Cold Rain

I’d much rather see that at this lead than a big storm.

Big picture definitely shows a change is underway. It's not a winter storm pattern for most yet, but that doesn't mean a perfectly-timed event can't happen. Anyway, longer range tools continue to suggest we're moving in the right direction. But at some point, the operationals will lock in on that. When a good winter storm pattern actually gets close enough to worry about, the operational models will pick it up. Right now, they're bouncing around with where they want the trough to set up and where the PV is placed. So far, they have not locked in on a good winter pattern. But at least the change is underway, and we look to be stepping down colder. The good thing is, cold is nearby now, but we're going to have to wait and see if a suppressed flow actually sets up and whether or not we can get the right configuration up north to allow high pressure to set up in a good location. In the meantime, we can drool over the long range ensembles and hope they're onto something. Although they often show better depictions than the operational models in the LR, due to smoothing, they should be a bit more accurate this time, given the myriad well-reasoned predictions of a back-loaded winter. But at some point, when we're really on the doorstep of a good winter storm pattern, the operationals will pick it up and hold it. We're still probably 10 days away from that at least. That's probably what the anxiety is about.

No, you’re right. That’s what the GFS shows.

Lol that seems ridiculously confusing.

IMO, the storm in December has no bearing on the rest of the winter, not that anyone is saying that it is. I’ve seen several times the stat about we don’t usually get more than one big snow event. While true, I don’t see the value in such a metric, as it pertains to how the rest of the winter is likely to play out. It would be the same as if we hadn’t gotten a big storm already and someone used the same stat in a “we’re due” manner. It only really matters as a footnote. Realistically, more than half of the winter is left, and we likely haven’t even gotten into the most favorable climo period or pattern that we are likely to see. I’d say, based on that, the odds of another significant winter storm or two are fairly high.

Going to be another winter of Miller Fs and mixed bags. Wonder if we’ll ever get a real snowstorm again.

Yeah, the ACC is pretty stacked this year. You guys will no doubt do very well. I’m still not sure about the Pack, in terms of their consistency. Most of the players are new (transfers) this year. But they play with a really good energy and attitude. Going to be a fun season.

Storms do not track through southern GA, southern SC, or northern FL in winter anymore. The will track through the southern part of any other state in the US but not those three.

When you’re having to rely on the ICON, the CMC, and backside snow, you are in sad shape.

Timing and better “seeing” of the CAD may cause a few more south ticks before it’s all said and done. But I certainly don’t like seeing the north jumps that have occurred lately. But that’s fairly typical. Hopefully, the models are underestimating the degree of damming.

He was probably getting it on with their girlfriends. Anyway, congrats to the Heels on a good win. Can’t give a good team 200 second and third and fourth chance shots. Kevin Keatts is a winner.

Let me know if that runs off the page to the right and I’ll delete it. Posting from my phone and it was giving me a hard time with selecting the appropriate section.

RAH sounds really bullish this far out. Really good discussion. There remains little to no change in forecast rationale from 24 hrs ago, with average to above average forecast confidence in the overall pattern, but below average confidence in details. The middle Atlantic states will be firmly influenced by cold, continental polar high pressure extending from the upr Midwest to the Carolinas through the end of the week. 850 mb temperatures trailing a pair of polar fronts that will cross cntl NC tonight and Wednesday are forecast to nadir around minus 11-12 at GSO by 12Z Thu. Related cold air advection will support a strong nwly breeze, amidst a deeply mixed boundary layer, even nocturnally Wed night, with wind chill values in the teens through late morning Thu. Although the wind will subside by Thu night, the presence of a "break-off", 1030 mb surface high over the wrn Carolinas Fri morning will support colder air temperatures - mostly between 20 and 25 degrees. High temperatures will be similarly chilly, in the upr 30s to mid 40s Thu and perhaps a 2-3 degrees less cold on Fri. While the aforementioned mid-upr low/trough will lift newd and away from the nern US through the end of the week, renewed nrn stream amplification, with a few distinct shortwave troughs embedded within, is forecast to occur from cntl Canada to the cntl Appalachians Fri-Mon. At the same time, a srn stream shortwave trough is forecast to migrate across the srn US, likely immediately preceding the nrn stream troughs (ie. slightly out of phase), through Sat-Sat night. None of those features, most borne from the large, deep cyclone over the ern/e-cntl N. Pacific this morning, are not forecast to reach the NOAM rawinsonde network until 12Z Thu; and it will likely be the 00Z Fri NWP runs that provide a marked boost in model agreement and forecast confidence - after those features will have been sampled twice by the upr air network (12Z Thu and 00Z Fri), and previous model run initialization influences been dampened by hopefully "better" data. Further complicating the forecast by D6-7 --and possible continuation of large scale ascent, deformation, precipitation production over the middle Atlantic states-- will be the degree of Arctic stream amplification across the sern Canada/Great Lakes/Northeast vicinity, as well as the ejection of additional srn stream energy beneath a developing Rex block over the wrn CONUS. Despite those complexities and details, the overall pattern will be one supportive of cyclogenesis from the GOM to the middle Atlantic coast, with a track and intensity close to the preferred GEFS and EPS means. Specifically, such a solution is unlike the wrn outlier 00Z/8th deterministic GFS track, which favors an inland track through ern NC and warmer solution for cntl NC; and it is closer to the 00Z/8th deterministic ECMWF track (ie. more offshore and colder for cntl NC), and stronger. Additionally strong confluence aloft over the nrn middle Atlantic states and Northeast, though to varying degrees given the uncertainties aloft described above, will favor a well-positioned, and strong, cold high extending across the middle Atlantic states - one that will provide sufficient cold air to support measurable snow across parts of the middle Atlantic Piedmont, including probably the climatologically-favored nrn and wrn NC Piedmont, from late Sat-early Sun, and potentially longer.

So far, it looks like a pretty classical CAD setup. And, the air mass should be colder than December, so I’d expect a bigger deal, if these trends continue.

They got beat stoopidly. Pretty amazing actually.

ZR is only self-limiting when there isn't a continuous feed of cold, dry air. Long as you got a high in the right spot, funneling in cold, dry air, it can freezing rain for days.

That's a pretty good configuration for a southeast winter storm. It would be nice to have some snow cover established up north to refrigerate the air being transported in here. I would definitely favor very western zones with this one.

Happy New Year, folks!

We can’t seem to get more than one, maybe two cycles in a row with that kind of evolution at the end. If the experts are to be right, we’ll probably start seeing it pretty soon. Hopefully nchailstorm’s corona doesn’t run out.

Unfortunately, it doesn’t look like 1-2 days of cold will be showing up anytime soon. I’m seriously starting to think that the entire month of January is toast. I really was optimistic about this winter finally being a good one too. Maybe February will turn out ok. It fits with all the analogs. We’ll see.

The pattern looks atrocious for the foreseeable future. The only encouraging thing is the theory that the last half of the winter will be good. Of course, pretty soon that will probably move from late January and February to February only, much like it has moved from mid-January to now late January. The MJO has stalled twice now and looped in the bad phases. Want to place a bet on how many times it does so in the good phases?

SE Wake. Horrible place to live.

Even in the crappiest winters I got at least a bit of sleet, zr, and a few flakes of snow, which is all I got this winter so far. Literally 1-2 miles down the road from me got 3” with the December storm. I expect winter to get better. But so far it has sucked rolyally so far for me.

Must be nice. So far, this ties the worst winter ever for me.

No worries on that dude. Hope you feel better!