Cold Rain

50-100 miles NW over two days. When does that not happen? Lol. If I was in downeast, Shaggy, and weatherNc country, I’d be super excited! Maybe even eastern Wake could end up picking up a sprinkle.

Falling snow is the only thing that impacts snow shield strength, unfortunately. Also unfortunately, the 0z Nam did us no favors. You usually get one Nam run that sucks you in with heavy qpf or favorable trends. The 18z was probably it. But then again, maybe the 6z bounces backs. We’ll see.

Sunday night/Monday-ish.

One thing to note, the NAM has been behind quite a bit here, so it's kind of playing catch-up. Need to watch the FV-3, UK, and Euro. Maybe the GFS and CMC after that.

Column is cold, guys. Surface layer is above freezing, initially. Unless you get a coastal hugger or inland tracker, you won't have to worry much about a warm nose. Probably won't get that far west, though. Light precipitation will probably be rain. Heavy precip will most likely be snow. Still too close to call either way, but the trends have been pretty good. We're running out of time, but it's good that things are quite close to something as opposed to needing a 1000 miles of corrections.

I saw that too. Doesn't add up at all.

A few more tweaks in the right direction is going to make a huge difference in the ultimate outcome. It is really that close in the upper levels.

Need to wait till the pole shift completes.

It's trickier to put together a storm in the SE than to have one tracking across the entire southern tier, where we can watch it all the way in. But like Gboro said above, the southern jet probably isn't going anywhere. The Euro books the MJO through phase 6 now, and even the GFS is perking up in that regard. I don't see us transitioning away from a cool/cold pattern for too long. And with all of the various shortwaves moving through, we could pop a storm at any time. It's the type of pattern where you likely won't get a lot of lead. I've been burned so many times over the last several years relying on northern stream stuff. Missed storms to the north, west, south, and east. But that said, there's no good meteorological reason to be overly pessimistic here.

I don't see how we can say definitively things are shot for the next two weeks when there is a good deal of cold nearby and a lot of energy in the flow. That doesn't make sense to me. I agree that this isn't a blockbuster winter pattern, but winter weather has been found in more hostile patterns types than this.

Somebody with EPS access can hopefully eyeball it and tell us what the EPO looks to do in the LR. It looks to stay negative through D10 looking at the Euro Op. At 168, the EPO isn't configured in an ideal fashion, but my guess is that the calculated value is still negative. The PNA value is likely negative also. Either way, the configuration of the atmosphere isn't conducive for max cold and a super suppressed storm track in the SE. However, there is enough ridging in eastern Canada to push the PV south. Probably a cutter or Miller B pattern. But not warm: At 240, the block north of AK has strengthened, and it looks to be trying to connect with the ridge that has now gone back up over the western US. This would keep the SE cold and hopefully give more of the area a better shot at winter weather, eventually, particularly if the NAO region would respond a little. If the model went out another couple of days, you'd probably see colder values work SE: Anyway, it's not an incredibly useful exercise to analyze a 10 day model. But this doesn't look too bad for an MJO in Phase 6 or whatever. Someone with EPS access can confirm whether this solution is supported by the ensembles and what the next several days after might hold. Overall, I'm optimistic on how the rest of winter plays out, pattern-wise. While I don't think we ever come close to getting the holy grail pattern, we should have several more legitimate opportunities to put something together storm-wise. The ingredients should all be available, and we should avoid utter hostility. Whether or not we can put them together remains to be seen.

There's plenty of potential in the pattern over the next 10 days or so. We probably relax for a bit after. I suspect it will be short-lived before turning colder once again with another couple of opportunities.

Yeah I think we can safely say that after a week or so of below normal, the pattern is pretty much going back in the crapper. Maybe by late Feb, we’ll have another shot at a cold blast.

Yeah pretty much. There’s been quite a bit of run to run flipping. The earlier GFS, for instance had a big time -NAO. This one, not so much. I’m not sure the pattern is going to turn favorable and then break down immediately, especially if we can get the mjo into the better phases.

That would translate to some chilly surface temps. I doubt the magnitude of that kind of cold around here. But still, having an expansive arctic air mass in the vicinity, with a nice snow pack to the north, will definitely widen the window for some wintry weather around these parts.

Or the QB doesn't get ousted for point shaving. Things do look to be aligning better now, though. At least cold is showing up frequently in the pattern now. And it would be hard to believe that storm chances dry up, as active as things have been.

You do NOT want energy to start getting shunted out into the SW and off the west coast, causing a trough out there unless you have a big time west -NAO pressing the vortex south. You don't want it split either, having a piece over western Canada and one over eastern Canada with a weakness in the middle for storms to work into. This is not a good look at all. Fortunately, it's the 0z 384 Op GFS. So it's unlikely to evolve this way. The 6z looks like this. Even worse:

Yesterday's 12z FV3 was about as good as it gets from about 270 on, in the way it evolved the pattern. Today's guidance, virtually across the board, is to back the western ridge out west and sneak energy into the SW. If that turns out to be accurate, and I'm not saying that it is, that puts the storm track west of us and puts us back into a holding pattern, waiting yet another few days to get a better trough/ridge alignment and/or blocking. All of that is allegedly coming.

Frank Deal was the best. His jokes were so corny, but he was such a likable guy and loved winter weather. Couldn’t wait till the weather came on. Randy Jackson wasn’t nearly as enjoyable to watch, IMO, but I’m sure he was pretty good.

Thanks, Bob. That's cool...it usually goes the other way.

Good question. It's somewhat subjective, but it's pretty close. In the first image, the black lines represent the upper level shortwave energy in the southern jet stream. Usually, a low will form out ahead of that energy, north of the base. In this case, I'd expect surface reflections of various strengths somewhere near the red Xs. Even if no strong surface low forms, the upper level energy depicted here could still provide enough lift for precipitation. The second image shows the shortwave energy more clearly. I've circled it. It's a long way out, and who knows what the energy will look like in terms of how strong it is or how it will be oriented. But the pattern is a good one, and if it turns out to evolve that way, you can bet that there will be energy flowing through the pattern. Let's get the pattern to move into the short term, and we can start to look more closely at the shape and strength of any shortwaves that are there. Hope this is helpful.

I like this look a lot at the end of the FV3. This is what we want. Usually, these aren't worth looking at. But given where we *should* be headed, we'll probably see more of this type of configuration showing up:

I’d much rather see that at this lead than a big storm.

Big picture definitely shows a change is underway. It's not a winter storm pattern for most yet, but that doesn't mean a perfectly-timed event can't happen. Anyway, longer range tools continue to suggest we're moving in the right direction. But at some point, the operationals will lock in on that. When a good winter storm pattern actually gets close enough to worry about, the operational models will pick it up. Right now, they're bouncing around with where they want the trough to set up and where the PV is placed. So far, they have not locked in on a good winter pattern. But at least the change is underway, and we look to be stepping down colder. The good thing is, cold is nearby now, but we're going to have to wait and see if a suppressed flow actually sets up and whether or not we can get the right configuration up north to allow high pressure to set up in a good location. In the meantime, we can drool over the long range ensembles and hope they're onto something. Although they often show better depictions than the operational models in the LR, due to smoothing, they should be a bit more accurate this time, given the myriad well-reasoned predictions of a back-loaded winter. But at some point, when we're really on the doorstep of a good winter storm pattern, the operationals will pick it up and hold it. We're still probably 10 days away from that at least. That's probably what the anxiety is about.

No, you’re right. That’s what the GFS shows.