Cold Rain

That is good to know. Thanks man!

Haha I haven't seen that before either. On the other hand, I don't usually spray weeds at 40F. Anyway, saw the article that Fraz posted. Hopefully, it'll work ok when it warms up.

Thanks man. Hopefully, it will dissolve back into a liquid again when it warms back up. What a mess!

I went outside yesterday to spray some weeds with a new thing of Roundup that I bought from Lowes a couple weeks ago. It's been sitting in my garage since that time. I poured it into my sprayer and it was all clumpy...like a slushy. Anybody know why that is? @mackerel_sky ? Bueller? Anybody?

Well the internet if this post. Ould not have possibly been more wrong, unless your long nights are due to nightmares about 10+ January temperature departures. Winter is over (maybe that will work).

I've been watching the CFS, GEFS, and GEPS for days now, and they have been showing a pretty good pattern evolving late in their respective runs. Even the EPS has show a decent evolution, albeit it has been steadfast on no -EPO. I have been watching the Euro Op for the last few days at the end of its range, and it hasn't looked very good, for the most part. It's shown pretty much what we're most likely going to see next week...a semi-zonal, fast flow with snapshot, transient cold. And it continues to drop the PV across the pond. The GEFS, GEPS, CFS, and even today's EPS continue to look good at the end of their runs. But this 10-15 day cold pattern that stays 10-5 days away sure is getting old. The fact that we're getting no consistent hints of blocking (AO/NAO) continues to be a problem for us. That doesn't look to change any time soon. The EPO? Maybe. But I'm not excited by the MJO developments over the last couple of days. We need blocking to return. Really bad. I was really excited about entering a colder (as in wintry) pattern over the last few days, but that's waning a little. The 10-15 day cold pattern has got to work inside of that time frame. At least it's going to be a bit more seasonal. It will still be wet, so the rain won't be as warm. Maybe north and western areas can time something out, as well as (just shoot me) the Outer Banks, until we actually get some legitimate cold in here with some staying power. Hopefully, that will take shape earlier in February than later. But I'm kind of disappointed in the way things have developed. But unfortunately, I'm not surprised.

Flow is pretty fast with just one wave after another. Progressiveness is likely the main battle to fight here, especially with no blocking. That said, things are pretty close for eastern areas, as it stands right now, many days out.

The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast. I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks.

Great animation, and it's nice to see from the EPS. Certainly feels like it's just a matter of days before we're tracking a legitimate threat.

That is fairly robust. Will be nice when we get to run that for a shorter time frame and see a similar image.

Go check out Pivotal or Weathermodels. They are still up. 384 looking lit!

The persimmon seed analysis is a pretty good way to go as well. Anyway, it's nice to see hints of blocking in the NAO region. If (big if) it sets up, my guess is that it may not be quite as transient as it appears at present. Long way to go, though. Assuming we continue to see the pattern progress and don't get a rug-pull, you guys are going to do very well. Given how active the pattern has been, and I don't see any reason for that to change, it's only a matter of time. Again, assuming we don't start kicking the can and this is, indeed, the real deal. It certainly looks like it is, for a change. It's been a long time since we've had real cold injected into an active southern stream...at least it has for us down in my area.

He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right? How are the GEPS looking?

It's best to look at H5 here. This is not a "keep the storm to the south" look. Dont let the surface pressure map fool you. High pressure can look good, but if it's not being anchored or reinforced, it will move out as a storm moves in, giving the illusion that the storm is plowing into a block. If I had a nickel for every time I've heard how a storm can't plow into a high pressure area....

Probably about the best I've seen that model look, ever. It usually seems to show warm. Or maybe I only notice it when it shows warm.

What I'd like to see happen is something similar out west to what the GFS shows: Have that low pinch off underneath the block to its north. The Euro moves in that direction by 240, but it doesn't look as good. It would turn into a good pattern for the east with a continued active STJ and cold highs dropping out of the north.

Yeah, the 6z GFS was the first real Op model run in a long time that evolves to a legitimate wintry pattern that would provide several non-trivial opportunities for a widespread winter storm.

I live right on the boundary between the two darkest gray zones, right next to the SE county line. Yes, that map makes me want to vomit. It will play out exactly like that too. I don't know why there is always a poleward surge of the snow gradient right in that area. You would think that one time, it would be the inverse, just by the law of averages. But nope.

Yeah, the EPS is looking pretty good out in la la land. Gotta look good out there before it gets in here, I guess. Hopefully, we will see several runs back to back with that look and have it actually progress in closer this time.

Looking forward to getting past the half-way point in Jan. Should see some signs of life showing up pretty soon. Somewhere near the beginning of H2 January, we'll be tracking our first legitimate threat.

What a mess in the long range. All features are still basically opposite of what we want. How does that even happen all the time now? MJO looks like a disaster going into phase 5.

It walked away from the big wound up PV over the pole, a little bit, toward the end. Even looks to try to fire up a -NAO.

Happy Thanksgiving!!

That's awesome. I think our area might crash all the way down to the upper 20s one night. A few days ago, I remember seeing a 12. Models seem like they might struggle by overdoing temps just a little bit in the long range.

The winds upstairs are going to be at the upper end of what we usually see around here. RE: the NAM, I do not trust its depictions of CAPE or meso lows and such right now. It always looks scary severe weather-wise. I won't say there's zero tornado risk because we just don't know yet. At this point, what we do know is that there are some things look likely and some things look possible. It looks likely that instability will be limited, due to an elevated warm layer and a largely overcast sky. It looks likely that there will be a lot of wind energy aloft that can be easily tapped. It looks likely that there will be a lot of rain, and the soil will be easily saturated. It looks likely that flooding will be a concern. It looks likely that even if winds remain below severe limits in most areas, downed trees would still be a concern, due to the aforementioned soil conditions. It is possible that instability will be higher if breaks in the cloud cover occur (hard to tell at this lead). It is possible that a meso-low forms, backing the low level winds and increasing the tornado threat, at least for eastern areas. It is possible that convection earlier in the day reduces instability by the time the main forcing comes through, thus reducing the wind threat. The main take-aways for me right now are that the potential is there for widespread wind damage reports, resulting from a squall line. There is not yet enough clarity or broad support to justify anything higher than an Enhanced Risk at this point, IMO. I certainly wouldn't be using the word "historic" yet. It is possible that things could change for the worse. But that is not the most likely scenario, based on the data available right now.