FallsLake

FV3-GFS continues to show a NE GA, Up State SC, central/western NC, and northward snow threat for next weekend. From RAH: The models are then in good agreement that the aforementioned mid- upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, with a reloading of the longwave trough from cntl Canada to the middle Atlantic states through the weekend. At the same time, a srn stream one is forecast to migrate across the srn US. Though uncertainty with respect to the timing, amplitude, and possible phasing of those features is high, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to present precipitation type concerns across cntl and especially wrn NC by Sat- Sat night.

Next week we may see lows in the mid 30s. That could give some folks a light frost.....

If things go like planned, this year will be a reversal of last; whereas we have a back load winter. Remember last February heat wave.

That's some cold air!! Has -40F temps entering the northern plains.

Happy New Years everybody! Lets hope we can score two or three good winter storms for most on the board.

Don't give up yet. As long as we flip to a favorable pattern by the end of January, we have a (good) chance. There were a few folks that predicted a back-loaded winter. Lets see if they end up being correct. **Wouldn't it be terrible if we didn't flip to a cold pattern and ended up with a repeat of last February.

Well the 12z GFS went (more) north with the 8-9 system, but the Canadian came through to give us some fantasy snow:

It's possible. The models have been terrible lately. Not sure if we should still put equal weight towards the GFS, and put more towards the FV3-GFS.

If the 6z Fv3-GFS is correct we may actually see some below freezing temps by mid-month.

Usually with a negative NAO both western Europe and eastern NA can get cold and stormy. But, I've seen many times where Europe is cold and we never benefit.

All we can do at this point is hope the change starts occurring soon. Then we could feel the affects by mid month. The indices do look a little better today: PNA - Moderately positive moves towards neutral in the short range then back to moderately positive (good) NAO - Goes strongly negative in the short range, but goes neutral in the LR (with a large spread of positive & negative runs) AO - Looks to now go negative, with many runs strongly negative. This is a big change from yesterday (good) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml From everything I've read (for where we're at right now), we need the AO to go negative to get NA cold and into a pattern that favors an eastern trough / western ridge.

If the Fv3 GFS is correct most of us, outside the mountains, wont see freezing temps until ~mid January. Of course the Canadian, with its cold bias, says just wait until late next week.

Indices look ok to good today: PNA - Goes strongly positive in the medium range and stays positive in the LR (good/great) AO - Goes neutral and then averages neutral in the LR (but has some wide spread of positive and negative runs (not sure) NAO - Stays neutral in the medium range but then averages negative in the LR (maybe good) https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

The FV3 GFS is showing some potential at and after News Years. The LR models keep flipping around (more than normal) during that period, which could mean they're having issues seeing the (possible) pattern change.

If all that cold verifies for January (meaning some good blocking), there'll be some suppressed storm tracks.

It seems that when the p-type was snow and it was below freezing (making close to 10:1) it was actually very close. Some of those huge outputs (over 2" in the piedmont) was more tied to the higher QPF that was originally being forecasted.

You live in a good "zone". I remember you did well last year in that early January storm; whereas I got about an inch. Then we both did well in the late January storm. Folks south and east of Raleigh have missed out the last few years. I feel (in my bones) that's going to change this year; a coastal plain blizzard is in order.

It is amazing how that line sets up. I've been really lucky the last few years where I've been just north and west enough to get in on the good snow totals. In past years I've noticed that things even out somewhat with those "eastern storms" -- Fayetteville NE to Rock Mount. With those storms eastern parts of the Triangle do very well. I've seen it snowing hard just east of Wake Forest but nothing at my house. I think we're due for another one of those storms. And as other have said, I would gladly give up snow to see you guys score.

Still very light snow at my location. This should be it. Now the question is how much melting this afternoon. Then how bad will the roads get tonight with the refreeze. I think tomorrow morning may be the worse driving conditions of the event. Folks will see what looks like clear pavement but actually slide on ice. Get ready for lots of reports of wreaks. Edit: sorry I thought I was in the observation thread.

Man after all the snow we're getting this storm is not over (ICE): As this occurs, the forecast low level partial thicknesses in the 1295 to 1305m range indicate more icing can be expected SE of the heavy snow zone in the NW add N Piedmont. That would place areas from portions of Stanly and southern Davidson ENE in an arc through portions of Randolph, northern Moore, Lee, Chatham, Wake, Durham, Franklin, Vance, Granville, and Warren at risk for 0.25+ of icing later this morning into the afternoon. Surface wet bulbs support the area from near Troy and Asheboro to NW of Sanford to near RDU and Henderson in the 32 or below through the event. This will have to be watched closely as Raleigh will be right on the 31-32 line with 33 degrees just 10-20 miles east and south.

HRRR looks good for our area. 2z is out to be 12 and there's plus 6" totals through the Triangle. And it's still snowing.

^^and that's why we see jumps every few hour. As the models change their depictions the values are then pasted on to your respective grids.

Hey I really appreciate it! For others, here's the versions that were released: V1.0 - V2.0 The first version of the NBM was released January 6, 2016 in CONUS AWIPS 16.1.1, after Congress mandated that the NWS develop a blended model approach following Hurricane Sandy in 2012. This first version used 3 models (GFS, GEFS mean, CMCE mean) and covered temperature, wind, and sky cover over the CONUS (Continental United States) region two times a day. Version 2, released November 15, 2016 in CONUS and OCONUS (outside-CONUS) AWIPS 16.2.2, added coverage over Alaska, Hawaii, and Puerto Rico. V3.0 Version 3.0, released July 27th, 2017 (AWIPS 17.3.1) incorporated additional global and mesoscale models for the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains along with running hourly and providing 1-36h forecasts. Several new weather elements were added to this version such as calibrated Probability of Precipitation (6-hour) and QPF, ceiling height and visibility, and weather, snow, and ice forecasts to name a few. An exhaustive lists of weather elements added to V3.0 can be found in NWS SCN 17-59. V3.1 NBM V3.1, which is planned to be implemented October 3, 2018 (AWIPS 18.1.1) will continue to incorporate additional global models (i.e.., ECMWF (deterministic and ensemble)) and mesoscale models (i.e., HRRR-Extended (1-36h guidance)) into its suite of model guidance to cover the CONUS, OCONUS, and Oceanic domains. This upgrade will enable the NBM to fill existing product gaps requested by the Aviation, Fire Weather, Water Resources, and Marine NWS Service Program Offices. To date, NBM data has been packaged in GRIB2 and only provided forecasts at gridpoints. NBM V3.1 will introduce a new text product (similar to MOS-station bulletins) that will provide NBM forecasts at stations. The data in these bulletins are the NBM’s nearest grid point forecast to the corresponding station. We will be generating four individual NBM text bulletin products every hour, each covering different forecast horizons. For a complete discussion concerning these messages along with an exhaustive listing weather elements that will be added to NBM V3.1 and their dissemination times please see the following NBM V3.1 SCN.

Earlier today my NWS grid forecast was set at 5-9" for Sunday (daytime period). It was reduced to 3-5" after lunch time. Now it's been bumped back up to 3-7". Again, I'm wondering what models they're using to create these output. Anybody know?

Looking at the 12z GFS. The crazy/fantasy snow map has >10" in Wake County before the change over occurs. Even if that's half that value, we could still see some nice (actual 5-10) amounts through out the county.