FallsLake

RAH is keeping an eye on possibly a little bit of ice for NW and north portions of NC. Nothing that would cause any issues but it's all we got: SHORT TERM /SUNDAY AND SUNDAY NIGHT/... As of 228 AM Saturday... Rain and falling temperatures again Sunday. CAD appears that it will linger into Sunday. It will get reinforced as a 1025+ mb high is forecast to extend south into our Piedmont damming region (even into northeast GA) Sunday. The high is progressive to the north, cutting off our supply of cold and dry air Sunday afternoon from the north. However, the next southern branch wave will be moving in late Sunday morning through the afternoon, with presumably another cold rain. This presumption is confirmed by the forecast partial thicknesses that suggest the cold rain as well. However, the coldest ensemble runs of the models suggest that the surface wet bulb temperatures will be as low as 30 in the Triad to Roxboro Sunday afternoon into the evening. There may be some light icing on elevated surfaces (above the highway system) if this verifies. Otherwise. evaporative cooling of the 20s (dry) dew points in the NW and N Piedmont should again lead to falling temperatures in the damming region again Sunday as the rain falls. Highs 40 NW to some 50s SE, but falling into the lower 30s west and north and near 40 SE by late Sunday with the rain. POP near 100 percent, and QPF storm totals for round 2 in the 0.5 to 0.75 range ending Sunday night. &&

The FV3 shows many of us starting (switching briefly) as some kind of wintery precip before the rain takes over. But yeah, the snow/sleet amounts are over the top. This models still has some details to work out.

The 12z FV3 did come in a little colder for next weeks potential event. Would be significant ice for our region. But, I agree it hasn't done well lately. Freezing rain totals:

Hey what's going on up there in Roxboro? I've dropped to 40 with heavy rain. Unknown Precip 36°F

Yeah I suppose to get to 63 but never got above 46 at the house. Sitting at 43 now with 30s just to my north.

CAD is one thing we can count on to over perform.

I bet the 12z euro helped them mention the possibility.

The euro is also in the same camp. Would be nice to see them come in colder at 12z.

Yep that would correlate with the above FV3 map. The GFS also has a lighter event for this upcoming Sunday:

6z GFS and GFS/FV3 still have the day 7/8 storm. GFS looks like more of a NC storm whereas the FV3 would be a big storm for many on our board:

Problem is we're running out of time. This is the end game. Maybe have three weeks left to get a decent storm. Time to throw in the chips....

Yep, more ice would fall with the second system. Lots could go wrong with this setup, but I'm glad to see the potential. We're getting to the end of the season and need to see something materialize very soon. This is at hour 240 (with ice still occurring):

Yeah, we have one more opportunity for things to swing better (+PNA) by the end of the month. But I'm with you, the odds are not good at this point.

Only 15 days out.......:

We just keep getting the lows to cut to the NW. Not our year. Sad thing, there has been some really cold air to our north. We just couldn't get things to line up right. As others have said, usually we have to thread the needle to get a storm. I swear it seems like a couple weeks back we were threading the needle to not get a storm.

I like this thread, but hate when it first pops up each year. Usually means winter is over....

It's not looking good, but I think we will get one more shot by the end of this month. Indices for AO and NAO look like they could go negative in the LR (..but PNA looks to stay negative). Maybe -EPO will balance that some. I got lucky with the big snow in December, but it's been a huge disappointment afterwards.

We knew it was coming. There was no support from other models, and it had to fall sometime. Of course a lot of us were hoping it would pull a miracle. It was fun tracking this long shot for the last two days.

Yep. Other models are trending towards it but not enough. I think central VA up through the MA have a decent shot. Of course I'm still rooting for the FV3....

There's been storms where its had to play catch up in the past, but it (and other models) should give us pause in getting excited right now. Again, lets see what the 12z runs say.

Many years back my Dad was stationed there. From his stories, you will see snow and cold.

Bummer, I'm in the snow hole and only get 12"..... It did lead the way for the December storm. I would really like to see more model agreement. GFS is trying but still not there. Lets see what the 12z runs bring.

6z GFS backed off slightly but still has the idea. FV3 still shows a significant storm. Here's RAH: As the high moves offshore it will move into a better position for in-situ damming and moisture will approach from the west as a disorganized wave of low pressure moves in. Isentropic lift increases significantly after 00z Monday as the first real chances for more significant precipitation in the long term begin and increased frontogenesis occurs along our northern periphery. Rain chances will remain through the end of the period and everything is expected to be liquid at least through 00z Wednesday but many details will need to be ironed out regarding this system over the next week.

Yeah it's stepping towards the FV3; which is showing a significant winter storm at the same period (day 7) then something else a couple days afterwards. I sill refuse to get drawn in; but if we can get more model support and get this to day 5, maybe....

Well the 12z FV3 has the Tuesday storm again. Minor to significant ice event across the Piedmont sections of NC, VA, and north parts of the up state. That's only 7 days out. In years past, we would start getting excited about the possibility. Honestly I expect the model to lose it at 18z. Plus there isn't other model agreement as well.