FallsLake

Pouring the snow right now. Close to an inch on the ground. In Boone right now visiting family

I keep saying this, but you guys are due. I actually think this is the perfect "forecasted" pattern to give coastal areas snow. Strong blocking with strong highs that can suppress the storm track way south. Then when something does pop, you guys snow. **also if it gets cold enough, it would be cool to see bay effect snow again.

You wouldn't have to worry about ratios.

Has support from the EPS and now the 18z NAM. Still not excited, but keeping an eye on the (slim) possibility.

We don't know what's going to happen:

That was a good video. Everybody that wants to jump should see this first.

You can see the storm track NW of our location (story of the past few weeks). Hopefully with this pattern change the models are having difficulties; especially the American models because of all the talk of low maintenance (..budget impasse). Just looking out 10 days, the euro does look good. Maybe it's the model that will lead all the others:

If I remember some of the discussion on the above indices, a -PNA is not bad if we have the AO, NAO and specifically the EPO on our side (all negative). Usually when I see a -PNA I think we're done for...

Some mets have discussed this in days past, but most have backed off. 6Z FV3 is really the only model showing anything (halfway) significant. Maybe something starts to show on more models in coming days but right now I wouldn't count on it. **this is where our friends on the other side of the mountains can actually score a small event. Our mountains are great for CAD but (in this case) usually slow the cold air down too much to catch moisture.

I think they're coming. We just haven't had deep enough troughs to get them going yet.

Yeah, the upstate of SC up to your location have had bad luck the last couple of years. There's been numerous storms where you're suppose to get a big storm and it doesn't pan out. That's probably worse then the folks farther east that were never in the game to get anything.

I have no complaints, but there are folks in SE NC, SC ,and Ga that are in a long snow drought (maybe half the board??). I would love to see at least one deep south and coastal snow storm; even if I got shutout. It seems like its been ages since the last one.

Take a look at the latest FV3. But you might be a little too far north...

If we get the cold that's advertised, folks in south Ga, east SC, and coastal NC could get a huge storm. Many to the west may stay cold/dry (for a specific storm).

Indices continue to look good: PNA - Briefly gets to neutral in the short term but goes back positive into the LR NAO - Looks to go negative in the LR (this may help suppress our storm track) AO - Man it almost tanks off the charts (that's going to drive some cold air southward) http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml

Some of the coldest Januarys I've seen had very little snow. In those years it seemed February came through to save the day (...just from memory).

With the pattern change and with so much cold air moving into the US, I think we can only use the models out to about day 9. We're seeing big swings in the later days with each model run. The one big constant is the availability of cold air. It still may be early February until something pops, especially if we get unlucky with the day 10-16 period. But the euro weeklies and many mets think the rest of winter is going to be on the cold side. I think we're looking good. On a side note; many have posted what they would consider a good (A score) winter. I have four things: 1) Significant snow event (Check----already had the 12" in December) 2) Significant arctic outbreak, with at least a couple of sunny days with highs below freezing (looks like that is coming) 3) Significant winter event, which can be a mixed bad but has to limit driving, etc. (waiting) 4) Small winter event, which can be mixed bag but is picture worthy (waiting)

What's so fun about this GFS run, is there is another storm right after this one that gives all the folks shown with rain above a coastal snow storm. If a solution like this was to occur (exactly as modeled), North and South Carolina would have snow cover over all (mountains to coast) of both states. I don't think I've ever seen that.

RAH not very impressed with the snow chances next weekend, but I like their talk about the cold (gives me chills): Significant flow amplification, spanning multiple streams, is forecast next weekend into early next, with a resultant full latitude trough forecast to migrate from the cntl US on Sat to the East Coast by Mon, and following cross polar, nwly flow delivered all the way to the Sunshine State. Deepening low pressure will accompany the trough aloft and cross the srn-cntl Appalachians and middle Atlantic states late Sat through early Sun. While preceding mild, warm sector flow should envelop much of the sern US and Carolinas, some degree of cold air damming, from clouds and rain that will overspread the nrn and wrn Piedmont on Sat, may hold those areas in an appreciably cooler regime (40s), versus the growing warm sector 50s-60s elsewhere late Sat-early Sun. A half an inch to an inch of rain-soaking appears likely Sat night, with sharply colder temperatures --and the leading edge of 1040-1045 mb Arctic high pressure-- plunging across cntl NC Sun afternoon and night. A limited spatio-temporal overlap of departing deep moisture and incoming cold suggests any changeover from rain to snow on the back side of the frontal system would be very brief, on the order of an hour or two at most, and consequently light and non-impactful. More impactful will be the aforementioned incoming Arctic airmass, which will likely produce the coldest temperatures of the season, and a legitimate risk of sub-zero wind chill values, by Mon morning.

Here's day 16. If we still end up getting rain it will be rain storms over frozen ponds: Edit: Could you imagine the lake effect snows...

Fun run of the FV3. Out in fantasy land, but at ~ day 12/13 the arctic air really takes over. Looks like last January type cold. Even has a couple of small snow events. ~mid day on the 29th (even colder air is posed to come down afterwards):

i think Mother Nature is just messing with us. She says lets see how cold I can get it but keep the southeast rain.

The pattern is good but the run sucks. This is the opposite of what we're use to; where we normally need perfectly timed events to get snow. At hour 264 it's a perfectly timed event to turn us all to rain...

That would be nice. The good thing about having all this cold air around, is eventually we'll score something; in the form of a low developing on a front (above) or just by a clipper that's not currently modeled in the LR.

So the next thing for us to look at is late next weekend. The GFS would have a rain changing to snow situation; which we know usually doesn't work out. Looking out in the LR, there's really nothing that pops out except the for availability of cold. But nothing seems to be lined up and we tend to get cold air / warm ups / rain / cold air. The models have been showing this look for the last couple of days, but the way they've shown it has changed with each run. I think we still have a shot of something occurring during the next couple of weeks. As SnowDawg posted above, we could get one of these (modeled) app/lake cutters to get suppressed and we'll be in business. Here's RAH's write up on this weekend: There will be a gap in the rain Friday night and through much of Saturday before attention turns to a second low pressure system spurred on by a longwave trough diving down through the central CONUS. Models differ on low track with ECMWF decidedly north of the area and GFS more directly overhead. GFS also remains faster with the onset and exit of the precipitation as well. That being said, rain should begin Saturday night or early Sunday morning and last through Sunday night or early Monday morning. At this time all precipitation is expected to be liquid. Depending on if enough moisture remains after cold air moves in behind the system, there could be a brief period of snow showers or freezing rain but it is much too early to work out those details. Will keep the forecast dry at this time for early Monday morning.