Cold Rain

DT seems way too bullish to me. I've noticed this before also. This isn't a perfect winter storm setup, if there even is such a thing anymore. Therefore, IMO, it's unwise to forecast near maximum possible snow accumulations. If we assume .5 qpf in Raleigh, which I don't think is unreasonable, you have to account for at least some rain and mixed precipitation. And that usually ends up being more than forecast by the pretty snow maps. That leaves about 2-3 tenths to fall as all snow. So, 2, maybe 3 inches seems within the ballpark of reasonable.

I posted earlier. I honestly wasn't too keen on this one until yesterday. Been some kind of a boring winter so far. Maybe this turns the tide. LR stuff is dropping in the cold to end the season, so maybe we get another shot.

That's much better. Snow map was anemic, but it should look pretty coming down. The HrrrrRrRrr isn't quite as good, I don't think.

The transition to snow almost always takes longer than expected. I don't feel too optimistic on 10" totals around here, even in the sweet spot, wherever that ends up being. But I do think it will snow for a lot of people. The most likely scenario in my mind is a similar distribution of precip type, along the lines of what the NAM is showing, but with much lower totals. South of Raleigh will probably fight mixing issues for a good portion of the storm. I'd guess a 1-3" gradient across Wake and higher amounts of maybe 3-5" toward the VA border. The northern and central coastal plain will probably be the best area to see 4-6". Going to be hard to beat that unless a really intense band sets up and doesn't move. No doubt things could overperform. But they usually underperform, in spite of what the models are showing at this lead. If the HRRR doesn't come around and if the NAM keeps creeping north with the warm layer, and if other models like the GFS continue to warm, then we know that we're tracking toward a lower end event. This isn't an ideal setup, but it may be just good enough. Often, just good enough is the same as not very good, so we'll see how this one unfolds. We need good rates, and hopefully they will occur.

To be fair, they are usually very conservative until the last minute. And this is still a low probability event, in terms of being impactful. If you start to see the Euro come onboard in the next couple of cycles, they'll start to bite a bit more.

It has been forever since we've had a -AO or -NAO in winter. Seems like ever since the SAI stuff came out a few years ago, it's been straight positive.

That is good to know. Thanks man!

Haha I haven't seen that before either. On the other hand, I don't usually spray weeds at 40F. Anyway, saw the article that Fraz posted. Hopefully, it'll work ok when it warms up.

Thanks man. Hopefully, it will dissolve back into a liquid again when it warms back up. What a mess!

I went outside yesterday to spray some weeds with a new thing of Roundup that I bought from Lowes a couple weeks ago. It's been sitting in my garage since that time. I poured it into my sprayer and it was all clumpy...like a slushy. Anybody know why that is? @mackerel_sky ? Bueller? Anybody?

I have noticed for about a month now, both the GEFS and GEPS continue to depict a similar look to the 0z GEPS at the end of its range. They both keep trying to take the EPO negative and place a broad trough in the east. The EPS has bitten a few times but generally hasn't been as aggressive and has done a much better job. For whatever reason, the EPO is resolute in wanting to remain positive. On another forum, I went back and looked at the non-Euro ensembles and posted day after day, showing those favorable LR looks that turned out nowhere near correct as verification moved inside D10. My guess is that we're going to end up killing H1 of Feb before the pattern becomes more favorable in general. Obviously, you guys will have a much better shot than our area, unless we get a some sort of blocking, which seems so elusive this year. Good thing is, the STJ remains active. So if we just get a decent window of cold air delivery, winter storm chances will increase rapidly, especially for you all.

Well the internet if this post. Ould not have possibly been more wrong, unless your long nights are due to nightmares about 10+ January temperature departures. Winter is over (maybe that will work).

I've been watching the CFS, GEFS, and GEPS for days now, and they have been showing a pretty good pattern evolving late in their respective runs. Even the EPS has show a decent evolution, albeit it has been steadfast on no -EPO. I have been watching the Euro Op for the last few days at the end of its range, and it hasn't looked very good, for the most part. It's shown pretty much what we're most likely going to see next week...a semi-zonal, fast flow with snapshot, transient cold. And it continues to drop the PV across the pond. The GEFS, GEPS, CFS, and even today's EPS continue to look good at the end of their runs. But this 10-15 day cold pattern that stays 10-5 days away sure is getting old. The fact that we're getting no consistent hints of blocking (AO/NAO) continues to be a problem for us. That doesn't look to change any time soon. The EPO? Maybe. But I'm not excited by the MJO developments over the last couple of days. We need blocking to return. Really bad. I was really excited about entering a colder (as in wintry) pattern over the last few days, but that's waning a little. The 10-15 day cold pattern has got to work inside of that time frame. At least it's going to be a bit more seasonal. It will still be wet, so the rain won't be as warm. Maybe north and western areas can time something out, as well as (just shoot me) the Outer Banks, until we actually get some legitimate cold in here with some staying power. Hopefully, that will take shape earlier in February than later. But I'm kind of disappointed in the way things have developed. But unfortunately, I'm not surprised.

Flow is pretty fast with just one wave after another. Progressiveness is likely the main battle to fight here, especially with no blocking. That said, things are pretty close for eastern areas, as it stands right now, many days out.

The one next week is really not that far away from getting really interesting really fast. I have a feeling that there are going to be a lot of long nights over the next couple of weeks.

Great animation, and it's nice to see from the EPS. Certainly feels like it's just a matter of days before we're tracking a legitimate threat.

That is fairly robust. Will be nice when we get to run that for a shorter time frame and see a similar image.

Go check out Pivotal or Weathermodels. They are still up. 384 looking lit!

The persimmon seed analysis is a pretty good way to go as well. Anyway, it's nice to see hints of blocking in the NAO region. If (big if) it sets up, my guess is that it may not be quite as transient as it appears at present. Long way to go, though. Assuming we continue to see the pattern progress and don't get a rug-pull, you guys are going to do very well. Given how active the pattern has been, and I don't see any reason for that to change, it's only a matter of time. Again, assuming we don't start kicking the can and this is, indeed, the real deal. It certainly looks like it is, for a change. It's been a long time since we've had real cold injected into an active southern stream...at least it has for us down in my area.

He cancelled winter a couple of weeks ago, right? How are the GEPS looking?

It's best to look at H5 here. This is not a "keep the storm to the south" look. Dont let the surface pressure map fool you. High pressure can look good, but if it's not being anchored or reinforced, it will move out as a storm moves in, giving the illusion that the storm is plowing into a block. If I had a nickel for every time I've heard how a storm can't plow into a high pressure area....

Probably about the best I've seen that model look, ever. It usually seems to show warm. Or maybe I only notice it when it shows warm.

At the risk of being ICBM'd, how are the solar winds looking? It looks like a colder pattern is starting to show up in the LR. I am assuming that the solar winds are slowing down?

What I'd like to see happen is something similar out west to what the GFS shows: Have that low pinch off underneath the block to its north. The Euro moves in that direction by 240, but it doesn't look as good. It would turn into a good pattern for the east with a continued active STJ and cold highs dropping out of the north.

Yeah, the 6z GFS was the first real Op model run in a long time that evolves to a legitimate wintry pattern that would provide several non-trivial opportunities for a widespread winter storm.