FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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Actually I would consider that a win. Bring it!
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Maybe, that would match up with the NWS's worse case situation; which it looks like the models are leaning towards (at this time). But, the last few storms we've tracked have been a little warmer then advertised at go live. Maybe this is different, I would like to see the models come in a little colder; whereas the snow line stays down in Harnett and Johnson county the whole event.
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We're going to be on the line for some type of transition. Hopefully that snow line stays south and east as long as it can. But agreeing with your point, we know our area well; I would think we get a good initial thumping of snow and then it goes to ice. **and then rain for some and then back to a little wintery precip before it ends.
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Better run for the RDU folks. At hr 54 we're actually showing a little less snow (on the fantasy snow maps) then the 6z run, but more of what falls is snow.
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Finally at hr 48 it's snow at RDU! The line for snow/ice/rain down towards Fayetteville and up towards Rock Mount.
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It's (now) at least a major ice storm for many (including Triangle folks).
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Just the normal crap we have endure tracking winter storms for our area....lol I mean my area (...you're in Europe!). You need to move back to fully feel the pain again.
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RGEM looks great. Looks like it confines the snow to NC northward, It has more north/south p-type cutoff zones allowing places farther east (like Rocky Mount) to get some initial snow. It only goes out to hour 54, but at that time it looks like good snowfall everywhere north from just north of Charlotte to south Wake to Rocky Mount. Below that line is a sleet fest.
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The 6z GFS has nothing past the VA/NC boarder. Big drop in total precip and coverage. I was about to post the snow map but I'm having issues uploading.
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Definitely weaker. Looks to scoot that low faster out to sea.
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For RDU folks, the 6z NAM was an improvement (maybe). The 0z had almost all of Wake in the 2" range (kuchera). You had to get into Chatham and northern Durham to see anything approaching 5". The 6z NAM pushes the 5-6" snows into northern Wake over into all of Durham. Funny but a little less in south central Chatham. Looks a little more south to north with the ranges compared to the 0z with its west to east cutoff zones. Dealing with freezing rain, looks like warning criteria ice for everybody; but it is less (lots of .5" totals compared to last run with over .80"). Also there was a shift east and south of the freezing rain. Folks in Johnson and Harnett counties would get warning criteria amounts.
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Anything greater that .5" can get real bad. Again it only take .25" to warrant a Winter Storm criteria.
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Yeah, its got .82" of freezing rain at RDU.
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He's talking about car tops not the ground.
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Think we'll have any issues with ice? NAM at face values would say we have a decent ice event.
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Hey CR, Look at how the 850 temps are trying to move back SW from Canada. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/?model=ecmwf&region=us&pkg=T850&runtime=2018120612&fh=96 Click 4x back for "Prev. Run" A few move movements back and we have a much better cold air feed.
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I believe the FV3 just gave me my highest fantasy snow totals for this event. I had another run a few days back that gave me 20"; this gives me 24". Now if I can just get 8" I'll be real happy...
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I disagree with the last one. We are aware of the forecast but we still go into Denial.
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The FV3-GFS... and heck the rest of the op models as well.
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We need to pray this model is correct. .....we need to see the NAM come back on board.
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Out to 96 and it would barely stay all snow at RDU; with the back side band coming through.
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I sure hope so. (we've said this way too many times but) This next run is huge.
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For Charlotte and RDU folks, it was a shift south.
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I'll take the Canadian as well; especially with that back end snow.
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At 66 it looks like CAD is a little more pronounce.
