Cold Rain

  • Content Count

  • Joined

  • Last visited

About Cold Rain

  • Rank
    Snow Shields At Maximum
  • Birthday 02/26/1974

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
  • Gender
  • Location:
    Raleigh, NC
  • Interests

Recent Profile Visitors

5,578 profile views
  1. Thank you!! It's amazing to watch it snow. Seems like it's been forever. Coming down moderately. Can't wait for the heavier stuff later.
  2. All snow in SE Wake. Ground, cars, roofs getting frosted.
  3. I'd like to throw the Hrrrr out, but it's hard to do. It still eventually gets to snow but it takes a long time. Hopefully, it's wrong. I assume it's solely due to the boundary layer.
  4. DT seems way too bullish to me. I've noticed this before also. This isn't a perfect winter storm setup, if there even is such a thing anymore. Therefore, IMO, it's unwise to forecast near maximum possible snow accumulations. If we assume .5 qpf in Raleigh, which I don't think is unreasonable, you have to account for at least some rain and mixed precipitation. And that usually ends up being more than forecast by the pretty snow maps. That leaves about 2-3 tenths to fall as all snow. So, 2, maybe 3 inches seems within the ballpark of reasonable.
  5. I posted earlier. I honestly wasn't too keen on this one until yesterday. Been some kind of a boring winter so far. Maybe this turns the tide. LR stuff is dropping in the cold to end the season, so maybe we get another shot.
  6. That's much better. Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down. The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think.
  7. The transition to snow almost always takes longer than expected. I don't feel too optimistic on 10" totals around here, even in the sweet spot, wherever that ends up being. But I do think it will snow for a lot of people. The most likely scenario in my mind is a similar distribution of precip type, along the lines of what the NAM is showing, but with much lower totals. South of Raleigh will probably fight mixing issues for a good portion of the storm. I'd guess a 1-3" gradient across Wake and higher amounts of maybe 3-5" toward the VA border. The northern and central coastal plain will probably be the best area to see 4-6". Going to be hard to beat that unless a really intense band sets up and doesn't move. No doubt things could overperform. But they usually underperform, in spite of what the models are showing at this lead. If the HRRR doesn't come around and if the NAM keeps creeping north with the warm layer, and if other models like the GFS continue to warm, then we know that we're tracking toward a lower end event. This isn't an ideal setup, but it may be just good enough. Often, just good enough is the same as not very good, so we'll see how this one unfolds. We need good rates, and hopefully they will occur.
  8. To be fair, they are usually very conservative until the last minute. And this is still a low probability event, in terms of being impactful. If you start to see the Euro come onboard in the next couple of cycles, they'll start to bite a bit more.
  9. It has been forever since we've had a -AO or -NAO in winter. Seems like ever since the SAI stuff came out a few years ago, it's been straight positive.
  10. Haha I haven't seen that before either. On the other hand, I don't usually spray weeds at 40F. Anyway, saw the article that Fraz posted. Hopefully, it'll work ok when it warms up.
  11. Thanks man. Hopefully, it will dissolve back into a liquid again when it warms back up. What a mess!
  12. I went outside yesterday to spray some weeds with a new thing of Roundup that I bought from Lowes a couple weeks ago. It's been sitting in my garage since that time. I poured it into my sprayer and it was all a slushy. Anybody know why that is? @mackerel_sky ? Bueller? Anybody?
  13. I have noticed for about a month now, both the GEFS and GEPS continue to depict a similar look to the 0z GEPS at the end of its range. They both keep trying to take the EPO negative and place a broad trough in the east. The EPS has bitten a few times but generally hasn't been as aggressive and has done a much better job. For whatever reason, the EPO is resolute in wanting to remain positive. On another forum, I went back and looked at the non-Euro ensembles and posted day after day, showing those favorable LR looks that turned out nowhere near correct as verification moved inside D10. My guess is that we're going to end up killing H1 of Feb before the pattern becomes more favorable in general. Obviously, you guys will have a much better shot than our area, unless we get a some sort of blocking, which seems so elusive this year. Good thing is, the STJ remains active. So if we just get a decent window of cold air delivery, winter storm chances will increase rapidly, especially for you all.
  14. Well the internet if this post. Ould not have possibly been more wrong, unless your long nights are due to nightmares about 10+ January temperature departures. Winter is over (maybe that will work).