FallsLake

Nothing looks good on the models for a widespread SE winter storm. Yeah, maybe some CAD areas score a little ice but nothing big is showing right now. Only positive thing, is it's looking like we don't torch like we did last year. The GFS from a couple of days back showed this possibility.

Most definitely. I'm almost expecting to see the 7/8 day disappear and another day 10/11 show up; keeping us hooked. But at least we have a little bit of hope.

Lol..lets hope. I am keeping an eye on the day 7/8 time period. Maybe we can get something wintery.

Well that's it, Punxsutawney Phil just said it's going to be an early spring.

Just dropped to 26 at the house. That's colder then expected. Might be 6/7 days (..and that's hoping) before I see freezing again.

The 6z GFS and FV3 both show some ice/snow for central NC northwards on days 7/8. At this point I wouldn't get excited. We still need more model agreement, get closer to the event, and wrap out heads around the idea of getting a storm where it rains first then changes over to wintery precip; which we know is difficult.

If it's right spring is here. Doesn't get bellow freezing in the SE through mid month, and it wouldn't look good afterwards. FV3 is better. It still has the day 8/9 storm. Lets hope it is right.

As olaf posted above there is a fantasy winter storm at day 10. But we've been burned so much this year with day 10 storms nobody is taking it seriously. Maybe if it's still showing Saturday and Sunday we might start beating the drum; but even then only if other models support it.

Hour 432 on the CFS is looking good :

I think you can add the mountains into the factor. 10+ degrees colder on the west side. As stated before, the mountain can help us with CAD or hurt us by impeding cold dense air over the mountains.

The FV3 shows chances of wintery precip at and past day 10. But we've seen that story many times already...

Definitely not an expert on solar cycles and climate, but something I read a few years back was that winters tended to be colder/snowier (more blocking) right at and after a solar minimum. The years leading up to the minimum were not good. Honestly I can't remember where I read this but it showed a chart of the years and it matched up nicely to the theory. So we are still heading towards minimum (that would indicate less blocking --> warmer/less snowy winters). So maybe next year we do.

For central NC, the 12z 3K NAM backed off the snow chances. We can still hope, but.....

Here you go:

Models are coming in a little better this morning, particularly for north central NC into S.VA. Here is the 6z FV3 (has support from old GFS and 3K NAM):

Again, it looks convective; whereas there could be folks that can get surprise accumulations but somebody 10 miles from them get nothing. **just like summertime

No expectations......nothing to lose.

If we end up with not one flake of snow from this, I wouldn't be surprised or upset (so very low expectations). But this is a situation that can produce a surprise event. Just a little more development with .1-.2 more qpf could make this eventful. We're just going to have to wait to see how the precip develops as it crosses the mountains.

It did increase snow accumulations for our area. Not a lot (trace-half inch maybe), but it's now showing some coverage for the northern Triangle - northeastward. Also the Fv3 continues to be bullish with 1-2" of actual accumulations from RDU westward:

It almost looks convective like summer time precip maps. There could be a lot of "haves and have nots".

12z NAM continues to show these streaks of accumulating snow with areas in between with very little. I personally would love the 12z NAM; it gives a small area from south Durham north eastward to Warrant county 3-4". **it's small enough that it could end up 30 miles to the east or west; if it materialized.

RAH Hazardous Weather Outlook: Hazardous Weather Outlook National Weather Service Raleigh NC 411 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 NCZ007>010-021>026-038>041-073>076-280915- Person-Granville-Vance-Warren-Forsyth-Guilford-Alamance-Orange- Durham-Franklin-Davidson-Randolph-Chatham-Wake-Stanly-Montgomery- Moore-Lee- 411 AM EST Sun Jan 27 2019 This Hazardous Weather Outlook is for central North Carolina. .DAY ONE...Today and tonight. Hazardous weather is not expected at this time. .DAYS TWO THROUGH SEVEN...Monday through Saturday. Rain showers on Tuesday afternoon may change to snow showers before ending during the early evening. A light dusting of snow may occur over portions of the Piedmont, mainly along and north of the Interstate 40/85 corridor. Very cold air will arrive Wednesday morning through Thursday. Lows Wednesday and Thursday should be in the teens, with wind chill values 5 to 10 above. .SPOTTER INFORMATION STATEMENT... Spotter activation is not expected at this time. $$

From RAH: The next chance of precipitation will arrive on Tuesday, as the strong Arctic vortex diving south out of Canada absorbs/merges with a lead shortwave trough moving into the southern/central Appalachians. Associated synoptic scale height falls on the order of 60 to 90 meter, in tandem with the attendant Arctic cold front will support an area/band of showers moving east through the area Tuesday afternoon. Models still show the potential that the band of rain showers could briefly change over to snow showers before the moisture departs Tuesday evening/night as colder air pours into the region. This classic cold air chasing the moisture scenario rarely results in significant/warning criteria snow fall for central NC. Will continue to closely monitor. With liquid equivalent of one to two tenths and temps falling quickly into the 20s Tuesday night, the greatest threat/concern could end up being the development of black ice from the flash freezing of moisture on roads, sidewalks and elevated surfaces. Lows Tuesday night ranging from near 20 north to mid 20s south.

You really want to break areas into zones with similar weather. One big reason the Tennessee Valley folks broke away from the SE was because of the different weather mechanisms that cause weather on this side of the mountains. CAD is a major component to most our winter storms; but not for the folks west of the mountains. On the other hand you can get good snow in Tennessee with arctic frontal passages, but not too much for us. So in short, You could create a CAD sub-forum (not Carolinas); but the biggest obstacle is the fact that most major population areas fall in the CAD zone. **so most folks would just post there anyways..