FallsLake
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Everything posted by FallsLake
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That was a great run! Looks to be primarily snow for RDU for almost the entire event. Surface temps look good as well.
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And it's still snowing across a good portion of NC at that time. The low off the coast stalls. Not sure I buy this but it does prove we have many more days of varying solutions.
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Just got a chance to look at the models. One thing that's encouraging is the initial cold air that's in place. Of course we need the strong high to the north and a good storm track, but from my experience having nice cold air in place before a storm is crucial in these parts.
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You would assume or hope it's better than the old GFS. Not because of how this storm is modeled but because it's supposed to take over soon.
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I thought a gulf of Alaska low was good. It helps establish a western ridge.
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The overnight model runs continue to show the cool down for the end of the week. From RAH: It continues to appear that by next weekend, the first push of genuinely cool and dry air of fall will arrive behind the departing low pressure. Lows may actually dip into the 40s by next weekend, with highs in the 60s.
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First front comes in day 9, then talk about a shock to the system (~ day 12) :
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Yep, looks good. It even has dew points in the 20s for many; which if is the case, could be the first chance of frost for some. Again, lets get this within 7 days.
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I'm hoping it is. But the indices are still not favorable. PNA goes strongly negative and then attempts to get back to neutral. The AO averages positive, and the NAO continues it's 4 month positive run. But, the pattern waves are shorter this time of year. We can still get cool shots with an unfavorable pattern. http://www.cpc.ncep.noaa.gov/products/precip/CWlink/daily_ao_index/teleconnections.shtml
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I'm thinking this will be the real deal. Mainly because this ridge just can't hold for ever. On the flip side of things (meteorologically wise), I'm getting interested to see how long it can last. Wouldn't it be amazing (..in a bad way) if the ridge held all month; whereas many folks don't see lows in the 50s until November.
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Latest euro keeps the heat ridge strong through day 10. It even has a hurricane off the Florida coast.
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Well the 12z GFS has a cold front passage on day 12 whereas the Canadian has it on day 9. But, need to get the frontal passage within day 7 before I believe it.
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Eventually the fantasy range models will be right. There's been many false hopes going back into September, but this ridge wont stay anchored forever. It's getting colder to the north and the highs that can supply the cold/cool air are getting stronger. We'll get to a point were even a lake cutter storm will push a cold front through our region.
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It's part of the SE and is breaking many records. It's actually a good change. Discussion usually focuses on the Atlanta to RDU corridor.
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I feel for the Florida folks. We're way above normal in this part of the SE; but we are seeing more 80s/60s temps compared to summers 90s/70s. Florida is far enough south that basically the month of July (weather wise) is lasting for 6 months.
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As the east/ SE has been above normal, the NW into Canada has been cold/snowy. This is actually good (..at our expense), it builds up snow cover that can help build/maintain cold later in the year.
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So close, RDU down to 60 this morning. Maybe tonight. More likely on Sunday night but that would be Oct 1st when that occurred. So still a good chance that RDU doesn't see a below 60 night in September.
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Latest Euro is also on board for a big cool down next weekend. Still far out but gives us some hope.
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12z GFS has flipped from its earlier run and now shows a major cold front for the SE next weekend (8-9 days out). Do I believe it, not yet... Dew points for next weekend:
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Yeah the latest GFS shows no hope. There could be many areas that do not see lows in the 50s through the mid October. Usually we're tracking our first frost/freeze ~ mid October.
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Many of the analog years that have been floated around are CAD dominated; 2002-2003 is one of them (that was a fun year). And to be fair, I've seen a few analogs that were some of our worst years. But not as many. I think if we get our El Nino (..not strong and west) we'll be good. http://climate.ncsu.edu/climate/winter/database
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And the spiders. I've been running into webs every morning.
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12z GFS cooler for this weekend and early next week for NC northward. It shows lows in the 50s for northern NC into Va. Maybe I can open the windows for a few days.
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In this pattern we have to take what we can get. The latest 12z NAM has the CAD a little stronger for this upcoming Friday. **still it would be nice to get a "real" cold front to push through and give everybody on the board a break.
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The new south Florida!
