FallsLake

Lol...I'm not giving up hope but we really needed todays models to trend better. Maybe (just maybe) we get lucky with the Mondays event.

I was told this is where the party is....

It's time. Do it. We wont blame you on the outcome.

Going off what RAH said, the 6z GEFS was even better than the 0z (which RAH was refereeing to). Low slight more south with a better high configuration to the north: 6z:

No its fine, and you're right they're bullish. Might be time for a dedicated thread..... but I know nobody wants to jinx it.

...we'll have to use the RGEM in its place.

lol...and the GFS says round two comes at day 9:

We still have some model wars: The euro, Ukie, icon, and now the GFS have a more suppressed look; which gives many more folks (like me ha ha) a chance of wintery precip. The CMC and the FV3 are stronger and farther north with the low; which gives DC a big hit. NW NC & S. VA would still get a decent hit of ice. Edit: added Ukie

As long as we can keep that feed of cold air down from the north (in CAD), we should be fine. Cut that source off and we end up rain.

With cold air already in place, I think CAD will come in a little stronger in upcoming runs and ice may be the bigger story; especially for folks in S. NC into the upstate / NE Ga.

True, and to be fair it has been running too cold on its surface temps.

From RAH: Saturday and Sunday: The weather system that will impact central NC this weekend will develop off the Rockies on Friday as a shortwave in the broadening trough aloft swings through TX and eastward toward the Southeast US Friday night into Saturday. In response to the shortwave aloft, a surface low will develop over the northern Gulf Coast on Saturday. Meanwhile, the surface high will continue ridging southwestward into the western part of NC as a CAD wedge through the weekend. The evolution, track and timing of the low as it progresses eastward and/or northeastward through the weekend will determine the weather and associated impacts for the Carolinas Saturday and Sunday. Will hold off on specifics for now given the uncertainty and the large impacts small changes would have on the forecast. However, given the cold air in place, particularly over the NC Piedmont, generally expect rain and/or a rain/snow mix over the weekend. The Coastal Plain and Sandhills should largely be all rain, but that could change.

Does anybody have a euro snow map? If it's similar to last run, then I think nothing has changed (..model wars).

Ice is confined to the western areas of NC/VA; with lesser amounts (spots up to .25-.50") compared to the CMC.

Yep 2002 looks close to what the Canadian is showing:

^^The ICON would be similar with maybe lesser amounts of ice in the NW because of more snow.

Oh this wouldn't be that bad...

Canadian is very close to the same solution. But wake County would be the dividing line of significant ice.

Definitely not a good solution; but one of many real possibilities. Does have some snow/ice in the far western areas before it pushes everything to rain.

RDU looks to never get above freezing....ICE

12z NAM shows highs on Thursday in the 30s (outside mountains) for many of us. Dew points in the single digits in south VA to near 20 in NE Ga.

If we can get a good low track / high location, we should be good for surface temps. The initial cold front coming through this week is cold. GFS(s) have low teens (dew points) for many of us. If we can keep that from being scored out, we may have something with this storm.

I had a link at one point but even then it was like looking at the euro on Tropical Tidbits.

For right now, this is good enough for me: While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream amplification is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl Appalachians Fri-Sun. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, with some interaction/phasing possible invof the srn middle Atlantic coast over the weekend. While the complexity of the flow will yield uncertainty regarding forecast details for the next several days, the overall pattern is one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with sufficient cold air in place to support snow across parts of the middle Atlantic states, including probably the NC Piedmont, by Sat-Sat night.

For a miller B, we just don't want the low to get higher then Tennessee; then transfer SE to the South Carolina coast. We of course need a strong CAD to force this situation.