Cold Rain

Maybe, but waiting for winter to start is hard. It sucks wasting half of the winter. At least we’re not torching. It’s just unfortunate that there is no cold air anywhere nearby.

Yup. Winter.

Merry Christmas, folks! May God bless you and your families today and throughout the new year!

Overnight LR guidance looking pretty good. Lots of good signs showing up as we get into January!

Yes sir. I noticed that for the first time in days, all four GFS overnight runs began to look a bit better at the end. I'm guessing they are rushing it, like you said, but it's going to be nice to see some good pattern consistency start to show up at the end and work its way in.

Seems pretty rare to see the CFS actually predict cold a month out.

We're so close to a eclipsing 1996 at RDU, we might as well go ahead and break it.

Where you seeing that?

Euro has a deep trough and closed ULL also. Wish it was colder and some folks could get some snow. Mountains should pick up some, but it looks unlikely for anyone else.

SSSSSSSSSSW ftw!!

Angus Barn. You'll love it. Bring your snow shovel. It'll probably be January.

It very well could. I think the GFS and its replacement have both had a storm on and off during that time frame. The issue is going to be cold air delivery. I haven't yet seen a model depict adequate cold air for any legit wintry threat outside the mountains during this period, even though I have seen a few good tracks with the southern storm. We haven't been able to see Euroland yet, so we'll wait till it gets into the 10 day period. I'd like to see some high pressure up there though, instead of the parade of lows. The only shot it looks like we'll have is for a particularly strong northern wave to run deep enough south and lay down a little cold air right ahead of the storm and also act to keep it suppressed. It's a needle.

Not that we need to spend vast amounts of time analyzing a 10 day Euro map, but since we have nothing going on, it's fun to at least take a look at it. I like this view, as it may present some clues as to how things might evolve: You can see the Euro keeps the STJ going strong. This is a plus and will enable some of us to score easier than we normally would, even in a less than ideal pattern. The red area (EPO space) looks to be evolving favorably, going from low pressure to high pressure, facilitating a -EPO. The big pink blob over the NP needs to go. If the EPO space evolves favorably, then you'll see the pink area "migrate" toward Canada. The Yellow area needs some work as well. Having a lot of activity there means bouts of warm air intrusion into Canada and the Pac NW. We go rapidly back and forth from a +PNA to a -PNA as each wave crashes into the coast. The model looks to be sort of regtrograding this westward toward the Aleutians. Hopefully, that evolves into a low pressure zone in that area. This kind of pattern, until it changes into something more favorable will need good timing to produce anything other than rain. Fortunately, with the STJ remaining active, this may be easier to achieve than previous years. Hopefully, the EPO will become favorable, the strenuous activity off the NW coast will abate, and a PNA ridge will stabilize. I give that a decent chance of happening, if the model is correct here. Down the line, such a pattern combined with the elusive -NAO would be very favorable for wintry weather in the SE. The good news is, if the model is correct, we shouldn't be too far from having fantasy land threats start showing up again.

Lol Brick will never, ever go to a GTG. But you should come up anyway. I'll bet Frazdaddy can hook us up with a deal. He knows everybody!

@mackerel_skywill say he will, and then he'll spend half the time driving loops around 540! I think he has family in the area, though. Mack, that right? I'm impressed with the FV3, in terms of how it did with the last storm. In recent winters, I don't believe we've been able to track a winter storm in from 7-10 days out. This one was a long-track deal.

That's about right. The pattern doesn't look very exciting, but at least there are no signs of locking in any type of summer pattern for an extended duration. If the MJO keeps trucking around the horn, then we should start to see some type of wintry threat show up toward the beginning of next month. I'm a big fan of the STJ action we've seen so far (which looks to continue). It would be nice for some blocking to start showing up. I keep waiting on that winter after winter, but it never really materializes. I was thinking this winter would turn the tide, especially after what we saw in November, but so far, nada.

Skies are going to break again this weekend. What are the birds saying?

Yeah, that last frame is ugly. It'll change again next time. When we hitting the Angus Barn back up?!

Fake Version isn't in the holiday spirit.

Hug the fake version 3.

Nice! My wife just texted and said it's sleeting with a few flakes mixed now. You still just a cold rain?

I live off of Old Stage Rd., 3 miles down Rock Service Station almost to 42. Just 3 miles north of me had an inch more snow!

They just closed our office. So we'll call that a win. I'll drive back home, where I'm sure it's raining.

Snowing big in downtown Raleigh now.

Picking up here. Visibility dropping rapidly to the west-southwest.