Cold Rain

I thought the same thing. It's a misleading tactic designed to be click bait.

Better than an extra long cold drought event!

Nice little chilly rain event. Good to keep the drought conditions at bay this time of year.

Can you do please do these updates at least 4 times per week? Thanks!!

Going to be an eye-strainer!

Great read, Grit! I hope you bust too warm!!

That's awesome. I think our area might crash all the way down to the upper 20s one night. A few days ago, I remember seeing a 12. Models seem like they might struggle by overdoing temps just a little bit in the long range.

100% agree. Take it and run. All day long!

It is hard to believe that we will get as cold as the models are hinting at next week. Lows below 20? That would be a pretty amazing feat for mid-November. I bet we'll see some moderation in that forecast over the next few days.

Fall is coming! Starting to look chilly as we roll towards Halloween.

Still a whole lot to iron out, and the question you raise depends on when and where it makes landfall. If landfall is along the central SC coast and it moves inland, the transition should start occurring soon after, sending the shield NW. If it stays off the coast and makes landfall farther north, the rain shield wont get too far west.

It's really amazing how many times tropical cyclones parallel the SE coast.

This is awesome. I will be able to get a better view of the snow melting above my head this winter!

Good. We'll expect the rainy pattern from last week to repeat over and over this summer!

The winds upstairs are going to be at the upper end of what we usually see around here. RE: the NAM, I do not trust its depictions of CAPE or meso lows and such right now. It always looks scary severe weather-wise. I won't say there's zero tornado risk because we just don't know yet. At this point, what we do know is that there are some things look likely and some things look possible. It looks likely that instability will be limited, due to an elevated warm layer and a largely overcast sky. It looks likely that there will be a lot of wind energy aloft that can be easily tapped. It looks likely that there will be a lot of rain, and the soil will be easily saturated. It looks likely that flooding will be a concern. It looks likely that even if winds remain below severe limits in most areas, downed trees would still be a concern, due to the aforementioned soil conditions. It is possible that instability will be higher if breaks in the cloud cover occur (hard to tell at this lead). It is possible that a meso-low forms, backing the low level winds and increasing the tornado threat, at least for eastern areas. It is possible that convection earlier in the day reduces instability by the time the main forcing comes through, thus reducing the wind threat. The main take-aways for me right now are that the potential is there for widespread wind damage reports, resulting from a squall line. There is not yet enough clarity or broad support to justify anything higher than an Enhanced Risk at this point, IMO. I certainly wouldn't be using the word "historic" yet. It is possible that things could change for the worse. But that is not the most likely scenario, based on the data available right now.

Strongly agree with all of this.

Same here. Thought you would have done a bit better. Maybe we can get a March Miracle.

How much did you get in December?

12 hours still might be a bit early, but it would probably be at least within the window of appropriate lead time for a thread this year.

That’s awesome. Will we finally be able to get one stick around till the100 hour mark?

Saw a couple of flakes on the way into downtown Raleigh this morning. Of course, that's not all that unusual for a drive in.

It snowed a bit here in SE Wake and then went to sleet then rain. We got about an inch of slush. That was it for the winter.

I saw 10 minutes of snow in the December storm. Unfortunate that we couldn't buy any cold this year.

Hard to get too bullish yet, given our history of watching 7+ day threats warm up on the way in. But we're in the final innings and the signal is strong for a storm. Hopefully, it won't trend north too badly.

That's not bad...it seems to be within a few degrees. I think the whole "overperform" thing is subjective because it's a nebulous term. If it was supposed to be 50 and it ended up in the 30s, I'd say that overperformed. If we were supposed to get all rain, but instead we got mostly rain with a few sleet pellets and wet snowflakes mixed in for a half our. I'd say that performed as progged. For a good "overperforming" CAD, where you get much more frozen over a much wider area than the models thought 5 days out, you need the source region really dry and very cold and have the high build in a good 6 hours prior to the precipitation falling...not coincident with or after the bulk of it has fallen. We need dews in the teens at least to get a good overperformer around here.