Cold Rain

It's getting about time for some packbacker up in this mug. I like where the indexes are headed. I'm not too sure about the magnitude of the cold that will be around here the first part of December, though. We seem to have a plethora of southern sliders, which is good. But I want to see some high pressure systems of decent strength start appearing to our north and northwest, before I seriously consider a widespread SE winter storm to be a legit possibility.

What have you done with mackerel_sky?

Nice looking evolution!

The upper air features look pretty good, but the temps don't cold enough (for down here), as the source region isn't all that frigid. The Fake Version 3 looks a little more promising, though.

Moisture-robbing thunderstorms only ever occur when all other factors actually fall into place for a major winter storm.

FYP!!

Good post. I'm not all that thrilled about the tendency for lower heights in the SW. I hear year after year about how that's ok because it can lead to overrunning events. In my area, we need a really good trajectory from the NW via the EPO/upper PNA region and a strong west -NAO to counter the trough in the SW. That usually doesn't happen (especially the -NAO part). This year may be different though, so we'll see. Anyway, the end of the two week period could feature a legit window for the eastern half of TN/western NC and NE from there. Beyond that, it's hard to find any indication of a hostile winter. There's a lot to be excited about going into this year -- about as much as you can ask for, actually.

That's one of the coldest, if not the coldest, Jamstec depictions I have ever seen.

Thanks for posting these. I'd like to see the lower heights moved a bit to the south. But otherwise, pretty good. Do they show month by month temp anoms or just the d-f period?

No problem. Yeah, I always equate it to the eye of a needle. You're always threading the needle when it comes to SE winter weather, especially when it comes to a snowstorm vs. mixing events. Having a favorable alignment of indexes gives you a bigger eye. But you still need the thread and a steady pair of hands lol!

-EPOs are good for mixy events around these parts.

It's not binary (as in strongly negative vs. slightly negative). We like to use it as a general measure of wintry potential. And it's fine to do that in a "general" sense. But it's a lot more complicated when you get down to the details of a winter storm. West vs. East-based, strength, change in strength, change in sign, orientation of the block, are all dynamic variables that matter. You can get a big storm or a big bust with any combination of those, as there are other big pattern drivers acting at the same time. But generally, a -NAO is what we want. The rest of it becomes a game day decision.

Add the -EPO and go for the quad.

I'd go PNA and AO. You can have a -NAO and -AO but if you get a screaming pac jet, you'll be enjoying a nice cool rain, at least outside of the mountains. You need a delivery of cold into the US. -PNA is a direct way to do that. The -NAO is icing and will lock it in and slow the storm track, if it's configured the right way. The -AO (and also a -EPO) will tend to seed the source region with cold so that it can be delivered into the US.

I didn't know you were in Raleigh! The skies have healed quite nicely here.

Great work, as usual, Grit! Always enjoy reading your outlook. Well done!

Doesn't look quite as good as previous runs, unless I'm not looking at it correctly. It doesn't seem to indicate very much in the way of a -NAO, at least until possibly February. It does, however, seem to indicate fairly robust western ridging along with a southern storm track. So that is good. At least there are no oranges and reds over us.

Yep, as per consensus, December is the mildest of the 3 winter months, though, he hedges that it could be colder. AN snowfall TN valley, SE, mid-Atlantic, and southern NE, with the axis of highest anoms through TN and the upper SE. Temps generally -3 - -5.

Maybe they’re finally remembering that we always get dry slotted and just getting it out of the way early, instead of finally getting to it as the sun is coming out during the storm.

That, and it’s interesting. Sunny skies and warm temps for days on end is boring.

I hope by TN Valley he means MS and AL and by lower mid-Atlantic he means SC and FL.

He's going with anti-Nino conditions, it looks like. I think his graphics program accidentally horizontally inverted the color scheme.

Happy birthday!! It is a beautiful fall day. Hope you have a great one as well.

Fortunately, we don't have anything to worry about this year. All I see is an El Nino-looking pattern with several fronts and some Gulf waves traversing the area. The 0z GFS did have a Lakes Cutter, but I don't think that qualifies.

We might get a monster east coast storm.