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Cold Rain

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About Cold Rain

  • Rank
    Snow Shields Down To 95%
  • Birthday 02/26/1974

Profile Information

  • Four Letter Airport Code For Weather Obs (Such as KDCA)
    KRDU
  • Gender
    Male
  • Location:
    Raleigh, NC
  • Interests
    McRibs.

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  1. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Greg Fishel out at WRAL. What a miserable way to end a miserable winter.
  2. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I don't know for sure, as I haven't researched it. When I look at a SST map, though, in general, there are plenty of places with warm anomalies that do not have ridging being continually forced. My guess is that the SER is a response. I'm sure there are some feedbacks at work, but generally, it is a response to the placement of negative anomalies elsewhere. What has been somewhat curious to me has been the frequency of the -EPO pattern in winters of late. I don't remember hearing all that much about that index before 4-5 years ago. But we sure have had a lot of -EPOs and an astonishing lack of -NAOs over the last while. This repeating configuration has certainly favored more central areas of the US than the SE. I don't have a sense as to how the PNA has acted over the last 5 years or so...I am remembering it being mixed, but it certainly could have been more positive or negative in general than I remember. What I do remember is not a lot of deep south and southeast snowstorms. Instead, we get this gradient pattern and front end mix events. I think that is a product of the EPO and lack of NAO. We don't get those southern sliders with cold highs to the north anymore. Everything reforms or cuts, courtesy of no blocking. But back to the SER, it really hasn't been a stable feature over the last several years. The thing that stings this year is that nobody saw it coming -- nobody really saw a -PNA/+SER back half of winter. I guess "backloaded" just don't mean what it used to. And by the time we're able to break the pattern, it will be beyond the reasonable window for winter weather, most likely. The GEFS and EPS look horrific as far as the eye can see. SOI diving, MJO allegedly circling favorably, but nothing but SERs down the line. We only get two, maybe three months of the year where we can be in winter weather mode, and to waste more than half of it in -PNA purgatory is really disappointing. Unless something drastically changes, this will go down as the worst winter ever for me. I'm sure that I've had 1" of snow or less in the past, but the expectations going into this winter are weighted heavily in my mind. We have had no really wintry days. By that, I mean one where we had a snow, sleet, or freezing rain event where it was just solidly below freezing all day and you didn't have to worry about the temps. I mean, we haven't even had a clipper come through forcing random snow showers. It's just been an awful winter. Solid F.
  3. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    There are pretty much no indications in any of the modeling over the next 10-15 days that suggests a turn toward colder weather. By the end of that period, the pattern may begin to change. But that is still far from certain. Whatever is driving this train wreck is locked and loaded for a long time. By the time we turn, it will likely be later in March. We may still sneak through a well-timed event, but you might as well flip a coin. All these intermittent colder solutions 6+ days out end up being warmer as you move in. Without a true pattern change, I a fear the chances of a big winter storm around here are slim to none. The SE ridge looks to really flex in about 10 days.
  4. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    The MJO is forecast to get into the cold phases, but the models seem to keep a SE ridge. Either they are wrong, or the MJO has become irrelevant.
  5. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Solar stuff: sunspot activity, solar winds, geomagnetic storms, coronal holes, etc. We’re going into a deep and extended solar minimum. Some theorize that it will lead to a cooler climate and harsher winters. Less sunspots and a cooler surface of the sun lead to more coronal holes which produce more cosmic rays. Still sort of a pick-‘em as to which side of the debate to believe, though personally, I lean toward the fact that it does/will play a significant role in our weather, particularly given the degree of this minimum.
  6. Cold Rain

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Ryan layeth the smacketh down!
  7. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Don’t get me wrong, I love me some OFA. We would have done well to heed their temp forecast around these parts.
  8. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Hahaha an area of mild and snowy surrounded in all sides by warm and wet or warm and dry. Lol
  9. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    They definitely did better with respect to temps in the SE, but that map is stupid. It is an abomination to forecast maps!!
  10. Cold Rain

    Southeast Sanitarium - A Place to Vent

    Yep, it was rolling our way there for a little while, and then it started hauling a$$ over to Siberia. Definitely going to go down as the worst winter ever in my book, unless we get one of those Marches of yore to show up. Most certainly, the expectations for this winter make it all the worse.
  11. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Yeah. They were wrong. I hope they’re wrong with the duration of this one because if not, we’re done.
  12. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Until the trough out west goes away, you can forget it around here. It just keeps reloading and reloading and reloading. Wonder why it never does that in the east?
  13. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I honestly don’t know if we should really expect a model to nail a winter storm from 6+ days out, given the technology we have today. I think a general pattern, maybe. But winter storms are so fickle around here, that it seems a little outlandish to expect we’re anywhere close to being able to get that kind of detail nailed down that far out. With the FV3, I’m interested to see if it gets the general H5 look 5-10 days out better than the current GFS and to see what kind of biases it has, if any. So far, my understanding is that its scores are not all that great and that it has a cold bias and a bias of overdoing the strength of highs at longer leads.
  14. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    Thinking the FV3 is overdoing the high strength and the duration of it. If it ends up weaker, like I suspect it will, then it needs to end up being quite a bit farther south, which I don't think is possible given the pattern.
  15. Cold Rain

    Mid to Long Term Discussion 2019

    I agree with this mostly, with the caveat that I’d argue that you actually have better than coin flip odds if you go with persistence and go warm. For whatever reason, warm wins now. Something is going on that essentially renders analogs of yesteryear useless.
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