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Cold Rain

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About Cold Rain

  • Rank
    Snow Shields Down To 95%
  • Birthday 02/26/1974

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Raleigh, NC
  • Interests
    McRibs.

Recent Profile Visitors

4,966 profile views
  1. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Angus Barn. You'll love it. Bring your snow shovel. It'll probably be January.
  2. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    It very well could. I think the GFS and its replacement have both had a storm on and off during that time frame. The issue is going to be cold air delivery. I haven't yet seen a model depict adequate cold air for any legit wintry threat outside the mountains during this period, even though I have seen a few good tracks with the southern storm. We haven't been able to see Euroland yet, so we'll wait till it gets into the 10 day period. I'd like to see some high pressure up there though, instead of the parade of lows. The only shot it looks like we'll have is for a particularly strong northern wave to run deep enough south and lay down a little cold air right ahead of the storm and also act to keep it suppressed. It's a needle.
  3. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Not that we need to spend vast amounts of time analyzing a 10 day Euro map, but since we have nothing going on, it's fun to at least take a look at it. I like this view, as it may present some clues as to how things might evolve: You can see the Euro keeps the STJ going strong. This is a plus and will enable some of us to score easier than we normally would, even in a less than ideal pattern. The red area (EPO space) looks to be evolving favorably, going from low pressure to high pressure, facilitating a -EPO. The big pink blob over the NP needs to go. If the EPO space evolves favorably, then you'll see the pink area "migrate" toward Canada. The Yellow area needs some work as well. Having a lot of activity there means bouts of warm air intrusion into Canada and the Pac NW. We go rapidly back and forth from a +PNA to a -PNA as each wave crashes into the coast. The model looks to be sort of regtrograding this westward toward the Aleutians. Hopefully, that evolves into a low pressure zone in that area. This kind of pattern, until it changes into something more favorable will need good timing to produce anything other than rain. Fortunately, with the STJ remaining active, this may be easier to achieve than previous years. Hopefully, the EPO will become favorable, the strenuous activity off the NW coast will abate, and a PNA ridge will stabilize. I give that a decent chance of happening, if the model is correct here. Down the line, such a pattern combined with the elusive -NAO would be very favorable for wintry weather in the SE. The good news is, if the model is correct, we shouldn't be too far from having fantasy land threats start showing up again.
  4. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Lol Brick will never, ever go to a GTG. But you should come up anyway. I'll bet Frazdaddy can hook us up with a deal. He knows everybody!
  5. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    @mackerel_skywill say he will, and then he'll spend half the time driving loops around 540! I think he has family in the area, though. Mack, that right? I'm impressed with the FV3, in terms of how it did with the last storm. In recent winters, I don't believe we've been able to track a winter storm in from 7-10 days out. This one was a long-track deal.
  6. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    That's about right. The pattern doesn't look very exciting, but at least there are no signs of locking in any type of summer pattern for an extended duration. If the MJO keeps trucking around the horn, then we should start to see some type of wintry threat show up toward the beginning of next month. I'm a big fan of the STJ action we've seen so far (which looks to continue). It would be nice for some blocking to start showing up. I keep waiting on that winter after winter, but it never really materializes. I was thinking this winter would turn the tide, especially after what we saw in November, but so far, nada.
  7. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Skies are going to break again this weekend. What are the birds saying?
  8. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Yeah, that last frame is ugly. It'll change again next time. When we hitting the Angus Barn back up?!
  9. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2018

    Fake Version isn't in the holiday spirit.
  10. Cold Rain

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Hug the fake version 3.
  11. Cold Rain

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Nice! My wife just texted and said it's sleeting with a few flakes mixed now. You still just a cold rain?
  12. Cold Rain

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    I live off of Old Stage Rd., 3 miles down Rock Service Station almost to 42. Just 3 miles north of me had an inch more snow!
  13. Cold Rain

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    They just closed our office. So we'll call that a win. I'll drive back home, where I'm sure it's raining.
  14. Cold Rain

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Snowing big in downtown Raleigh now.
  15. Cold Rain

    December 8-10 Winter Storm Obs

    Picking up here. Visibility dropping rapidly to the west-southwest.
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