FallsLake

Tropical Tidbits is my favorite: https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models Select Global models to see the FV3-GFS

Too bad RDU folks can't take the FV3 to the bank. Foot+ snows next weekend, followed by a small mixed precip system a few days later, then a major sleet fest at day 14. That would personally push this winter to an A.

18z 3K NAM does show light spotty freezing rain/drizzle over NE Ga, Up state, into west and central NC. A couple of things that can make this worse than normal; we've had some really cold temps (surface/pavement temps are cold) and it would be coming early in the morning (no sun and then rush hour).

Great game! I would love to see Brady win one more.

A storm like this may not be modeled correctly right up to go time.

They switched to a point of the FV3 is now showing a nice storm and the GFS not. But the FV3 still had the storm signal at 0z. This would be nice for the folks down east in SC and NC.

As others have stated, we're not going to get a good model read on the sensible weather past 7 days. Indices are good for something to occur for the next two weeks. That's all we have at this point. I wouldn't be surprised to see another huge storm at 12z for the day 9/10(or 11...) period just to have it disappear at 18z (or vise versa). PNA - Stays positive until the LR, then it goes neutral; which others have stated could signify a whole continental trough. NAO - Looks to average negative AO - Looks to go and stay strongly negative https://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

And in a non-storm situation (...March 1980 had temps fall into the single digits during the day). I know there has been sunny days with highs in the teens, but single digits I don't know.

Just read RAH discussion. As of last night they are siding with the euro’s more north track. But they did mention the GFS and of course this discussion was before the 6z came out. So hopfully the euro corrects south today.

Did other models show it? Asking because. I’m in Boone visiting family and haven’t been able to check model runs to well on my phone.

Problem with the 6z GFS is it doesn’t have support from other models and the event is close at 6/7 days out. Other models would need to trend quickly today for this to be “real” or I would sucspect the 12z GFS is going to go back north.

I keep saying this, but you guys are due. I actually think this is the perfect "forecasted" pattern to give coastal areas snow. Strong blocking with strong highs that can suppress the storm track way south. Then when something does pop, you guys snow. **also if it gets cold enough, it would be cool to see bay effect snow again.

You wouldn't have to worry about ratios.

Has support from the EPS and now the 18z NAM. Still not excited, but keeping an eye on the (slim) possibility.

We don't know what's going to happen:

That was a good video. Everybody that wants to jump should see this first.

You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others:

If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative). Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for...

Some mets have discussed this in days past, but most have backed off. 6Z FV3 is really the only model showing anything (halfway) significant. Maybe something starts to show on more models in coming days but right now I wouldn't count on it. **this is where our friends on the other side of the mountains can actually score a small event. Our mountains are great for CAD but (in this case) usually slow the cold air down too much to catch moisture.

I think they're coming. We just haven't had deep enough troughs to get them going yet.

Yeah, the upstate of SC up to your location have had bad luck the last couple of years. There's been numerous storms where you're suppose to get a big storm and it doesn't pan out. That's probably worse then the folks farther east that were never in the game to get anything.

I have no complaints, but there are folks in SE NC, SC ,and Ga that are in a long snow drought (maybe half the board??). I would love to see at least one deep south and coastal snow storm; even if I got shutout. It seems like its been ages since the last one.

Take a look at the latest FV3. But you might be a little too far north...

If we get the cold that's advertised, folks in south Ga, east SC, and coastal NC could get a huge storm. Many to the west may stay cold/dry (for a specific storm).

Indices continue to look good: PNA - Briefly gets to neutral in the short term but goes back positive into the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR (this may help suppress our storm track) AO - Man it almost tanks off the charts (that's going to drive some cold air southward) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml