snow likely. Cloudy, with a low around 33. Chance of precipitation is 60%. Sunday A chance of rain and snow. Cloudy, with a high near 39. Chance of precipitation is 40%. What's interesting is they're focused on more snow being the predominant type. This could be a case where meteorology trumps models more than normal.
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The GFS(s) are slightly warmer but still have low dewpoints; whereas at hour 84 RDU has a dewpoint of 11 on the NAM and 13 on the GFS.
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I really like the initial cold air that's in place before the storm. 12z NAM dew points:
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Are you sure you want to reel this in (12z CMC):
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It's time. Do it. We wont blame you on the outcome.
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Going off what RAH said, the 6z GEFS was even better than the 0z (which RAH was refereeing to). Low slight more south with a better high configuration to the north: 6z:
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No its fine, and you're right they're bullish. Might be time for a dedicated thread..... but I know nobody wants to jinx it.
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...we'll have to use the RGEM in its place.
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lol...and the GFS says round two comes at day 9:
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We still have some model wars: The euro, Ukie, icon, and now the GFS have a more suppressed look; which gives many more folks (like me ha ha) a chance of wintery precip. The CMC and the FV3 are stronger and farther north with the low; which gives DC a big hit. NW NC & S. VA would still get a decent hit of ice. Edit: added Ukie
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As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain.
