And then, just like that, things turned back around lol. At least we don't have a super consolidated PV. However, the problem seems to remain with the Pacific. The NAO has helped suppress the storm track somewhat, but we can't seem to get a buildup of truly cold air to get transported into the SE. The LR looks like a mess right now, if you're looking for a real shot at a big SE winter storm, unfortunately.
Of course, the other day, things looked to be trending better. Guess that was a false start and things could look to turn around again in a couple of days.
The thing I tend to look at and weigh heavily when looking at LR model data is seasonal trends. The trends so far have been for a rare -NAO to be a stable feature and for the Pacific to remain unhelpful, regardless of what the models show beyond D10. Until we see a deviation from those things make it to within a few days of happening, it's probably best to just expect more of the same.